The Sopranos’ grasp of football strategy was absolutely baffling

The Sopranos had a lot to say about morality, family and the anti-heroes that have become commonplace in the years since Tony Soprano first showed up in therapy.

HBO’s greatest offering ran across nearly a full decade and gave the world 86 episodes to contemplate how much everyday evil we can live with. It painted awful people in shades of gray. It took seeds planted by The Godfather and Goodfellas and allowed them to blossom into one of the most compelling television shows ever broadcast.

It also had zero awareness about how football worked.

One of the family’s many illicit streams of revenue came from its sports books (sadly, we’ll never get to hear Little Carmine rail against “Fan Kings” or whatever malapropism he’d apply to legalized wagering). In multiple situations, main characters lost money because the writers behind them seemed to have no idea how football teams operate on the field.

This persisted even after one of the NFL’s most recognizable veterans joined the cast. Tony Siragusa, who passed away Wednesday, played a bit role in The Sopranos as Frankie Cortese, one of Tony’s drivers and bodyguards across a four-episode stint in season five. But even his presence couldn’t convince the folks behind the scenes into writing a football (betting) sequence that made logical sense.

This has been bothering me for years. Now we’re gonna talk about it.

Episode: Fortunate Son, Season 3, Episode 3

via HBO

First off, The Sopranos has very strong and wildly inconsistent opinions about kickers. This is going to come up later.

Here’s the situation that, spoiler alert, causes Christopher Moltisanti to rob Perez Hilton at Jewel’s benefit concert at Rutgers. USC leads Pac-12 rival Oregon by 12 points. The Ducks have the ball at the Trojans’ 45 late enough in the fourth quarter — and with no time outs — that Moltisanti isn’t sweating the 11-point spread. Until he’s informed Oregon has an All-American kicker.

Seconds later, the Ducks have drained a 63-yard (!) field goal to turn a two-possession game into… a two-possession game. The only reason Oregon would have done this is to spite bettors and cover the spread. If this happened in 2021, gambling Twitter would have absolutely melted down.

Also, this is the shot of the television as Oregon triumphantly boots a field goal from beyond midfield to cut the lead to single digits:

via HBO

This is not a show that respects football fans.

Episode: Fortunate Son, Season 6b, Episode 4

Tony suffers an absurd bad beat here, rubbed in by what appears to be an elaborate heckle at the expense of the Buffalo Bills.

Buffalo trails Tampa Bay 24-22 late in this game. The Bills have the ball at the Bucs’ 30-yard line. In a reasonable football world, this is where a 48-ish-yard field goal would win the game. Tony’s got Tampa at +3 and says he’s happy to settle for a push, which is effectively impossible with 12 seconds left.

The announcers give us a great JP Losman name drop, then cut to a player who is clearly not JP Losman. He takes the snap at the Tampa 10 as what’s ostensibly the Bills’ attempt to center the ball for a game-winning kick is… a toss sweep?

via HBO

This leads to a fumble, which the Buccaneers recover. Rather than take a knee to end the game, Tampa fumbles the ball back to the Bills, who fumble it once more before recovering and running it into the end zone as time expires. Buffalo wins 28-24, Tony’s bet is trashed, but to make up for it the audience gets to linger on this unofficial member of Bills Mafia.

via HBO

This is, arguably, the only thing The Sopranos ever got 100 percent right about football.

Episode: Fortunate Son, Season 6b, Episode 4

via HBO

lol don’t do this.

Anyway, Tony’s stuck throwing good money after bad, in part because the Bills have utterly broken him. He decides to bet against Miami because the team’s kicker is hurt and the backup is a rookie. This matters zero percent:

via HBO

Actually wait, spiraling out of control with a wager way too large for completely inscrutable reasons? Maybe The Sopranos knew more about NFL betting than I gave it credit for.

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