The Raptors Have The Money, But Are They The Best Fit For Norman Powell This Summer?

Norman Powell is going to have a very very tough decision to make this summer.

At one point this year the question about Powell’s future came down to whether or not he would opt-in to his $11.6 million player-option and stay with the Toronto Raptors for another season. Looking back on it now, that question seems almost comical.

Since stepping into the starting lineup on January 22, Powell has led the Raptors in scoring, averaging 23 points per game on 53% shooting with 46% 3-point shooting. The question now isn’t so much if he’ll opt-in or opt-out of his contract, but rather how much he’ll want in this summer.

For Powell, it’ll come down to money and fit.

The 27-year-old shooting guard has repeatedly expressed a desire to be a starter in the NBA. Not only does he see himself as a starter, but he says he plays better as a starter because the rhythm and feel of starting are more conducive to his style of play. For a long time, Toronto wasn’t a place that could offer that to him. He was the third guard on a team that started two extremely talented guards. That, however, has since changed as the Raptors have opted to go small, starting Powell alongside Fred VanVleet and Kyle Lowry without a true centre on the court.

But what happens if Toronto were to add a centre this season or in the offseason while maintaining its current backcourt? Then what? Bring Powell off the bench again? As he heads into free agency this summer?

As long as the Raptors have Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam on the roster, Powell will always be at the very least third fiddle on a very talented team.

If that’s not something Powell wants, the alternative is to go elsewhere this summer where he’s guaranteed a starting spot and could potentially the focal point of a middling team’s offence. On Wednesday night against the Detroit Pistons, he showed just how talented he can be as a team’s go-to guy, leading an undermanned Raptors squad with 36 points on 14-for-20 shooting.

Everything in Powell’s game screams offensive difference-maker this season. He’s become one of the best pull-up 3-point shooters in the NBA, nailing 59.9% of his attempts, per NBA Stats. He leads Toronto’s transition unit more often than anyone else, averaging 1.22 points per transition possession this season, per NBA Stats. On spot-up possessions, he’s essentially the best on the team and in the 79th percentile in the league. And while he doesn’t usually run Toronto’s pick-and-roll, he’s in the 95th percentile for the league as a pick-and-roll handler on 2.4 attempts per game, the third-highest on the Raptors, according to NBA Stats.

Players with that kind of offensive arsenal get paid a boatload on the open market.

This summer the New York Knicks will have plenty of cap space to go after a player like Powell. So too will the San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets, and depending on how things go with a Blake Griffin buyout, the Pistons could have the money to bring in Powell too.

When this season comes to an end, Powell will have made $32 million in the NBA —  not including the money he makes doing Osmows commercials — and he’ll be heading for a real payday. The Raptors will have the money to make him an offer, but if he wants to be The Guy, Toronto isn’t going to be the best fit.

Further Reading

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What we know about Toronto’s COVID-19 issues