The Packers Are a Fun Story, But That Doesn’t Make Them Real Contenders
Packers #Packers
Green Bay has reeled off four straight wins, but we can enjoy this run for what it is even if no deep playoff run is coming.
In a postgame interview on the field after his Packers kept their playoff hopes alive with a 41–17 win over the Vikings, Aaron Rodgers correctly listed in order the reasons this team has freed itself from the blender of irrelevance.
• Keisean Nixon—in an era in which the return game has gone by way of the home encyclopedia—has logged a game-altering play nearly each week since Thanksgiving, and ripped off a 105-yard touchdown that stunned an unprepared Minnesota kickoff unit.
• Jaire Alexander played one of the best games a cornerback has logged against an elite wide receiver in the past half decade, holding Justin Jefferson to one catch for 15 yards. This was complete with a spirited rendition of Jefferson’s touchdown dance, the Griddy, after a broken up pass. Vikings fans are so worked up that their Reddit page requires a tin foil hat in order to enter.
• Linebacker De’Vondre Campbell came back to the lineup in December.
Then, and only then, did Rodgers mention an offense which, yes, has finally looked a little less disjointed than it has in months past. Readers of this space already knew this was going to happen. It was inevitable that a quarterback as skilled as Rodgers would be able to smash enough colors and brushstrokes together to make something we could rub our chin and look at with some faux intellectualism. It has not been a Rembrandt by any stretch, but it’s a little like those nice landscapes some hobbyists sell at the local coffee shop. Art is art. Let’s not be picky. It’s better than anything most of us could put together.
This is not a criticism. In many ways, this could be one of Rodgers’s most impressive seasons. As he mentioned in a second postgame interview, the horrid start to the year, this stretch of victories which place Green Bay in a win-and-in scenario for Week 18, the potential of this being one of his final NFL seasons and his own personal journey these past few offseasons have amalgamated into something worth appreciating.
But, please, spare us from the idea that this team is a missile headed for Glendale prepared to upend the playoffs.
When the Packers finalized Sunday’s monstrous win over the Vikings, giving them a 62% chance of reaching the playoffs (according to FiveThirtyEight), the immediate reflex was to ponder their strength as legitimate contenders. The surface-level idea—a team with Rodgers heating up deep in the regular season—makes for a nice tease heading into a halftime segment for Jason Garrett to mull over. In practicality, the Packers would need an otherworldly stretch from their running game and an unsustainably hot stretch from other critical role players, such as Nixon and Alexander. They would need more of what Rodgers knows is working.
The Packers are not fluky. They do, however, seem like a team that is getting a lot of its gifts at the right time. On Sunday against the Vikings, Kirk Cousins was intercepted three times and lost a fumble. In their now four-game winning streak (including games against the Bears, Rams and Dolphins), the defense has forced 12 turnovers. That’s the same number they forced in their first 12 games leading up to this streak. They defeated the Dolphins on Christmas with three fourth-quarter interceptions and a net negative expected points added per snap total offensively.
This is a long way of saying that I would be more scared as an AFC team of the Jaguars sneaking into the playoffs than an NFC team of the Packers gaining the seventh seed. This shouldn’t diminish the run, but it should add some perspective.
The bottom rung of the NFC playoff picture might end up being GOAT-heavy. Tom Brady will host a playoff game after torching the Panthers for 432 passing yards and three touchdowns (plus another score on a QB sneak). Have the Buccaneers’ offensive woes been solved, or did the Panthers simply forget to adequately account for Mike Evans, one of the best wide receivers in the NFL? The trap will be set for us to salivate over the fever dream of some matchup that would headline a bygone day, when in reality, there are some incredible, vibrant, consistent teams at the top of each conference that are far more viable a presence.
It’s O.K. for us to recognize that there are legendary quarterbacks who will be in the postseason but may not be much of a factor once they get there. Again, this is coming from the person who stood on a soapbox for both of them back in October when it appeared both were more likely headed toward a LIV Golf promo round somewhere. Rodgers will certainly not balk at the opportunity to prove us wrong, but he seems to know, at this point, where much of the on-field goodwill has come from.