The Maple Leafs might owe Frederik Andersen, but paying the going rate seems unwise
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Frederik Andersen spoke the words with conviction.
“I know I’m a great goalie,” he said back in April.
It didn’t seem to faze him that, around the same time, Andersen had piled up plenty of evidence to the contrary, losing five of six decisions before a five-week disappearance with an undisclosed injury preluded what might turn out to be his anticlimactic swan song as a Maple Leaf — a loss to the Senators.
Which only makes sense. If you’ve spent any time around Andersen during his five-season run as a Toronto goaltender, you know he’s a consummate professional who wholly believes the quality of his work is intrinsically tied to the depth of his dedication. For the bulk of his career with the Leafs, nobody has spent much time questioning either. You don’t climb to the top of the ladder of big-money pro sports, as unforgiving and cutthroat as it is, without a self-assuredness occasionally bordering on the delusional and a work ethic to match.
Considering Andersen has turned his humble beginnings in small-town Denmark into an NHL career that’s impressive by any measure, it’s safe to say he’s got both the confidence and the commitment in quantity.
Still, no matter how much Andersen believes in his greatness, it’s fair enough to wonder how many NHL teams will be willing to bet he’s correct.
Andersen, after all, is coming off the worst season of his NHL career by a lot of measures. In a year ravaged by injury and inconsistency — and he’d no doubt like the world to believe the health concerns led to the slump — he put up his worst save percentage (.895) and worst goals-against average (2.96). After four seasons of largely stellar regular-season work as the hardest-working puck-stopper in the league, his wobbly fifth season proved undeniably costly.
Now facing impending free agency without the benefit of any recent success, he’s asking would-be suitors to cast their memory back to his better days while ignoring the not-so-good stuff that’s more top of mind. He has appeared convinced his career resumé will be enough to attract offers.
“I know what I’m worth,” Andersen said back in April.
That may be true. But there’s no denying he’s negotiating from a difficult place. He’s undoubtedly got a lot to prove. He’s only asking to get paid before he provides the on-ice evidence.
Never mind redeeming last year’s injury-marred setback. The big question that hung over Andersen in the lead-up to last season had nothing to do with his play in the regular season. Had Jack Campbell not arrived with his Cinderella storyline, and had Andersen been Toronto’s go-to post-season choice in the crease, his long-term viability in Toronto would have been measured largely on his short-term performance in the first round of the playoffs — and ideally beyond.
Alas, it wasn’t to be. And if you’re the Leafs — given the ongoing search for that elusive killer instinct, among an off-season shopping list that’s already long — maybe goaltending can be framed as one of the least of your worries.
Campbell’s rise to No. 1 status was one of the great stories of an otherwise lamentable season. He was magical in winning 11 straight games to begin his Leafs tenure. And as much as the memory of Campbell’s Game 7 whiff on a Brendan Gallagher knucklepuck will live in infamy among Toronto’s litany of big-moment lowlights, make no mistake: Campbell was solid in the playoffs — certainly solid enough for the Leafs to beat the Canadiens. The fact he’s under contract for another year at a cap-friendly $1.65 million (U.S.) is a considerable coup. In some minds, all the Leafs need to do is secure a credible backup and they’re set.
That approach, of course, would overlook a considerable risk factor. Campbell’s gymnastic style, to some expert eyes, doesn’t look to be built for the potentially heavy lifting of the 82-game grind. And even if those concerns are unfounded, in a career in which the 29-year-old Campbell has never started more than 26 games in a single season, he has yet to prove he can endure it. While Toronto’s previous aversion to prioritizing depth in the crease has built a local assumption that the reigning starter ought to be good for, say, 64 games a season — Andersen’s annual average number of starts during his first three seasons in Toronto — it’s hard to imagine it would be wise to push Campbell to such limits.
Even during last year’s truncated 56-game schedule, after all, he missed time to injury on three separate occasions. And it said something about Toronto’s faith both in Andersen’s playoff readiness and Campbell’s grind-worthiness that management made the pre-deadline decision to acquire David Rittich as the kind of contingency that hasn’t always been a franchise priority.
It says that Toronto probably needs goaltending options beyond Campbell and Michael Hutchinson, the latter of whom is also signed for next season for $725,000. To that end, reports that Andersen and the team have talked aren’t a surprise, even if it’s reasonable to wonder if the discussions aren’t more a sign of mutual respect than a real indication of an imminent renewal of vows. Maybe Andersen swallows humble pie and takes a pay cut on a bet-on-yourself short-term deal with an eye toward re-establishing what he sees as his rightful value.
Still, even a reduction on his most recent cap hit of $5 million seems pricey given the combination of his struggles and Toronto’s cap troubles. Which is unfortunate, to say the least. Andersen can certainly make a case the Leafs owe him something. For all the years Mike Babcock drove him like a proverbial rented mule, and for all Toronto’s missteps in attempting to identify a viable No. 2 while Andersen all but begged for a lessened workload, the big Dane bore the burden with a willing competitiveness and a good-guy smile.
Just as Andersen believed in himself, he also wholly believed in his team and its direction. But in another summer of uncertainty in Leafland, where the impending greatness of the Maple Leafs has morphed from article of faith to subject of skepticism, maybe the limits of such convictions are being exposed for what they are.
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