The Maple Leafs have real lineup questions to sort out before the playoffs

EDMONTON — Sheldon Keefe was understandably steamed after the Oilers rolled his team with Jake McCabe and Sam Lafferty in the lineup for the first time.

“We just didn’t play with any purpose or intelligence,” Keefe said afterward.

It’s going to be a frantic final six weeks for the Leafs head coach. It’s up to Keefe to take all the new puzzle pieces that GM Kyle Dubas has brought in — six players and counting — and determine how they best fit together for the playoffs.

That’s the goal here for Keefe for the remainder of the regular season: Figure out which lineup has the best chance of succeeding in the playoffs.

The D

The biggest, thorniest determinations are definitely on defence.

Luke Schenn and Erik Gustafsson join a group that for now goes nine deep. (Jordie Benn has slid all the way down to 10th on the depth chart.) It’s possible and probable that the front office moves someone out before Friday’s deadline. Morgan Rielly, T.J. Brodie, Jake McCabe, and Mark Giordano aren’t going anywhere. The Leafs acquired Schenn for a reason.

Which leaves Gustafsson, Justin Holl, Timothy Liljegren, and Conor Timmins.

The Leafs could simply flip Gustafsson, a pending UFA, elsewhere for a pick if anyone’s interested (or waive him). They could do the same with Holl, another pending UFA who seems to have lost the coaching staff’s confidence a bit of late. He’s also an important culture guy who’s performed well in the postseason and made himself noticeable, at the very least, in the loss to the Oilers. (I would keep him.)

Then there’s Liljegren. The Leafs have already moved Rasmus Sandin. It’s hard to see them parting with Liljegren, a 24-year-old who’s signed for next season ($1.4 million cap hit), and still emerging on the right side.

The Leafs only just extended Timmins for another two seasons ($1.1 million cap hit). He doesn’t figure to play in the postseason unless injuries strike, so moving him out wouldn’t really accomplish anything.

Another option: Keep everyone.

Injuries happen. Keefe would rather have more options than fewer in the postseason.

“We’ve got lots of competition, lots of support for the group if there’s injuries or whatever the case might be,” Keefe said of the defence before facing the Oilers. “It’s a good problem for me to have.”

As for the shape of the group, everything feels like it’s in play. Not one pairing is likely to be written in Sharpie at this point.

The first course of action for Keefe: Determining whether McCabe fits well with Brodie.

“We think it’s an easy, natural fit anytime somebody plays alongside Brodie,” Keefe said. “I think the fact that both guys are strong defenders, both guys move the puck well, all those kind of things — I think it has the potential to be a real good pairing for us.”

A really good pairing in the way that Jake Muzzin and Brodie were against Tampa in the playoffs last spring.

That’s what the Leafs need to figure out, whether the McCabe-Brodie combo is their best option for top-line combat, for going head to head against Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos in Round 1, Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak, and Brad Marchand in Round 2, and Patrick Kane and Artemi Panarin in Round 3.

Brodie will figure into those duties regardless. The question is whether it’s with McCabe, who spent most of this season in Chicago battling top competition with Seth Jones.

It’s hard to take much from such a lacklustre performance from the Leafs as a whole. But for what it’s worth, McCabe and Brodie spent about five minutes together against McDavid at five-on-five. Expected goals were around 50 percent and the Oilers, crucially, were kept off the scoreboard.

“Jake’s gonna play hard and heavy and be strong around our net and be really good defensively,” John Tavares said of his new teammate.

Keefe figures to move McCabe around. If he wants to reconnect Brodie with Rielly, for instance, McCabe might well line up with Holl (assuming he sticks around).

That’s the other large consideration here: Who plays with Rielly?

Take Brodie away and suddenly there’s no slam-dunk option. Not everyone is able to hang with the Leafs’ top defenceman. His unpredictability seems to flummox certain dudes. It takes a certain type of defenceman to be comfortable at his side.

Smart. Steady. Experienced for the most part. Able to bail Rielly out. Able to cover for him.

Brodie is that guy. Ron Hainsey was too. Matt Hunwick was serviceable back in the day. Even Ilya Lyubushkin made a go of it last season.

Holl has gotten the most opportunities there — outside of Brodie — this season, including in Edmonton.

The pairing got dinged for a pair of goals in Edmonton and was nearly exposed again when Leon Draisaitl snuck between the two early in the second period.

Overall this season, the Leafs are about even in both the actual goals and expected goals departments.

Not great.

The only high-usage pair (min. 100 minutes) that’s been a hair worse in terms of expected goals: Rielly with Liljegren.

Which is why Keefe might have to at least contemplate trying McCabe on the right with Rielly at some point.

Rielly — McCabeBrodie — HollGiordano — Liljegren

It’s also likely that Schenn gets a look there.

He spent much of this season playing alongside another go-go-go style of offensive defenceman in Quinn Hughes. The Leafs could plug Schenn onto Rielly’s right and try to approximate the look they had in last year’s postseason when Lyubushkin — also big, snarly, and physical — played next to Rielly.

Schenn wouldn’t play huge minutes in that case (or in any case, really). Lyubushkin averaged just under 14 minutes a game against Tampa.

That’s kinda how Tampa used Schenn during their back-to-back Cup runs. They dropped him in for shifts with Victor Hedman and Mikhail Sergachev. Schenn was in and out of the lineup, sometimes as the Lightning’s seventh defenceman. He averaged 11 minutes in 11 games in 2020 and nine minutes in eight games in 2021.

Plug Schenn in with Rielly (leaving McCabe with Brodie) and Keefe/Chynoweth will have to decide who ends up with Giordano.

Liljegren has moved past Holl in that regard of late. And yet, defensive results mostly favour the Giordano-Holl connection. That was where the Leafs ended up against Tampa last spring.

And when the chips are down, I wonder if this is the team’s best playoff look (assuming Holl isn’t dealt):

Rielly — SchennMcCabe — BrodieGiordano — Holl

Liljegren has the edge on Holl for now though. Can he keep in front?

The defence has suddenly become very competitive that way. The stretch drive will be a real proving ground for Liljegren and Holl especially.

“I think there’s always competition. It’s a very competitive league,” Holl said. “The reality of the situation is if you don’t play well enough you won’t be in the league for long.”

Is there a non-injury scenario that springs Gustafsson into the lineup somehow?

Up front

Things aren’t locked in up front either.

Ongoing is the determination of who best fits with Ryan O’Reilly. It didn’t take long to see that Tavares and Mitch Marner would fit nicely there. William Nylander has shined in the Marner spot more recently, though that line was chopped up by the third period against Edmonton.

There’s still a world in which O’Reilly ends up in the 3C spot, bumping Tavares back to centre. We saw that look exactly in the third period on Wednesday night.

Bunting — Matthews — MarnerJärnkrok — Tavares — NylanderKerfoot — O’Reilly — LaffertyAston-Reese — Kämpf — Acciari

That doesn’t feel optimal though.

The Leafs have already seen that Tavares in the middle against Tampa is a dicey proposition. O’Reilly insulates him. He also belongs in the top six, playing big minutes with high-end linemates.

There’s less to sort out at the bottom of the lineup.

Now that David Kämpf’s top running mate, Pierre Engvall, is gone, Keefe has to decide who fills his spot. Kerfoot got the first run against the Oilers and like most things, it didn’t go well. He’s still the likeliest to end up there (assuming he’s not dealt).

Arguably, the Leafs most effective line in Edmonton was the new-look threesome of Lafferty alongside Noel Acciari and Zach Aston-Reese. There’s real Bruins/Penguins blue-collar energy with that threesome (which makes sense given that Lafferty and Aston-Reese both played in Pittsburgh while Acciari once played in Boston). They created meaningful O-zone pressure early on with their persistence and physicality.

That line will be the least of Keefe’s worries down the stretch.

He’s got plenty of bigger things to contemplate and sort out. And 21 games now to do it.

(Top photo: Andy Devlin / NHLI via Getty Images)

Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick