The Liberals may be expecting a narrow win in Aston, but they’re far more nervous than Labor about what’s at stake

Ask any Liberal MP this week what’s going to happen at the Aston by-election on Saturday and the typical response is a nervous pause, followed by a not entirely confident assertion that they should win.

Liberals expect their candidate Roshena Campbell to hold the seat in Melbourne’s outer eastern suburbs, but only just. Former minister Alan Tudge clung onto the seat at last year’s election with a reduced margin of 2.8 per cent. Liberals expect, at best, Campbell will achieve the same margin.

That’s not much of a buffer and there’s a real risk the seat could fall to Labor in this first head-to-head electoral contest between Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton.

In a sign of just how concerned Liberals are, the party’s federal director Andrew Hirst has taken a hands-on approach. He’s spent five-and-a-half weeks living in a local hotel in the electorate running the campaign.

Roshena Campbell (left), a barrister and former Melbourne City councillor, is seen as a strong candidate.(AAP: Julian Smith)Why are the Liberals nervous?

Campbell, a barrister and former Melbourne City councillor, is seen as a strong candidate who’s not saddled with the baggage Tudge carried last May.

While not living in the area — a point Labor has played up — she has campaigned hard on local concerns, particularly the government’s decision to scrap three major road projects in the electorate.

While the cost of living is the number one concern everywhere, polling shows voters simply aren’t attaching blame to the government (at least not yet), despite Dutton’s best efforts. The local infrastructure focus in Aston is proving to be more fertile ground for the Liberals.

A defeat in Aston would mark a further suburban rejection of the Liberal Party.(ABC News: Mark Moore )

History would also suggest the Liberals should hold on — it’s held the seat since 1990.

Aston is Liberal heartland and, as is often pointed out, no government has won a seat from an opposition at a federal by-election in more than a century. Indeed, by-elections on average produce a 3.8 per cent swing against the government of the day.

So why are Liberals so anxious? The biggest reason by far is the shift in voter sentiment since May. Brand Labor is now stronger now than it was at the election.

The weeks leading up to the by-election have been dominated by the Prime Minister making substantial, nation-changing decisions and announcements(ABC News: Adam Kennedy)

Albanese is no longer an opposition leader trying to win the electorate’s trust. He’s a popular prime minister getting on with big stuff: striking a deal with AUKUS partners on nuclear submarines, reaching an agreement with Indigenous leaders on wording for the Voice referendum and passing a climate policy through parliament with the support of the Greens and business groups.

The weeks leading up to this by-election have been dominated by the prime minister setting the agenda with nation-changing deals and decisions, which (according to opinion polls) all carry solid voter support.

The Liberal Party in Victoria, by contrast, has been making news by tearing itself apart over a state MP who spoke at an anti-trans rights rally crashed by neo-Nazis.

What a Liberal loss would mean

Within Labor, Aston is viewed as a classic Liberal seat. The chances of flipping it aren’t seen as strong, but there’s quiet optimism. And, inevitably, politicians on all sides are contemplating what would happen in such a scenario.

There’s no sign defeat in Aston would lead to any immediate move on Dutton. He’s only been in the job 10 months and is widely credited by Liberals for at least keeping the party united in that time. Nor does the party have any obvious alternatives, but the focus on potential options would certainly sharpen in the event of a bad result on Saturday.

A defeat in Aston would be about more than the leader, it would mean something worse — a further rejection of the Liberal Party in the suburbs.

This has been the trend of the three most recent elections in Australia. Urban electorates turned against the Liberal Party at the federal election in May. And again at the Victorian election in November. And then again at the NSW election last weekend. 

In Melbourne, a city of more than five million people, the Liberal Party now holds only three of 23 urban seats: Aston, Deakin and Menzies. It holds more on the urban fringe — including Casey, La Trobe and Flinders — but losing Aston would mean the Liberals hold only two metropolitan seats in the city on track to be Australia’s largest.

The women factor

To address this slide, a group of Liberals known as the “Metropolitan Members” has been gathering each parliamentary sitting fortnight. This week, around 10 Liberal MPs turned up for the meeting and were presented with a stark set of data points.

According to Census data, professional women are the fastest growing and now largest segment of the workforce. At 14 per cent, there are more professional women in the workforce than professional men (11 per cent), technicians and tradesmen (11 per cent), women in community and personal services (8 per cent), or men in community and personal services (3 per cent).

Of the 20 federal seats with the highest concentration of professional women, the Liberals now hold just one — Bradfield, which comes in at 20th.

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The Liberal Party is already struggling to win over professional women. And the trend is not its friend. It needs to find a way to appeal to this growing segment of the workforce in both wealthy “teal” seats and mortgage-belt suburbs.

A bad result in Aston, with no Scott Morrison to blame, would confirm that the suburban drift away from the Liberal Party continues. It would heighten internal debate over policies and personnel, testing the unity that’s existed since May.

Liberals might be expecting a narrow win, but they’re far more nervous than Labor MPs about what’s at stake.

David Speers is the host of Insiders, which airs on ABC TV at 9am on Sunday or on iview.