The Kremlin is changing the rules of mobilization. Whom does Putin plan to call up for war

A parade was held in Moscow on the 9th of May

In Russia, a mechanism for legally recruiting prisoners is under development.

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The State Duma and Federation Council approved the draft law “On the peculiarities of criminal responsibility of persons involved in a special military operation.” This legislative act is a logical continuation of the regulations adopted at the end of 2022, which allow conscription for persons with unreleased or unpaid convictions. In fact, in Russia, they are not just trying to legalize the use of prisoners and ex-cons in war, but to create conditions under which “prisoners” will become the basis for the first wave of any new mobilization measures.

The Logic of the Process

In November 2022, the Russian authorities expanded the list of citizens who can be called up for military service through mobilization. In particular, a person with an outstanding conviction (with a few exceptions) could receive a summons to be mobilized (including those who have served their sentences). However, the mass recruitment of convicts remained outside the legal field. But using this category of persons allowed the Kremlin to postpone the announcement of mobilization until the autumn – from July to October. The lack of personnel was made up for with so-called “volunteers,” PMCs, and the mass use of convicts for criminal offenses (at the initial stage as part of the PMC, and later – in the Russian army). Initially, the structures associated with the Wagner PMC were the “monopolist” in developing this technique. Recruitment under conditions of virtually direct legislative prohibition of the use of prisoners of war was based on “informal” grounds connected to two broad groups: Putin’s entourage and organized crime (without which it was difficult to achieve such through the prison system).

A “purge” of low-level “thieves in law” (ranking members of organized crime syndicates) emerged – this war is “not ours.” As a result, the Kremlin managed to delay the mobilization announcement and, to some extent, lower the loss felt by Russian society in Ukraine. Imprisoned individuals are “less noticeable” to the average person. The bodies of the Wagner PMC soldiers are buried (mostly) far from their homes – in peculiar “special cemeteries” in relatively small settlements. In addition, one of the “positives” for the Kremlin is the ability to use such units in the most challenging areas of the front, regardless of the level of losses. Prisoners can only “gain freedom” after being wounded or after the end of their contract. Therefore, the options for “refusal” to follow orders are fewer than units recruited through mobilization. Finally, losses among prisoners “relieve” the FSVP system – places are being freed up in the prison system, and money is saved on maintaining the “contingent.”

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It’s no wonder that the military leadership decided to use the experience of Wagnerites and began recruiting in places of detention. However, the conflict between Prigozhin and the military leadership, which escalated, created new challenges:

– The need to withdraw some prisoners (as part of the PMC “Wagner”) to the rear.

– Emphasis on the high level of losses due to the storming of Bakhmut, particularly due to the (according to Prigozhin) attitude of the Russian Ministry of Defense.

– The recruitment policies jeopardized the informal agreements with the criminal world – a “purge” of a number of “thieves in law” appeared with a statement that this war is “not ours.” Such a situation may complicate recruitment into other units, particularly those created under the auspices of the Russian Ministry of Defense.

The above complications required the creation of conditions under which, on the one hand, the Russian Ministry of Defense received legal recruitment opportunities for prisoners, and, on the other hand, coercive mechanisms were created that would partially bypass the influence of organized crime bosses.

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Previously adopted laws (November 2022) allowed for the mobilization and conscription of Russian Federation citizens with criminal records (except for categories convicted of sexual offenses, treason, espionage, etc.) for military service. The new amendments change the procedure for exemption from criminal liability (and expunging criminal records). This includes receiving a state award, completing the term of service (contract), or demobilizing due to injury. These “exemption from liability” standards apply to those mobilized and those who have a contract with the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. Finally, the contingent of recruits is expanding – persons who have not yet been convicted are added to the roster – those for whom a “pre-trial investigation is being carried out.” However, there is a funny warning – the innovations do not apply to those imprisoned in the occupied part of Ukraine. After the bill’s final adoption (“third reading,” Putin’s signature), a mechanism for the legal recruitment of prisoners is being formed in Russia. There is both an element of coercion and an element of incentives within it.

Currently, prisoners with outstanding convictions can be summoned and mobilized for military service, but the issue of lifting convictions or exempting them from liability is very ad-hoc. Or as a result of informal agreements (as with Prigozhin). So there are no guarantees – there is only a probability of resolving the issue. Under the new rules, there is an option for guaranteed exemption from criminal liability and/or conviction after completion of service. And there is an option of concluding a contract for service with the Ministry of Defense with specified conditions. Thus, the Kremlin creates a system that allows convicts to choose: sit in prison for several years or go to war for a shorter term.

The Potential of Mobilization and What the Kremlin Gets

In 2022, Russian courts issued over 614,000 verdicts. Of this number, 160,000 received “conditional” verdicts, 78,000 were given fines, and about 162,000 cases were terminated (due to statutes of limitations, reconciliation, etc.). 182,000 people were imprisoned.

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But let’s turn to the statistics of the FSIN. It records the presence of slightly more than 433,000 prisoners (of which over 90% are men) as of the beginning of 2023. The numbers show a net decrease in the “contingent” in the FSIN system by more than 30,000 in 2022. At the same time, no mass amnesties were conducted in 2022. Considering that fewer sentences involving deprivation of liberty were handed down in 2020-21, one could have expected a reverse process – an increase in the number of prisoners. But the statistics show a decrease in the number of “inmates,” with the peak of their release from colonies falling in the second half of 2022. The figures allow us to estimate the “mobilization” potential of recruiting for PMC Wagner in 2022 at no less than 30,000 people. In reality (considering the number of new verdicts handed down), we can talk about 40-50 thousand mercenaries from various types of prisons and at least another 20 thousand people who had an outstanding conviction (but were not in prison).

However, even taking into account the work of Prigozhin, there remains significant mobilization potential in the FSVP system. It is constantly replenished with new guilty verdicts. Based on statistics (90% men), the Ministry of Defense of Russia can count on at least 380,000 people. At least another 400,000 have “conditional” verdicts. And finally, 200-300 thousand have outstanding convictions (served sentences, but the conviction has not been lifted). That is, the total potential is up to 1 million people.

But let’s try to model how many of them can be conscripted (or hired under contract).

–     100 to 120 thousand – convicted in prison. This figure is not accidental. The recruitment of the Wagner PMC without guarantees of release and lifting of the conviction resulted in 10-12% of those in prison. In case of “mobilization” or hiring with guarantees of release from liability, the figure may increase at least two times.

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–     50,000 to 70,000 – citizens of the Russian Federation who have “conditional” sentences. These are primarily residents of depressed regions and the unemployed who will gladly respond to a contract proposal. For reference, over 370,000 (out of 614 convicted in 2022) were unemployed. 15-20,000 are people with outstanding convictions. Those who have served their punishments are unlikely to be the most active recruiting pool for mercenaries. Still, the opportunity for wages (remembering unemployment) and clearing their “record” may allow up to 10% of such a contingent to be hired. Therefore, in total, we estimate the number to be between 165,000 and 210,000 people. And this is with minimal use of coercive tools (without declaring mobilization).

The number is still being determined and can be doubled without declaring mobilization.

Why? To understand the process, let us recall the persons “subject to pretrial investigation.” In other words, these are persons placed in detention until a verdict is reached. Based on statistics from the courts and the Federal Penitentiary Service, there may be at least 300,000 such persons per year. Investigators can make a simple choice: a very long investigation, the prospect of a trial, or the opportunity to “serve” and become free.

Thus, around 100,000 people from Russian pre-trial detention centers can be added to the abovementioned mobilization potential assessment. This is if the Russian government does not carry out the “fight against crime” campaign – that is, it does not artificially increase the number of citizens in detention centers.

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As a result, we come to a figure of about 300,000 people who can be quickly and, most importantly, relatively unnoticed by society, involved in the war against Ukraine. In addition, the death of most of them will be less noticeable than the death of “ordinary” citizens called up from civilian life to the ranks of the Russian army.

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Therefore, the Kremlin is creating a legal framework for conducting a new wave of mobilization, with no less than 300,000 people called up to the army. But this mobilization will be “invisible” to the average Russian, allowing Kremlin propaganda to develop further the ideas of “colossal losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and minimal losses of the Russian Armed Forces.” This confirms their claims that “Russia has not carried out mobilization – therefore, there are enough soldiers in the army.”

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