The Irish Times view on the Dutch election: a surprise boost for the far-right

The unexpected breakthrough of Geert Wilders’s far-right Freedom Party (PVV) in yesterday’s general election presents Dutch politicians with a dilemma. It is also a worrying message to other EU countries about the rise of support for the far-right and may – if Wilders manages to form a government – have significant long-term implications for the union.

The political system in the Netherlands allows for the representation of a remarkably high number of political parties – 17 in the outgoing parliament and 15 in the new one. Governments tend to be formed only after very lengthy negotiations and usually consist of three or four large parties, supported by some smaller ones. The party with most seats is normally first to be charged with forming a workable coalition. If they fail, other parties are called in.

Wilder’s party gained the support of 24 per cent of the electorate and won 37 seats. But to form a majority government he needs at least 76. Until now the other large parties whose support he would need have expressed an unwillingness to work with the PVV, or at least under his leadership. If that stance softens in the light of the results then a majority government could be formed with the Freedom Party, the conservative People’s Party (VVD) and the new Christian Democrat formation New Social Contract (NSC). But such an arrangement could probably only be reached if Wilders were prepared to ditch many of his more radical policies, like closing mosques or calling a referendum on leaving the EU.

There is an alternative possible “big tent” coalition of the centre-right and centre-left, encompassing the VVD, NSC, the social liberal party D66 and the Green Left-Labour bloc.

The dramatic swings in political support seen over the last year show a country with a large minority estranged from the mainstream parties and ready to alight, if only temporarily, almost anywhere on the political spectrum. Geert Wilders has said that he “can no longer be ignored”. That may be true, but it is not easy either to see how potential coalition partners can accommodate him.