The Guardian view on Italy’s election: a victory for illiberalism

The radical right’s clear victory in Italy’s election is a historic and disturbing moment in European politics. Formed 10 years ago, and with roots in a formerly fringe neo-fascist tradition, Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party will dominate the most rightwing administration to govern the country in the postwar period. The third-largest economy in the eurozone and a founding member of the European Union, Italy has now become a beacon and a model for nationalist, authoritarian forces across the continent.

Throughout the election campaign, Ms Meloni has been at pains to distance herself and her party from historical links to the Italian Social Movement (MSI), set up by supporters of Benito Mussolini after the war. According to Italy’s next prime minister, the far right has been on “a journey”, and should now be considered a national conservative party comparable to the British Conservative party. But a more relevant benchmark is her close ally Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz in Hungary, which in power has developed a form of soft autocracy which Mr Orbán describes as “illiberal democracy”.

As has happened in Hungary, Ms Meloni’s aggressive social conservatism is likely to make Italy a more hostile place for migrants, LGBT people and women seeking to exercise reproductive rights guaranteed by the constitution after the abortion referendum in 1978. Like Hungary’s prime minister, Ms Meloni has channelled “great replacement” theory, pledging to defend Italy’s Christian identity by cracking down on immigration and upping Italy’s low birthrate. Her party’s virulent opposition to gay adoption and surrogacy was signalled by campaign criticism of a Peppa Pig cartoon broadcast on a state channel, in which a plotline featured same-sex parents.

The prosecution of such culture wars is likely to provide red meat for Ms Meloni’s supporters, as she takes a more cautious approach in initial dealings with the EU. Facing a brutal economic winter, Italy cannot afford to do without €200bn worth of promised EU Covid recovery fund money. This comes with strings attached, as would any future assistance from the European Central Bank, should markets begin to bet against Italy’s ability to service its huge national debt. On Russia’s war in Ukraine, Ms Meloni has pledged ongoing support for Nato and the EU’s sanctions regime, but may encounter opposition from her more Putin-friendly coalition partners, Matteo Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi.

The bigger picture, for those committed to the internationalism and liberal democratic values forged by the EU since the second world war, is a depressing one. Among the first to congratulate Ms Meloni on her victory was Marine Le Pen, who suggested that “the whole of Europe is waking up, after Poland, Hungary, Sweden and now Italy”. For years, Ms Meloni has been assiduous in building up far-right alliances. Profiting from disastrous divisions on the centre-left and popular frustration with established parties, she is now able to place Italy – a major western democracy – at the head of forces favourable to rolling back European integration in the name of a reactionary nationalism and identity politics. Speaking before the election, Romano Prodi, the former centre-left prime minister and ex-president of the European Commission, warned of the dangers for the European idea if national laws were ever allowed to take precedence over EU law. That is largely where Ms Le Pen, Mr Orbán and Ms Meloni would like to end up. The triumph of Ms Meloni has immeasurably helped their cause.