Texans vs. Browns: Time, how to watch, TV, live stream, key matchups, prediction for Saturday NFL playoff game

Both the Cleveland Browns (11-6) and Houston Texans (10-7) climbed out of last-place division finishes in 2022 to reach double-digit wins and a postseason appearance in 2023. The Texans even completed the climb out of the basement to the penthouse, going from worst to first in the AFC South in the span of a year, which is why this matchup will be played in Houston, Texas on Saturday.

The Browns’ presence in this game may be even more impressive than a Texans team that won seven more games than they did in 2022, the biggest wins improvement of the 2023 season. Cleveland is the first team since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger to play in a playoff game without their Week 1 starting quarterback (Deshaun Watson), running back (Nick Chubb), left tackle (Jack Conklin) and right tackle (Jedrick Wills). A whopping 27% of the Browns salary cap is on injured reserve, the highest among playoff teams.

The most notable Browns players on injured reserve include QB Deshaun Watson, RB Nick Chubb, OT Jack Conklin, OT Jedrick Wills Jr., OT Dawand Jones and S Grant Delpit. They’re the first playoff team since 1970 NFL/AFL merger without its Week 1 starting QB, RB, LT and RT.

The Texans can certainly thank the Browns for helping them become their Super Wild Card Weekend opponent since Houston’s deal that sent former quarterback Deshaun Watson to Cleveland landed it the best rookie edge rusher: 2023 third overall pick Will Anderson Jr. His 59 quarterback pressures are the third most by a rookie in the last five seasons, trailing 2021 Micah Parsons (67) and 2019 Nick Bosa (80). 

Here’s a look at the Texans’ haul from the Watson trade (players and eventual results of picks acquired:

*The Browns traded three first-round picks — a third, and two fourth-round picks for Deshaun Watson.

This game is a rematch of a Week 16 showdown in the exact same venue down in Houston, one the Browns triumphed in 36-22. It’s worth nothing a couple things about that game: NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite and Houston Texans starting quarterback C.J. Stroud didn’t play because of a concussion, and Browns Pro Bowl wide receiver Amari Cooper went nuclear with 265 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns on 11 catches. Those 265 yards set the Browns’ single-game record and stood as the most in a game in the 2023 season. 

Stroud’s absence was obviously critical as the rookie is already the third player in the last 50 seasons to lead the NFL outright in passing yards per game (273.9) and touchdown-to-interception ratio (minimum 10 starts) along with Hall of Famer Joe Montana (1989) and future Hall of Famer Tom Brady (2007).

How will the postseason opener unfold? We’ve got you covered.   

How to watch

Date: Saturday, Jan. 13 | Time: 4:30 p.m. ETLocation: NRG Stadium (Houston, Texas)TV: NBC | Stream: fubo (try for free)  Follow: CBS Sports App Odds: Browns -2.5, O/U 44.5 (SportsLine consensus odds)

When the Browns have the ball

Kevin Stefanski’s answers against Houston’s defense are simple play-action passing and wide receiver Amari Cooper. Quarterback Joe Flacco led the NFL in passing yards (1,616) while ranking ninth in yards per pass attempt (7.9) in his five starts for the Browns after coming off the couch from Weeks 13-17. 

When zooming in on those numbers, Flacco racked up over half of that production on his NFL-best 857 passing yards and passing yards per attempt (12.6) off of play-action in that span. That’s a problem area for the Texans who allowed the most passing yards (1,495) and the second-most passing yards per attempt (10.2) on play-action. 

Despite being 38 years old, Flacco has also thrived on designed rollout passes this season, completing 13 of his 17 attempts for 322 passing yards and four touchdowns in 2023. On the flip side, Houston has a problem there, too. They allowed the most passing yards per attempt (11.2) on designed rollouts this season. Flacco shredded them on rollouts back in Week 16, completing all three of his passes on them for 92 yards and touchdown.

Cooper (485 receiving yards from Weeks 13-17, third most in the NFL) and tight end David Njoku’s (led all tight ends with 390 receiving yards and 230 yards after catch from Weeks 13-17) connections with Flacco have taken the Browns offense to another level. 

Sure, Flacco has all this great momentum entering the postseason, but he does have one glaring issue: interceptions. He led the NFL with eight interceptions in his five starts this season from Weeks 13-17. Houston has two cornerbacks in corner Derek Stingley Jr. (five interceptions, tied for the fourth most in the NFL) and Steven Nelson (four interceptions, tied for the eighth most in the NFL) who are likely salivating over a second crack at playing against him this season. 

When the Texans have the ball

This side of the ball features an unstoppable force (C.J. Stroud) and an unmovable object (the Browns defense). Stroud led the NFL in passing yards per game (273.9), but Cleveland allowed the fewest passing yards per game this season (164.7). 

The rookie also led the NFL in expected points per dropback against zone coverage this season, but he ranked 23rd in the league against man coverage. The Browns play man coverage at the highest rate in the league (41%) and allow the lowest completion percentage in man coverage (45%). Losing fellow rookie Tank Dell to a season-ending leg injury didn’t help matters for Stroud as now only Nico Collins is Houston’s lone, reliable man-coverage beater. 

However, Stroud has thrown for 311.7 passing yards per game, 18 touchdowns and two interceptions this season against teams with winning records. That’s the third-best touchdown-to-interception ratio against winning teams since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger among those with a minimum of 200 pass attempts. 

Prediction

The ultimate question this matchup hinges on is simple: Can Stroud overcome the Browns’ No. 1 total defense (270.2 total yards per game)? The horse that makes everything go for Cleveland on the defensive side of the ball, All-Pro defensive Myles Garrett, had just one sack in his final six games played during the regular season from Weeks 12-17.

If the Garrett from that stretch shows up on Saturday, Houston wins. Cleveland’s path to victory is Garrett getting Stroud off his spot and forcing him to make faster decisions than he would like. However, in a matchup of the quarterback who leads the NFL in touchdown-to-interception ratio (Stroud) against the quarterback who leads the NFL in interceptions from Weeks 13-17 (Flacco), take the more efficient passer. Texans hang on late for their first playoff win since the 2019 season. Pick: Texans 24, Browns 20

If you want a more analytical approach to your NFL picks, then I highly suggest that you check out the SportsLine Projection Model, which has been on fire this year. Check it out if you want to know which side to bet for every game in Super Wild Card Weekend.