Ten Hag’s fate may depend on ability to re-energise struggling Rashford

“I don’t want to pin myself to a number,” said Erik ten Hag. It was the day before Christmas last year and the Manchester United manager had just been asked how many goals Marcus Rashford was targeting as the domestic season resumed. “I think he is capable of scoring 20 goals in the Premier League. He got three in the World Cup so we know the potential to score those numbers in the Premier League.”

Seventy-two hours later against Nottingham Forest at Old Trafford, it took Rashford 19 minutes to register his 10th of the campaign when he slammed home from a corner routine with a sweet first-time finish – the fifth successive home game in which he had found the net. Although he didn’t quite fulfil his manager’s prophecy, ending up with 17 Premier League goals, a career-best 30 in all competitions as United qualified for the Champions League and reached two domestic cup finals seemed to confirm that the boy from Wythenshawe had emerged as a truly world-class star.

“He’s been brilliant, and on current form he’s probably the best player in the world,” enthused Phil Jones, his United teammate, before the Carabao Cup final against Newcastle in February, when Rashford inevitably scored to help end the club’s six-year trophy drought.

Like Ten Hag – who suddenly seems like a manager without a coherent plan, having spent his first season in charge making all the right decisions – Rashford has discovered that a lot can change in 12 months. Not for the first time in his career at United, the world appears to be on his shoulders as the team splutter from one disaster to the next.

Rashford was criticised after being accused of failing to acknowledge the away supporters after the dismal 2-0 defeat at West Ham on Saturday, although Ten Hag said: “I’m not sure if that happened.” But the team’s recent fortunes seem to be inextricably linked to the 26-year-old’s form in front of goal after they failed to find the net in a fourth successive fixture for the first time since November 1992.

United’s struggles that autumn 31 years ago – including a 1-0 home defeat by a Wimbledon team featuring Vinnie Jones – convinced Sir Alex Ferguson that he needed to sign Eric Cantona from Leeds and the season ended with United crowned champions for the first time in 26 years. Yet with Ten Hag having spent almost £400m on signings, including several on his recommendation, there can be no such quick fix this time.

Erik ten Hag cuts a lonely figure on the sidelines during his side’s 2-0 defeat at West Ham. Photograph: Shaun Brooks/Action Plus/Shutterstock

Instead, the Dutchman must find a way to get the best out of Rashford, who has not started in the Premier League since the defeat by Newcastle at the beginning of December. He signed a new long-term contract in the summer worth a reported £315,000 a week but has managed only two goals for his club. Ten Hag admitted that his talisman was “not happy” but placed the onus on Rashford, who missed the crucial games against Bayern Munich and Liverpool due to illness, to “take the responsibility”. The manager said: “I’m sure he will do that and he will line up himself.”

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Their relationship has come under increased scrutiny this season as results have declined, with Ten Hag describing Rashford’s decision to hold his birthday party hours after the 3-0 defeat by Manchester City as “unacceptable”. Rashford has previously spoken of his admiration for the former Ajax manager’s “high standards” that led to him being dropped for the game against Wolves on New Year’s Eve last year after being late for a team meeting. “I wasn’t even that late – he wasn’t being harsh, late is late – but it was probably about 45 seconds, a minute late,” he later said. “I already knew what was going to happen because of the rules he implemented in pre-season. Rules are rules and we’ve got a game to win.”

That decision paid dividends for both parties as Rashford came off the bench to score the winner at Molineux, but this season there has been no such response and he has continued to look bereft of confidence. His 9.5% shot conversion rate is less than half that of last season but the bigger concern is the number of shots he has attempted, with 38 from 17 Premier League appearances compared with 108 from 35 last season.

Rashford’s decline echoes his disappointing 2021-22 campaign under Ole Gunnar Solskjær when he managed only four league goals after missing the start of the season with a shoulder injury. He later admitted that “too often, I wasn’t in the right headspace for games” and praised Ten Hag for motivating him by providing a “different energy around the club and the training ground”. Time will tell if that ever returns.