Talking Horses: handicapper explains ‘impossible task’ set for Tiger Roll
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The handicapper has defended his assessment of Tiger Roll which has left the great Irish horse facing what connections regard as an impossible task when he returns to Cheltenham on Friday. Having trailed Easysland by 17 lengths at the Festival in March when the pair were carrying the same weight, he must shoulder 4lb more than the French raider when they meet again on the cross-country course.
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“Hopefully he runs well and comes back safe but he would look to have an impossible task,” said Eddie O’Leary of Gigginstown Stud, which owns Tiger Roll. O’Leary expressed bafflement that his horse should be rated higher than Easysland after what happened in March. He also sees the French horse as a potent threat in the Grand National in April, which Tiger Roll will be trying to win for the third time.
Martin Greenwood, the handicapper with responsibility for staying chasers, responded: “Tiger Roll was trounced in March but he had an interrupted preparation and connections said the ground was too soft. We take into account that he simply didn’t run to anywhere near his best. And then obviously everything stopped after that and we learned nothing more.”
Tiger Roll might have been expected to come out on top at the Festival, as his rating of 171 was 19lb higher than Easysland’s rating. But the young French horse, having only his second run in Britain, had evidently been underestimated. Greenwood has since raised him 15lb.
“You could have made that anything, he won that well. But I know we didn’t see the proper Tiger Roll that day.” In the circumstances, he was not prepared to rate Easysland ahead of Tiger Roll on the back of a single run. Friday’s contest will provide more evidence and may very well determine the identity of the topweight at Aintree in April.
While Tiger Roll has been remarkably hard to beat at the major spring festivals, the winter months have not shown him to advantage and he hasn’t won in the month of November since his days as a juvenile hurdler seven years ago, when Nigel Hawke trained him. Gordon Elliott’s plan is surely to bring him along steadily with the Festival and the Grand National in mind and it would therefore be surprising to see him anywhere close to his best on Friday.
Even a peak-form Tiger Roll would be hard pressed to give 4lb to a talent like Easysland (3.00), whose unbeaten run last season left his limitations unexposed. Odds of 4-6 could not be described as generous, bearing in mind the risk that he might need this first run since March, but his opposition here can be summed up as a pair of 10-year-olds being prepared for big days later in the term plus six others who are 9lb or more out of the weights.
If there’s a danger, it could be his 12-1 stablemate Vino Royale, who is still all potential at this stage.
1.50 Cheltenham When he won a Newbury handicap on his first British start last autumn, Fanion D’Estruval looked a horse with a big future. Though he was a beaten favourite in a Grade Two on his only start since, that form looks strong and he may still be ahead of his rating.
2.25 Cheltenham A slightly controversial winner here over hurdles on New Year’s Day, Protektorat seems a much improved performer for the switch to fences. He whizzed up at Carlisle last month and, judging by the form of his stablemates, will be sharper again here.
3.35 Cheltenham From the Kim Bailey stable that won the Badger Beers on Saturday, Does He Know impressed with an emphatic success here three weeks ago and the 3lb penalty is not intimidating. Grand Mogul will be a threat if, as connections expect, he improves for the better ground than he had when winning at Chepstow.
A couple at double-figure odds appeal in the handicaps at either end of the card. The Bees Knees is the right favourite for the closing handicap but the market is missing the claims of Pam Sly’s Takeit Easy (4.05) at 14-1. For his handicap debut win at Huntingdon, he pulled clear of a big field with one other who has since won from a higher mark. This stiffer test is all to the good for him.
Don’t Ask (1.15) was not the only horse in his yard to regress last term but he is nicely weighted if a change of stables can spark a revival. He can certainly operate on decent ground, so 20-1 is fair.