Sunday Crunch: Brexit’s back (again) — Rwanda row — Strike!

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By CRISTINA GALLARDO

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Good Sunday afternoon. I’m Cristina Gallardo, carrying the baton while Annabelle Dickson takes a well-deserved break.

3 ROWS TO KNOW

1. NORTHERN IRELAND ROW: Get ready for another big Brexit week as the U.K. unveils its plan to ignore parts of the Northern Ireland protocol — and ministers insist the whole idea is “lawful and correct.”

Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis had the Sunday media round for the government and said the bill — due tomorrow — would “restore all aspects of the Good Friday / Belfast Agreement.” Critics don’t exactly see it that way, and there are reports of a Cabinet bust-up over the unilateral proposal.

Government defense: Seasoned Brexit-watchers will note that Lewis didn’t really break any news about the content or legal basis of the bill. But he told Sky’s Sophy Ridge it will give “primacy” to the peace-making agreement and stressed the government reckons it “is lawful and it is correct.”

But but but: He batted away questions about whether James Eadie, first Treasury counsel and the top government law adviser who represents the administration in the courts, has been side-lined in the process.

**A message from Amazon: This week we are in Westminster to talk about sustainability in retail, logistics and technology. Amazon is co-founder of The Climate Pledge, a group of more than 300 organisations that are committed to being net-zero carbon by 2040, 10 years ahead of the Paris Agreement. Find out more here.**

Lewis slams EU: The U.K.’s been taking potshots at the EU for months, accusing it of refusing to heed concerns about the political and trading impact of the protocol in Northern Ireland. Lewis told the BBC’s Sunday Morning program Brussels is not offering proper flexibility — only “some flexibility based on a fully-implemented protocol.”

And he added: “That would be, actually, worse than the situation we’ve got today. So, I do think they’ve been disingenuous in suggesting they’re being flexible when in fact they’ve not shown the flexibility that’s required to resolve these issues for the people of Northern Ireland.”

Cabinet infighting: Now for the U.K. political context. As Boris Johnson fights to rebuild his battered authority, Housing Secretary Michael Gove and Chancellor Rishi Sunak reportedly joined forces last week to fight plans by Foreign Secretary Liz Truss to force through a tougher version, according to the Sunday Times.

Trolley latest: The PM is said to sided with Gove and Sunak at a Wednesday meeting — only to cave the next day to tweaks proposed by the European Research Group (ERG) of hardline Tory Brexiteers. A source present at the meeting said to expect “a very hardline position” on the role of the Court of Justice of the EU in governing the protocol.

Hunting in the shadows: Tory leadership hopefuls are meanwhile waking up to the weight the ERG could have in a potential leadership contest. According to the Sunday Telegraph, Jeremy Hunt has been wooing Brexiteer MPs with a pledge that he would remove the Irish Sea trade controls introduced by the protocol. Might be worth running that one past Brussels and Dublin. Some Conservatives hope Hunt could obtain more concessions from the EU than Johnson, given the level of mistrust of the PM shared by many in the bloc.

No DUP reassurance: Lewis admitted to Ridge that the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland has not given the government a reassurance that it will re-join the power-sharing regional executive once the bill is published. But he expressed hope they’ll do so once they see London “solving” issues with the protocol.

What Sinn Féin says: Sinn Féin President Mary Lou McDonald accused the Tories of using the situation in the region to advance their own leadership ambitions, and stressed that a majority of members of the Northern Ireland Assembly support the protocol.

She said Lewis “should know that where there are issues to be resolved with the protocol … there are mechanisms through which that can happen, there is a willingness to engage by the European Commission.” But, she said, the British government had “refused to engage, has not been constructive” and is “now proposing to introduce legislation that will undoubtedly breach international law.”

Labour’s take: The government “plans to break international law” with its bill and “seems to be developing a record for lawbreaking,” Labour’s Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves told Ridge. She’s calling for a bespoke New Zealand-style veterinary agreement with the EU to speed up the movement of good, but said this requires “statecraft” from Johnson. During a visit to Belfast earlier this week, Labour Leader Keir Starmer said that his party would scrap the coming bill if gets into office.

2. RWANDA FLIGHTS ROW: As if that wasn’t enough to be getting on with, expect plenty more rowing this week over the government’s hardline asylum policy — and it’s not just the blowback from Prince Charles.

What you need to know: Flights carrying asylum seekers to Rwanda are due to start as soon as Tuesday after the High Court rejected a temporary ban requested by campaign groups and lawyers representing some asylum seekers, pending a full hearing next month. The Home Office has served notifications of removal to up to 130 people, and the court on Friday heard that 31 people were due on the first flight.

Not quite done yet: The plan has created deep discomfort among some officials, despite civil servants being bound not to frustrate the implementation of government policy. Mark Serwotka, the secretary general of the PCS union — which represents frontline civil servants including more than eight in 10 Border Force staff — told Ridge the union will appeal the High Court’s decision tomorrow and stop the first deportation flight. Serwotka, who is a Labour member, said Home Office officials implementing the policy Tuesday would be in “an appalling situation” if in July the court deems the policy illegal.

Charlie isn’t my darling: Meanwhile unnamed Cabinet ministers are popping off at the prince of Wales following reports this weekend that he’s sharply critical of the whole Rwanda policy.

How it started: The Times Matt Dathan and Valentine Low had a heck of a scoop Saturday reporting that Prince Charles had privately described the plan as “appalling.” It comes as he is due to represent the Queen at the Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting in Rwanda’s capital later this month.

And then: Clarence House put out a rare statement saying that while it “would not comment on supposed anonymous private conversations with the Prince of Wales,” it wished to “restate that he remains politically neutral” and that “matters of policy are decisions for government.”

How it’s going: Tory MPs and royal experts in the Sunday Express urge Charles to remain politically neutral. If members of the royal family “pick sides” in a political debate “they will start to put people against them,” Conservative MP Stuart Anderson said, adding Charles’s opinions “would be best kept to himself.”

Cabinet clapback: The Sunday Times has some spicy pushback from members of the government too, including one senior Cabinet minister said who says Charles “is an adornment to our public life, but that will cease to be charming if he attempts to behave the same way when he is king. That will present serious constitutional issues.” Others compare him unfavorably to Queen Elizabeth.

Priti firm: The Home Office counters that everything in the policy is compliant with the U.K.’s international obligations. Lewis refused to comment on Charles row, but told Sky News he feels personally comfortable with the plan. Home Secretary Priti Patel said Friday “people will continue to try and prevent” relocation of asylum seekers arriving in England without having applied to any of the government asylum routes, but that the government “will not be deterred.”

3. ROW WITH STRIKING WORKERS: Ministers are heading for a collision with rail staff after Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said the government is preparing to repeal a ban on agency staff filling in for striking workers. It comes as more than 40,000 workers prepare to take industrial action this month — with more strikes planned for the summer.

No immediate fix: The change won’t be ready in time for the June industrial action, Shapps told the Sunday Telegraph, but could be brought in quickly afterward.

There’s more: In a piece for the Sun on Sunday, Shapps warned workers planning to strike that they won’t be able to work on subsequent days to top up the pay that they would lose as a result.  

No visas: Shapps is also resisting demands for emergency visas to EU workers to tackle chaos at the airports, despite calls from the aviation industry which wanted 6-months visas to prevent further flight cancelations.

What Labour says: Reeves accused the government of “fanning the flames and increasing tensions.”

Some relief: More than 30,000 passengers who had flights canceled or rearranged in the past two weeks over staff shortages at airlines and baggage handlers are battling to get refunds, writes the Mirror.

ALSO WORTH KNOWING

AWKWARD BALMORAL VISIT: Johnson’s visit to the queen’s private estate of Balmoral in the Scottish Highlands at the end of the 2019 summer break was a profoundly awkward experience for all concerned, the Mail on Sunday writes. The prime minister’s demeanor during the meeting with Prince Charles led to “eyebrows being raised,” according to a source who is quoted as describing Johnson as “distracted,” “clearly not focused” and “disrespectful.”

Not besties: Their interactions have improved over time, but the pair cannot be called “the best of friends” and “have totally different world views,” the same source said.

TORY PLOTTING CONTINUES: Rebel tories are targeting dozens of Conservative MPs who voted in favor of Johnson in the vote of no confidence but might flip against him, according to a senior source quoted by the Sun on Sunday. The paper writes that up to 20 MPs on the government payroll, including some ministers, would have voted against the PM in the secret ballot.

Keep an eye on: Foreign Office Minister Vicky Ford, Treasury Minister John Glen and Environment Minister Jo Churchill, who are seen as being on resignation-watch, according to the paper.

FRENCH PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION: France is going to the polls again, this time for a parliamentary election taking place in two rounds — the first today and the second on June 19. POLITICO’s aggregate polling has first-round voting intentions neck-and-neck between Ensemble, the ruling coalition, and NUPES, the left-wing alliance led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

France’s legislative election is held every five years — two months after its presidential vote. The legislatives determine the MPs, or députés, who sit in the National Assembly, France’s lower chamber of parliament.

WATCH OUT FOR THIS WEEK

WTO MINISTERIAL CONFERENCE: The World Trade Organization is holding its 12th four-day ministerial conference for its 164 member countries in Geneva today. Here’s a preview from my trade colleagues as to what to expect.

Supply crunch: Countries should think twice before they split up economies and supply chains into political blocs, the WTO’s Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala told POLITICO in an interview, just days before the meeting.

Vaccines IP waiver? Okonjo-Iweala expressed cautious optimism that trade ministers would reach an agreement to allow individual countries to waive intellectual property protections for COVID-19 vaccines without facing a legal challenge at the WTO.

FOOD STRATEGY: The government is due to publish its food strategy Monday — and there’s a heated row already over what’s in it.

In the farming corner: Minette Batters, the president of the National Farmers Union, told the Observer she warned Johnson Friday that farmers are furious with post-Brexit policies they said left them at a disadvantage against foreign producers. This includes farmers in Tiverton and Honiton, where a byelection is scheduled for June 23, she said.

Leaked paper: A leaked draft of the strategy, first published in full by the Guardian on Friday, suggests the government wants 50 percent of public sector food spend to go on food produced locally or certified to higher environmental standards.

But but but: In the wake of that no confidence punch-up last week and amid the soaring cost of living, Johnson is set to water down a fund to pay farmers for re-wilding areas of land, from £800 million to £50 million. The Sunday Times had the story, and green groups are not happy.

UKRAINE WAR LATEST: The European Commission will, by the end of next week, finalize its assessment on whether Ukraine should be given EU candidate status … German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi are set for a trip to Kyiv later this month … Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy “didn’t want to hear” warnings about the Russian invasion early this year, U.S. President Joe Biden said.

SUNDAY COFFEE READING AND LISTENING

CHINA FOCUS: The FT has a couple of interesting pieces on China, including a long article on how President Xi Jinping is reshaping the country’s capital markets, and a report on Beijing’s admission it is developing new weapons. Here’s more from my ace POLITICO colleague Stuart Lau.

SUNDAY MEDIA ROUND

Ayesha Hazarika on Times Radio 4 p.m. to 7 p.m: Professor of EU law Catherine Barnard; Conservative MP Christopher Chope; pollster John Curtice; Ukrainian MP Kira Rudik; Conservative MP Matt Warman; SNP MP Richard Thomson; and political editor of HuffPost UK Kevin Schofield.

The Andrew Neil Show on Channel 4, 6 p.m.: Former Brexit Secretary David Davis; the Financial Times’ Stephen Bush and the Telegraph’s Madeline Grant.

Westminster Hour, BBC Radio 4, 10 p.m.:  Tory MP Tim Loughton; Shadow Leader of the Commons Thangam Debbonaire; Liverpool University professor Jon Tonge; and the Spectator’s Katy Balls.

WEEK AHEAD

MONDAY

— STATE OF THE ECONOMY: The Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes the latest GDP figures, 7 a.m.

— BREXIT: Government set to introduce bill to disapply parts of the Northern Ireland protocol.

— FOOD STRATEGY: Government lifts the lid on long-awaited plan for future of U.K. food.

— COMMONS: Sits from 2.30 p.m. with defense questions and the remaining stages of the Higher Education (Freedom of Speech) bill.

— ARMS EXPORTS: Ministers James Cleverly and Ranil Jayawardena give evidence on the U.K. arms exports, from 2 p.m.

— REGIONAL INEQUALITY: Housing Secretary Michael Gove grilled by a parliamentary committee on the government’s leveling up plans at 4 p.m.

— TECHNOLOGY: London Tech Week takes place until Friday, with representatives from various governments and tech firm leaders expected to speak.

TUESDAY

— ANNIVERSARIES: 40th anniversary of the end of the Falklands War, and fifth anniversary of the Grenfell Tower fire.

— JOBS: The ONS publishes the latest unemployment figures, at 7 a.m.

— COMMONS: Sits from 11.30 a.m. with health and social care questions.

— ASYLUM SEEKERS: First flight taking asylum seekers to Rwanda due to depart from Britain.

— UNIONS: Unison annual conference takes place in Brighton, runs until Friday.

— MP BEHAVIOR: Pre-trial hearing for Scottish National Party MP Margaret Ferrier, who is accused of traveling between Glasgow and London by train with COVID-19 symptoms. She denies the charge.

— MINISTERIAL CODE: The PM’s independent adviser on ministerial interests Lord Geidt is quizzed by the public administration committee at 10 a.m. on those controversial updates to the ministerial code.

WEDNESDAY

— COVID-19: The ONS publishes the latest COVID-19 antibody estimates for the U.K.; results from the COVID-19 schools infection survey for March 2022; and latest findings on the behavior of people testing positive, at 9.30 a.m.

— COMMONS: Sits from 11.30 a.m. with COP26 questions, followed by PMQs.

— NORTHERN IRELAND TROUBLES: Northern Ireland affairs committee takes views of veterans and former police officers on the Northern Ireland troubles bill, at 9.30 a.m.

— FUTURE OF UK SCIENCE: Science Minister George Freeman quizzed by the Commons science committee on delays to the U.K.’s association to the EU’s R&D program Horizon Europe, at 11 a.m.

— BREXIT: Lindsay Croisdale-Appleby, the U.K.’s ambassador to the EU, gives evidence on what has changed at the U.K.’s Mission in Brussels, at 2.30 p.m.

THURSDAY

— COMMONS: Sits from 11.30 a.m. with international trade questions.

Thanks: To Matt Honeycombe-Foster for finessing Sunday Crunch.

**A message from Amazon: Amazon has launched the Right Now Climate Fund, committing €20 million to restore and protect forests, wetlands, and peatlands in Europe. Find out more here.**

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