Sunday Crunch: A world holding its breath

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Good Sunday afternoon. This is Annabelle Dickson finally back in the saddle after succumbing to conference COVID.

MUST-LISTEN TONIGHT: It’s Sunday, which means the ace POLITICO/Sky News podcast — Politics at Jack and Sam’s — is back. For those not already addicted, this is your essential Sunday night briefing on the week ahead in Westminster with POLITICO’s U.K. Editor Jack Blanchard and Sky News’ Sam Coates, talking you through what’s coming up in U.K. politics each week. With conference season over the team are round at Jack’s house tonight and as always, the episode will be landing in podcast feeds at around 6:30 p.m. You can sign up for podcast email alerts here, or subscribe via Spotify here or via Apple Podcasts here.

THINGS TO KNOW

THE WAITING GAME: The world is holding its breath and waiting to see what happens next in the Middle East as Israel continues to prepare for a ground assault on the Gaza Strip. Back in the U.K., politicians faced tough questions this morning about exactly how far British backing for Israel will extend, and what is being done to support those trapped in Gaza.

Convos with Israel: Foreign Secretary James Cleverly used the Sunday morning media round to insist he had been warning Israel that civilian casualties must be minimized in “every conversation” he was having with counterparts.

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Escalation danger: “It is in Israel’s interest to avoid civilian casualties, and Palestinian casualties, because Hamas clearly wants to turn this into a wider Arab-Israeli war, or indeed a war between the Muslim world and the wider world,” Cleverly told Sky News. “Restraint” and “discipline” are the hallmarks of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) that Cleverly said he wanted to see. 

Red lines? Cleverly insisted no country would give carte blanche to another nation, when asked about the limits to what the U.K. would support in Gaza, but said he had “received regular commitments from the Israeli leadership — both military and civilian” — that they were “very conscious of their responsibilities.” 

Imminent: On the timing and shape of a potential Israeli assault, Cleverly claimed no inside knowledge, but suggested it could be imminent given the “actions that the IDF are taking with regard to encouraging civilians to leave the area.” 

Getting out: There was no good news from Cleverly on the question of whether the Rafah crossing out of Gaza into Egypt might open anytime soon. Talks to open the crossing were “incredibly difficult,” Cleverly told Sky, while promising to “keep working on it” because it was “important for the British nationals in Gaza.” The Foreign Office has told British and dual nationals to be on alert in case the crossing is opened, the BBC reports.

Wait for escape: Asked by the BBC’s Victoria Derbyshire whether he had asked Israel to wait for civilians to move out of Gaza before sending in its troops, Cleverly said he had not made that specific request “ because Hamas are trying to prevent people leaving northern Gaza.”

Evacuation continues: Gazans will be able to continue to move south, the Israeli military said this morning. Reuters has more.

British hostage numbers: Cleverly was reluctant to put a number on the British hostages being held by Hamas, insisting he was not comfortable implying anyone had certainty, but he told Sky News that reports of a figure of 10 were “not an unreasonable estimate.” 

Chatting to China: On Times Radio, Cleverly said he “may well” speak with China about the Israel-Hamas war, although he would first compare notes with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. “Engagement with China is important. I’ve always made the case that engagement with China is important,” Cleverly told Kate McCann and Adam Boulton. 

No proof: Cleverly would not be drawn on accusations by Human Rights Watch last week that Israel has used white phosphorus in its military operations, telling Sky there had been accusations directed at Israel which had already been proven “to be completely baseless.” 

“There is a huge amount of disinformation floating around. It is better to pause and wait before making a judgment call on what may prove to be completely unfounded allegations,” Cleverly said. 

Not afraid: Asked about his own experience of running for cover when visiting Israel last week, Cleverly said he had not been afraid. “The swiftness and professionalism of the people that I was with was incredibly reassuring,” he said. 

Cross-party consensus: On Sky, Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy echoed Cleverly’s warnings on staying within international law, and would not be drawn on whether he supported Israel’s order for Palestinians to move out. Lammy told the BBC it was “not a yes or no” answer, pointing out that he was hoping to be the U.K.’s chief diplomat one day. Quizzed on allegations of war crimes, Lammy insisted it was a matter for the U.N. and the ICC. 

In the Green Room: An image tells a thousand words, and Lammy and Cleverly were caught on camera sharing a greeting during their media rounds this morning. As Sky’s Sam Coates, who shared a clip, points out: It is the “embrace that speaks to the cross-party political consensus” on this particular issue. 

Powerless patients: Israeli government adviser Mark Regev was also on the airwaves this morning defending Israel’s actions. Questioned about warnings from the World Health Organization this weekend that forcing hospital patients to move would be tantamount to a “death sentence,” he told the BBC that “when you’re fighting a war innocent people will be killed,” but insisted Israel would try and keep “casualties to a minimum.”

Not impressed: The BBC also spoke to the head of the Palestinian Mission to the UK Husam Zomlot who warned the British government to “stick to its own historic, legal and political responsibilities” and to “stop giving a green light for those fanatics in the Israeli Government.”

Protesters turn out: Thousands of pro-Palestinian demonstrators took to the streets of London and elsewhere in the U.K. on Saturday. The Observer has details of the protests, including the 15 arrests in London. Asked about  reports that “strong advice” was issued to Labour representatives who were urged by the party hierarchy to “exercise caution” and asked not to take Labour Party banners to demonstrations, David Lammy said it was important Labour MPs should be very careful to “do nothing to drive division in our communities.”

Attacks uncovered: The Sun on Sunday reports on an undercover investigation which they claim could have seen activists carry out “sledgehammer attacks” on the offices and factories of three companies they claim have links to Israel.

Internal warning: The Mail on Sunday reports an order that government departments should fly the Israeli flag in solidarity with the victims of last weekend’s terrorist attacks was met with resistance from some civil servants. 

Back channels: The Sunday Times‘ Tim Shipman says retired diplomats and spooks have been called up to try and get their old contacts to work as intermediaries in an attempt to secure the release of British citizens among the hostages held by Hamas.

Coming attractions: PM Rishi Sunak will host the King of Jordan in Downing Street later this afternoon, and we can likely expect some sort of statement in the crisis when parliament returns tomorrow giving MPs their first chance to give their thoughts in the chamber.

ABERDEEN GATHERING: SNP leader and Scottish First Minister Humza Yousaf’s BBC interview this morning was unsurprisingly dominated by events in the Middle East. His in-laws are trapped in Gaza and Yousaf described how they had been told to evacuate overnight believing a nearby house was about to get hit. It turned out to be a false alarm, but Yousaf described how at one point his mother-in-law was even saying her goodbyes.

Ceasefire call: Yousaf reiterated his call for a ceasefire, and the need for a humanitarian corridor to allow supplies in, and for innocent people to leave the area.

Emergency motion: At their annual conference — which kicked off today — the SNP passed an emergency motion along these lines, while Nadia El-Nakla, Yousaf’s wife, made an emotional address to activists.

Big moment: Amid what is clearly a terrible time for his family, Yousaf also needs to rally his party troops this week. Yousaf insisted in his BBC interview that true change would come only with independence — not “going from Westminster blue to Westminster red.” A slogan we are likely to hear a lot of in the run-up to the next general election.

Raising the curtain: Westminster leader Stephen Flynn opened the conference this morning with a speech to the gathered faithful, my colleague Andrew McDonald, who is covering the conference, writes in to report. In amongst independence calls to arms and an emphasis on the cost of living crisis, he also admitted the result in Rutherglen was “humbling” and indicated the party has to listen to voters.

Defining success: But today’s real action is at 2.20 p.m., when Yousaf will introduce a debate and vote on independence strategy. The days of Nicola Sturgeon’s roundly disliked de-facto referendum gambit are largely over — instead, the SNP intends to argue that success for the party in next year’s general election is a mandate for a new referendum. In his round of interviews this morning, he indicated that “success” will now be defined as winning a majority of seats in the election. But opinion differs across the party, meaning it could get spicy.

Further reading: There are a few curtain-raisers for the SNP conference around that are worth a read. “Nothing demonstrated SNP fatigue more than the party’s need to hire door-to-door leafleters, some reportedly on a zero-hours basis, to delivery its literature,” Alex Massie and John Boothman write in the Sunday Times this morning.

Speaking out: The Sunday Express team spoke to Lisa Cameron, who defected from the SNP to the Tories last week on why she would no longer vote for Scottish independence.

Also conferencing: Jeffrey Donaldson’s speech to the Democratic Unionist Party conference this weekend contained no promise of a speedy return to Stormont. But he told POLITICO’s Shawn Pogatchnik the areas of disagreement are narrowing between his party and London over making Northern Ireland’s post-Brexit trade rules work — and a revival of power-sharing with Sinn Féin has become a matter of when, not if. There is more from Shawn coming tomorrow.

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QUICK-FIRE CATCH-UP

BY-ELECTION BONANZA: It’s another big by-election week for Rishi Sunak. This time voters go to the polls in Mid-Bedfordshire and Tamworth on Thursday. The Sunday Express has the lowdown on allegations of “dirty tricks” in Mid-Beds. The Observer’s Michael Savage has also looked at the torrid battle taking place between Labour and the Lib Dems there, and reports that senior Labour figures fear the contest could risk moves to informally cooperate to oust the Tories next year. The Sunday Telegraph says Labour is paying for adverts urging traditional Liberal Democrat supporters to “vote tactically” to oust the Conservatives in Mid-Bedfordshire. In their Saturday read, the Sun’s Harry Cole and Jack Elsom reckon Tory hopes of holding on to Mid-Bedfordshire next Thursday have evaporated.

Local candidate row: The Mail on Sunday also reports on a good old row between the Tories and Labour in Tamworth over where the Labour candidate lives. 

MEET MARINA: The Sunday Times has profiled Marina Wheeler — the barrister former wife of Boris Johnson who will advise Labour on tackling sexual harassment in the workplace. She tells the paper she thinks the recent spate of claims of harassment in workplaces is only the “tip of an iceberg.” Caroline Wheeler (no relation!) has also spoken to plenty more of those who know Wheeler about the woman taking on the key new Labour role.

WHAT’S THE CATCH? Brexiteers are skeptical of Saturday’s trade deal overtures from Christian Lindner. The German finance minister told the BBC: “If you want to intensify your trade relationship with the EU — call us!” David Jones, deputy chairman of the European Research Group of Tory MPs, tells the Mail on Sunday the German minister “shouldn’t hold his breath.”

MAKING IT HARDER: Home Secretary Suella Braverman is pushing for the salary threshold for immigrants seeking visas to rise in an attempt to bring down net migration numbers before the next election, the Sunday Times reports.

NOT AGAIN: Depressing news for social care campaigners. The Observer hears Labour will avoid laying out a detailed plan for reform of social care amid fears any proposals would be torpedoed by the Tories in the heat of a campaign. We will be given a “general commitment to make changes when in office,” according to the paper. Sunday Crunch is old enough to remember quite a few leaders promising those. 

ELECTION COFFERS: Oliver Shah has a fascinating long-read in the Sunday Times today looking at the election fundraising efforts of the main political parties.

ANOTHER TRUSS BUDGET: Mark your calendars. The growth commission set up by ex-PM Liz Truss, who has been visiting U.S. senator Ted Cruz in Texas, is planning to publish its own budget on November 14, the Indy reports. Fear not, markets — it’s only a fantasy budget this time. The real Autumn Statement is due on November 22.

AS FOR BORIS: The Sunday Express’ David Williamson has a fun take on last year’s Tory resignation dramas. He says Labour politicians were starting to get worried that their relentless attacks on Boris Johnson were about to backfire at the point his premiership imploded last year. He speculates that if ministers, including Rishi Sunak, had not resigned, then Johnson might still be prime minister. Something for the ex-PM to ponder in his Oxfordshire pile. 

ICYMI: Australia overwhelmingly rejected a plan to give greater rights to Indigenous people in a referendum on Saturday. The BBC has more.

MEDIA ROUND

Ayesha Hazarika on Times Radio (4 p.m. to 7 p.m.):  SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn … Former home secretary Jack Straw … Labour MP Stella Creasy … Tory MP Steve Brine …. Lib Dems MP Christine Jardine.

Westminster Hour (BBC Radio 4, 10 p.m.): Tory peer James Bethell … Shadow Skills Minister Seema Molhotra … SNP MP Alyn Smith … the FT”s George Parker.

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WEEK AHEAD

SUNDAY

ELECTION: Poland is holding parliamentary elections today. POLITICO’s Wojciech Kość has a nice primer on the six key questions going into the poll.

CONFERENCE: The SNP conference has kicked off. Deputy First Minister Shona Robinson is due to speak, 4 p.m.

MONDAY

COMMONS: Sits from 2.30 p.m. with leveling-up questions followed by debates on childcare and knife crime. 

CONFERENCE: Deputy SNP leader Keith Brown to address the SNP conference, 2 p.m. 

TUESDAY

ISRAELI-HAMAS CONFLICT: EU leaders to hold a video conference on Tuesday to discuss the war in the Middle East, 5.30 p.m. local time.

COMMONS: Sits from 11.30 a.m. with health and social care questions followed by ping pong in the Leveling-Up and Regeneration Bill.

CONFERENCE: Scottish First Minister Humza Yousaf to close the SNP party conference with keynote speech, 3.15 p.m.

CONFLICT: Foreign Office Minister Tariq Ahmed up in front of the foreign affairs committee which is following up its Afghanistan inquiry, 2.30 p.m.

ECONOMY: Office for National Statistics to publish latest labor market and wage statistics, 7 a.m.

WEDNESDAY

ECONOMY: Latest inflation data to be published by the Office for National Statistics, 7 a.m.

COMMONS: Sits from 11.30 a.m. with Wales questions followed by PMQs and the Energy Bill.

CULTURE: Former Chancellor George Osborne up in front of the culture committee giving evidence on the British Museum, 10 a.m.

ENERGY: Ofgem’s proposed new Chairman Mark McAllister up in front of the energy security and net zero committee, 1.30 p.m.

TAXMAN: First Permanent Secretary of HMRC Jim Harra up at the Treasury committee, 2.15 p.m.

THURSDAY

BY-ELECTION: Mid-Bedfordshire and Tamworth by-elections to be held.

ECONOMY: Office for Budget Responsibility to publish its forecast evaluation report looking at how it has performed, 11 a.m.  

COMMONS: Sits from 9.30 a.m. with environment and attorney general questions followed by the business statement and debates on birth trauma and baby loss.

CRUMBLY WESTMINSTER: Clerk of the House of Commons Tom Goldsmith in front of the public accounts committee on the restoration and renewal project latest, 10 a.m.

HOME AFFAIRS: Asylum seekers due to return to the Bibby Stockholm following outbreak of legionella.

FRIDAY

BY-ELECTION: Fallout from the by-elections in Mid-Bedfordshire and Tamworth with results coming in the early hours. 

COMMONS: Private Members’ Bills.

ANNIVERSARY: Former Prime Minister Liz Truss announced her resignation a year ago.

SUNDAY

ELECTION: Argentina to hold presidential and legislative elections and Switzerland to hold federal elections.

LABOUR: Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper to address the Jewish Labour Movement conference. 

Thanks: To Jones Hayden for giving Crunch some Sunday sparkle.

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