Sunak’s problem is that Britain has stopped listening to the Tories

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One of John Major’s cabinet ministers once likened the relationship with voters in the last years to a couple heading for divorce, glaring at each other over the toast and where “even the sound of the milk on the cornflakes is a source of irritation”. 

In those final months, Tory MPs stopped believing they could win the next election, leadership contenders prioritised their own ambitions and media supporters argued over how to shape the party after a defeat. Above all, voters simply stopped listening to the Tories. No matter that Major was a decent man and Kenneth Clarke an impressive chancellor, the public had seen enough. Efforts to change the narrative were consumed by bad news, gaffes or minor scandals which seemed to epitomise the decay.

This must all sound familiar to Rishi Sunak. Once again we see a government with a studious premier and a capable chancellor trying to appear fresh after too many years in power. And yet, as one ally laments: “The country doesn’t seem interested in what we are saying”. 

The polls suggest he is right. Labour’s large lead over the Tories has been steady for more than a year. Sunak’s personal ratings are flatlining and in one recent poll 84 per cent said the government looked “tired”. Ill discipline and personal ambition abound. At the weekend, Michael Gove toyed with the issue of wealth taxes to tackle intergenerational fairness in an interview with the FT. One may applaud the sentiment but a party heading into a difficult election should not be floating ideas designed to alienate older voters, the only cohort the Tories reliably retain.

Sunak’s initial strategy for re-engaging the public was to show voters his party had changed and was worth a fresh hearing by delivering on five key pledges, including cutting NHS waiting lists, halving inflation and curbing illegal cross-channel immigration. Yet even where the data suggests headway, voters are not feeling any improvement, especially on living standards. Meanwhile, political mis-steps have undermined the effort. The number of illegal entrants should fall by 15-20 per cent this year but Tories have so hyped up the issue that this will be seen as failure.

Summer offensives have failed to land. Labour’s Keir Starmer is unsportingly refusing to walk into Tory traps. A mini-reshuffle last week signified only Sunak’s dependence on loyalist ministers.

And his inability to make the weather leaves him exposed to bad luck. This week has been dominated by a furore over dangerous school buildings; it’s emblematic of the wider crisis in public services, which the opposition finds easy to blame on years of Tory under-investment. Health and rail strikes continue. The impression is of a country that does not work as it should and a government which has run out of answers.

Even decent ideas, such as chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s pension reforms to boost investment or efforts to cut the numbers on long-term sickness benefits, fail to impress because voters sense they have heard it all before. 

Many blame Sunak’s own political errors and weaknesses. Media outriders and backbench MPs demand the bold differentiation of tax cuts and diluted net zero policies. In a clear admission that he is failing to engage voters, allies promise more aggression and talk bizarrely of unleashing the “real Rishi”. A second bloodier reshuffle is promised, plus more attacks on Labour and greater use of identity politics. They are right on diagnosing the problems but if voters have stopped paying heed to your arguments, “shout louder” is rarely a compelling strategy.

In truth though, the malaise is about more than Sunak’s tactical shortcomings. He simply finds himself in power as the music stops. He is reaping the whirlwind of what will be, by election year, 14 years of Tory government, of austerity, Brexit rows, partygate, the Truss interlude and two huge strokes of bad luck in Covid and Ukraine-fuelled inflation.

Not since the vaccine rollout have the Tories enjoyed favourable public attention. One reason for their enthusiasm for goading Labour’s London mayor over his anti-pollution Ulez charge is that it is the first time in months that an attack has resonated with supporters. But the Ulez will not win a general election; it probably won’t even win the next mayoral election.

The most precious commodity now is the attention of the electorate. With voters no longer listening and the benefit of the doubt gone, they are increasingly forced to behave like an opposition, fighting to get a hearing.

Another dramatic shock could change the political trajectory. But something has to change. Conservatives hope the inevitable extra focus on Labour’s manifesto will scare wavering voters. There is precedent for this. But it is equally possible that as Starmer rolls out the final part of his three-stage plan — the positive case for Labour — it could garner, in fact, more enthusiasm.

Ministers predict an economic upturn next spring, though the Resolution Foundation think-tank says this will not improve living standards before the election. And even better economic news can be double-edged as an improved outlook can also leave voters more confident about change.

Sunak still has more than a year if he chooses. He has long argued it may take until the final weeks for Tory voters to come home. But as Major’s ministers will remember, once voters stop listening, politics is a place where no one can hear you scream.

robert.shrimsley@ft.com