Steve Matthews’ Kentucky Derby 2021 analysis

Profit Line (PL) represents Steve Matthews’ judgment of the horse’s chances of winning based on post time odds. Horses should only be played to win or used in exotic wagers if they meet or exceed their profit line at post time.

1. KNOWN AGENDA

One of four Todd Pletcher runners in the field. Earned a fast late-pace figure when a visually and numerically impressive winner of the Florida Derby. The son of Curlin logged two swift 5-furlong workouts at Churchill Downs in the interim. Big-time player whose only knock is starting from the rail. One of the top contenders.

ML: 6-1 PL: 5-1

2. LIKE THE KING

A 50-1 long shot that’s slow on final numbers. On the plus side, he hails from the Wesley Ward barn and is training swiftly at Keeneland. Remember, everything in horse racing is about price. If you like him, demand 60-1 or greater.

ML: 50-1 PL: 60-1

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3. BROOKLYN STRONG

This 50-1 outsider was bought for just $5,000 last spring (think you and a friend combining your two stimulus checks) and now he has a shot at $1.6 million (winner’s share of the purse). In reality, he has no shot. Do a rain dance, he did freak when winning the Remsen in the slop last fall at the Big A.

ML: 50-1 PL: 100-1

4. KEEPMEINMIND

Forget about him at post time. He’s been soundly defeated in both his starts as a 3-year-old. Silver lining: He outworked 107 rivals in a half-mile drill at Churchill Downs on Sunday.

ML: 50-1 PL 100-1

5: SAINTHOOD

Would take an act of God to win. He’s only got a maiden victory to his credit, but if you’re looking to hang your hat on something, this Pletcher-trained horse did endure a rough trip when second in minor Turfway Park stake last time.

ML: 50-1 PL: 100-1

6: O BESOS

Spanish for “kisses.” He would deserve more than a big buss if this son of Orb follows in his daddy’s footsteps and wears the Roses. He’d have to improve on his final figures to get the job done but he is peaking at the right time and could suck up for a piece if a pace meltdown comes to pass.

ML: 20-1 PL: 50-1

7. MANDALOUN

Named for a term used to describe Lebanese architecture, in case you were wondering. He regressed (sixth beaten 11 lengths) when he was favored in the Louisiana Derby last out. In fact, he’s been the favorite in all five of his starts. Not surprising, because he hails from the Brad Cox barn (Trainer of the Year). Not high on horses heading into the Big Dance off subpar efforts, and he’s likely to attract too much cash once again. Can you say underlay?

ML: 15-1 PL: 30-1

8. MEDINA SPIRIT

Burned a boatload of cash when a well-beaten second at a putrid 90 cents on the dollar in the Santa Anita Derby. He’ll attract a ton of money once again and it appears the 1 1/4-mile distance is beyond his scope. Put your wagers elsewhere.

ML: 15-1 PL 30-1

9. HOT ROD CHARLIE

Looked more like an Indy car when cruising to victory in the Louisiana Derby last time. It appears he’ll have more to give, considering he earned a faster final figure as a 2-year-old. Has no workouts over the track, which does raise concerns. Bottom line: There’s good and bad. Let post time odds guide your decision.

ML: 8-1 PL: 20-1

10. MIDNIGHT BOURBON

A consistent sort that’s finished in the money in all seven starts. There are problems, however. He’ll likely attract too much cash, he’s light on late-pace figures and he probably can’t handle the distance. No thanks.

ML: 20-1 PL: 40-1

11. DYNAMIC ONE

Pletcher’s third Derby entry appeared to be a certain winner when cutdown by Bourbonic in the Wood (negative). In his favor, he seems to relish the Churchill Downs strip (final drill was a crisp half-mile breeze) and he could offer a price that’s greater than his projected Profit Line. Keep an eye on him.

ML: 20-1 PL 12-1

12. HELIUM

He’s 3-for-3 (albeit against lesser foes), and he finishes his races in a manner that suggests the distance could be in his wheelhouse. Biggest knock is the 56-day layoff and his works have been less than inspiring. Mixed message.

ML: 50-1 PL: 40-1

13. HIDDEN STASH

His chances are very well hidden. Has yet to find the winner’s circle as a 3-year-old and he’s slow on the numbers.

ML: 50-1 PL: 200-1

14. ESSENTIAL QUALITY

The 2-year-old champ and morning-line favorite is hard to fault on paper and checks all the boxes. He’s yet to taste defeat in five starts, he’s earned progressively faster late-pace figures in all his races and he’s trained impressively at Churchill Downs. But for the value-minded player, he’s one that won’t get the pulse racing. Top player but this corner is looking elsewhere.

ML: 2-1 PL: 3-1

15. ROCK YOUR WORLD

Ultra impressive in the Santa Anita Derby. Shrugged off a challenger while setting a blistering :22.4 opening quarter-mile and then just continued to run up the score thereafter, winning by more than four lengths. Early speed is the most important factor in any horse race and the Derby is no different. This 20-horse field comes up light on speed and Rock Your World projects as the dominant front-runner. Top selection.

ML: 5-1 PL: 3-1

16: KING FURY

Made a strong rally to win the Lexington at Keeneland last time and he’s a two-time victor at Churchill Downs, too. This rapidly developing son of Curlin is likely to fall through the cracks in the betting and has the proper running style to land in exotics at a juicy ticket. Top- three contender.

ML: 20-1 PL: 15-1

17. HIGHLY MOTIVATED

Five starts, five in-the-money finishes and Chad Brown as your trainer, to boot. What’s not to like? Well, for one he’ll be ove bet. Number two, he could be sitting on a bounce (regression) after an extremely hard-fought placing in the Blue Grass. You make the call.

ML: 10-1 PL: 18-1

18. SUPER STOCK

Clear-cut winner of the Arkansas Derby last time probably benefitted from a fast pace. He does possess an advantageous stalker’s running style and makes his peak third start as a 3-year-old and 30-1 ML is just too much price to ignore. Worth long look.

ML: 30-1 PL: 20-1

19. SOUP AND SANDWICH

He’ll be in front of most of the field in the early going. The problem is he’ll probably be behind most of them at the finish. Appears to be a pace casualty.

ML: 30-1 PL: 50-1

20. BOURBONIC

Pletcher’s fourth Derby entry pulled off a shocker when a last-to-first winner of the Wood at 72-1 last time. Jockey Kendrick Carmouche is enjoying the finest streak of his career and this would be the cherry on the top of a fairy tale run. Certainly has a chance at a fat number.

ML: 30-1 PL: 30-1

TOP FOUR PICKS BASED ON PRICE POTENTIAL

1. ROCK YOUR WORLD

2. KNOWN AGENDA

3. KING FURY

4. ESSENTIAL QUALITY