State of the Pen: Toronto’s Relief Options

The Toronto Blue Jays could compile one of the league’s better bullpens from their Injured List.

Kirby Yates and David Phelps are out for the season, Julian Merryweather sits on the 60-day IL, and Ryan Borucki, A.J. Cole, and Travis Bergen all remain banged up. The Blue Jays are running low on leverage options, and in recent games it’s shown. In their last five losses, Toronto’s bullpen has allowed 14 runs and taken the loss twice.

But with injuries has come opportunity, and due to the success of several relatively unknown arms, Toronto still owns the 11th best bullpen ERA in baseball (3.7). Manager Charlie Montoyo has become known for his flexible and unscripted bullpen usage, but the current structure of the Blue Jay bullpen plan is as follows:

The Closers:

RH Rafael Dolis (4.58 ERA, 1.322 WHIP, 11 K/9)

RH Jordan Romano (1.74 ERA, 1.113 WHIP, 11.8 K/9)

The 2021 Blue Jays have never had a traditional ‘closer’ and six different pitchers have notched at least one of Toronto’s 11 saves. But with injuries to Merryweather and Yates, the late-inning duties have fallen mainly on Dolis and Romano. 

The two righties are the only two pitchers on Toronto’s roster with 10+ appearances in high leverage, with Romano leading the way pitching half the time in leverage situations. Romano has been Toronto’s second most valuable pitcher per win probability added (behind Julian Merryweather’s +1.1 in just 4.1 IP!). Though Romano’s walk-rate is 2.1 BB/9 higher than 2020, Montoyo has regularly held Romano back for the end of games. The rare times he isn’t in line for a save it’s only because he is asked to battle opponent’s top-of-the-order instead.

The Leverage Options:

RH Tyler Chatwood (4.98 ERA, 1.431 WHIP, 10.8 K/9)

RH Anthony Castro (1.93 ERA, .929 WHIP, 10.3 K/9)

LH Tim Mayza (6.11 ERA, 1.472 WHIP, 9.2 K/9)

This year has been tumultuous for this second group of Blue Jay relievers. Each has had shining moments where they were an answer for every bullpen question, and each has had stretches where they looked unusable. 

To begin the season Tyler Chatwood was snapping his cutter, painting the outside corner to righties, and allowed just eight hits in his first 16 outings. In the last two weeks, he’s allowed 11 runs, saw a dip in velocity and loss of control, and looked nothing like his early-season self. With a solid outing Wednesday against the White Sox he showed signs of getting back on track, and the Blue Jays will need him to do so to have reliable seventh and eighth innings arms in him and Castro.

There is a glaring lack of left-handers in the Blue Jays current pen, with Tim Mayza as the only southpaw. Montoyo has shown little dedication to platoon matchups and has let Mayza face both lefties and righties, even using him in big innings of late. With the high ceiling and low floor Mayza has shown at times this year, the Blue Jays will rely on him as a lefty weapon, late inning reliever, and perhaps even occasional closer — at least until Borucki returns.

“The way bullpen is now everybody’s got to be ready for any point in the game,” Mayza said. “Go in there and expect to do well, expect to do your job and get as many out as possible.”

The Others:

RH Trent Thornton (3.45 ERA, 1.326 WHIP, 9.4 K/9)

RH Carl Edwards Jr. (7.36 ERA, 2.182 WHIP, 4.9 K/9)

RH Joel Payamps (3.20 ERA, 1.224 WHIP, 6.0 K/9)

RH Jeremy Beasley (6.75 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 13.5 K/9)

With the injuries Toronto’s bullpen has sustained, many of the back of the pen options weren’t even in consideration on Opening Day. Three of the four above arms weren’t in the organization at the start of Spring Training.

While Thornton and Payamps have both shown increased velocity, solid peripherals, and pitched admirably in middle relief, the Blue Jay bullpen is decidedly thin right now. Carl Edwards Jr. has a track record of success and Jeremy Beasley’s ten strikeouts in 6.2 innings speak to his raw stuff, but neither have been trusted in close games yet.

Until Toronto can get healthy and Borucki and Merryweather return, every game asking for more than two innings from the bullpen will be relying on a pitcher to outperform their numbers. For now, Montoyo can lean on Dolis and Romano, and hope for good days from his other high-ceiling options. But if this bullpen is to succeed it will fall on the starting pitching to not ask too much of them.