SIMMONS: The answer to Leafs’ playoffs woes: Getting a lot more from Matthews, Marner and Nylander
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Published Feb 21, 2023 • Last updated 7 hours ago • 4 minute read
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Toronto Maple Leafs forward Mitchell Marner and forward William Nylander congratulate forward Auston Matthews on his goal against the Tampa Bay Lightning during the second period of game one of the first round of the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scotiabank Arena. Photo by John E. Sokolowski /USA TODAY Sports Article content
When the Colorado Avalanche won the Stanley Cup with run-of-the-mill goaltending, they did so because of the brilliant play of their most prominent stars, Cale Makar and Nathan MacKinnon.
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The year before, the Tampa Bay Lightning won their second straight Cup with the fabulous Andrei Vasilevskiy in goal, and with giant performances, from Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point. When Jon Cooper’s Lightning won their first Cup, defenceman Victor Hedman was a rock, almost 30-minute playing defenceman, and Kucherov and Point both scored more than 30 playoff points.
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You can almost go year by year, and see the two Stanley Cups won by the Pittsburgh Penguins or the three Cups won by the Chicago Blackhawks and the performance in the post-season is rather basic. Pittsburgh won three times being led by Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Phil Kessel in scoring. Blackhawks won being led by Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews and the future Hall of Famer, Duncan Keith on defence. When Los Angeles won two Cups, they were led by Anze Kopitar up front and Drew Doughty on defence, Jonathan Quick in goal.
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As always the Maple Leafs are looking for roster answers – but the answers, really, are right in front of Brendan Shanahan and Kyle Dubas. The answers are Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and John Tavares. Maybe Morgan Rielly. Now maybe Ryan O’Reilly.
You don’t win the Cup, let alone a playoff round, let alone the kind of effort it will take to advance and continue to grow to a Conference Final, let alone a championship round, without your Makar being Makar, without MacKinnon being MacKinnon, without Toews and Kane being Toews and Kane.Matthews, like Marner, like Nylander, like Rielly, have all played six playoff rounds together. Lost all of them. Tavares has been there for four of them, albeit injured for the one round against the Montreal Canadiens. And not one of these game-breaking, sensational, highly-paid offensive players is close to a point a game.
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Matthews and Marner are best with 33 points in 39 playoff games.
That’s 69-point scoring pace over the course of a season. That’s 23 points below what Matthews averages in his career. That’s 19 points below what Marner scores year after year. Marner has seven goals in 39 postseason games. Seven?
Tavares, who came to Toronto to win a Stanley Cup in his hometown, has 14 points in 20 playoff games with the Leafs. That’s 57-point pace over an 82-game season. He’s a 77-point scorer, regular season.In Tampa’s three Stanley Cup runs in a row – two victories and one loss to Colorado – Kucherov scored 93 points in 70 games. In the 117 playoff games, Matthews, Marner, Nylander have played in their careers with the Maple Leafs, they have combined for 96 points.
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And in just 37 playoff games in his career for a team almost as challenged in the post-season as the Leafs, Leon Draisaitl has accumulated 59 points for the Edmonton Oilers.
The Leafs can trade for O’Reilly, they can trade for Noel Acciari, they can add a defenceman, they can bring in goaltending depth, but if their big men don’t score, they’re going nowhere. And the way the post-season is set up right now, the Leafs will open against Tampa Bay for the second season in a row.
That means they’re beginning against Point and Kucherov. That means they’re playing against the great Vasilevskiy. That means they’re lining up against Hedman for almost half the game. There is no assurance of winning the series, even as Tampa has been up and down and certainly thinner than they’ve been in the past.
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The winner of that series, we assume, will take on the Boston Bruins. That’s the best team in hockey this year. Whether the Bruins succumb to the annual curse of the President’s Trophy winners is one thing, but this is far and away the most complete team in hockey. To win Round 1, the Leafs would have to beat a two-time champion. To win Round 2, they would have to do the impossible. To win Round 3, they would probably match up against the Carolina Hurricanes or the roster-heavy New York Rangers.
This isn’t the Western Conference.
There are at least five teams in the East capable of playing for the Stanley Cup. In the Rangers’ 20 playoff games last season, their top four scorers contributed 79 points in 20 games. Two of their forwards scored 10 goals apiece.
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The Leafs have yet to have a great playoff from any of their supposedly great players.
Toronto lost in Game 7 last May and scored one goal against Tampa at home. The year before, the Leafs lost in Game 7 to Montreal, scoring once. In the bubble of Toronto, at home for all the playoff games, they were shut out in Game 5 of a best-of-five series by Columbus of all teams. In the final game against Boston the year before that, they managed just one goal.
That’s three goals in four win-or-go-home games. That’s three goals from three of the seventh-highest-paid players in the National Hockey League.
Dubas can add a piece here, a piece there, and keep pushing hard to make his Maple Leafs’ roster deeper and stronger, but the truth doesn’t change. Come playoffs, it’s going to be up to Matthews, Marner, and Nylander to do what they’ve never done before.
You don’t win without it. Not a round. Not a chance.
ssimmons@postmedia.comtwitter.com/simmonssteve
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