Shohei Ohtani free agency: Why his next contract could still break records, even if two-way star needs surgery

Los Angeles Angels two-way star Shohei Ohtani will not pitch again this season after being diagnosed with a torn UCL in his right elbow. Ohtani received the news on Wednesday after leaving his start against the Cincinnati Reds alongside a trainer. It’s unclear at this point if Ohtani will require Tommy John surgery, or if he’ll be able to make a full recovery through rest and alternative treatment. 

Tommy John surgery rehab for a pitcher takes at least 12 months from tip to tail. Teams have become more conservative in recent years, allowing their pitchers closer to 14 months. Either way, Ohtani is highly unlikely to throw a pitch in 2024 if he has to undergo Tommy John surgery for the second time in his career.

Ohtani’s injury is unfortunately timed in another sense, as he’s just weeks away from qualifying for free agency. Earlier this summer, CBS Sports polled various industry insiders and learned that they expected him to fetch a contract worth at least $500 million this winter. That would easily shatter Mike Trout’s record for the most guaranteed money ($426 million) on a contract in baseball history. So how might Ohtani’s injury impact his number? 

After speaking with more insiders on Thursday, the answer is that nobody knows at this point. Some expressed doubt that the needle would move much at all, others admitted they were unsure where the bidding might end up. We’re not going to pretend we know, either, but we did want to present three reasons why Ohtani’s market could prove to be more resilient than you might expect.

1. He’s still one of the best hitters in baseball

The beauty of Ohtani’s game is that he’s not just a pitcher. If one of the winter’s other top arms, say Blake Snell, required Tommy John surgery, then teams would have to accept that they would receive no value from him next year. Not so with Ohtani, who could still contribute as a hitter.

Granted, the timing of Ohtani’s potential operation could impact his availability at the plate. The first time he underwent Tommy John surgery, back in fall 2018, he did not return to the Angels lineup until May 2019. For a more recent example of a position player’s post-Tommy John timeline, consider that Philadelphia Phillies star Bryce Harper returned 160 days after his operation. That was the fastest return on record by a major-league player. 

If teams are viewing Ohtani only as a hitter for the 2024 season, they’re still certain to conclude they want him on their roster — especially given this winter’s crop of position players. Here’s how Ohtani’s offensive statistics since 2021 stack up against a few of the other top bats from this upcoming class:

Again, it’s not a great class for position players, but there’s no doubt that a one-way Ohtani is still a remarkable talent.

2. Teams tolerate risk

Teams always have to accept the downside whenever they’re signing pitchers to long-term deals. That’s one thing that actuaries and Zen masters can agree upon: the new vase is already broken.

In Ohtani’s case, even if he entered the offseason with a clean bill of health, teams were going to have to be honest with themselves. Not only about the chances of him suffering an arm injury, but about the likelihood that he would require a different usage pattern at some point in his career. It was always unrealistic to think he’d be able to continue to shoulder this workload forever. That can mean different things to different teams. Maybe it means inserting some offsetting language in the contract. Maybe it means Ohtani pitches once a week and gets an off day around his start. Maybe it means that, at some point further down the road, he’s moved into a relief role. 

Whatever the case, teams were likely already open minded about what may come to pass.

Even so, teams will have to adjust their calculus to account for a second Tommy John surgery should Ohtani undergo the knife. The bad news is that there are potential complications with the second operation, including a lengthier rehab process. The good news is there are several examples of starting pitchers coming back strong from their second operation, including Nathan Eovaldi and Jameson Taillon. (Walker Buehler will soon attempt to do the same for the Los Angeles Dodgers, as will Rangers ace Jacob deGrom next year.) 

The prevalence of the operation suggests that sooner or later teams will have to grow more comfortable giving big deals to pitchers with multiple Tommy John surgeries under their belts. Ohtani might represent a starting point.

3. Supply and demand

Anyone who has ever taken an economics class knows it’s largely a waste of time. But that point where the two curved lines representing supply and demand intersect? That’s perhaps the biggest reason why Ohtani remains likely to sign a massive free-agent contract with someone this winter.

In other words, there’s only one player capable of doing what Ohtani can do, and there are a lot of high rollers who would like to employ that player. Maybe a team or two ducks out, choosing to spend their money on what they perceive to be less-risky profiles. 

For as long as there are at least a few runaway spenders willing to throw big money Ohtani’s way, there’s not going to be much room for discounts — second Tommy John surgery or otherwise.