Sheila Jackson Lee holds a narrow lead against Amanda Edwards in Democratic primary for TX-18, poll finds

(Left) Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee and former Houston City Council Member Amanda Edwards.

Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee enjoys a narrow lead over former Houston City Council Member Amanda Edwards in the Democratic primary contest for the Texas 18th Congressional District. But with a significant number of voters yet to make up their minds, Jackson Lee has more reason to worry about losing her seat than she has in decades. That’s the finding of a poll just out on Thursday morning from the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs.

According to the poll, 43% of likely voters said they planned to support Jackson Lee, while 38% said they would vote for Edwards. Sixteen percent said they were still undecided, and 3% said they intended to vote for Robert Slater.

“I would say that the incumbent is vulnerable,” said Renée Cross, senior executive director of the Hobby School. “While a five-point lead is certainly a nice lead, for someone that has been in office as long as the congresswoman to have an opponent come in and push it to five points, I think, is certainly noteworthy.”

Cross said that there were several factors that could explain why Edwards had closed the gap with Jackson Lee to within five points.

“First of all, while the congresswoman has held that office for 30 years, that district is considerably different than it was 30 years ago. It has a much larger proportion of Latino voters, a lot more young, white professionals. It’s not the traditional Congressional District 18 that, say, Congressman Mickey Leland led.”

Jackson Lee’s recent loss to John Whitmire in the Houston mayoral race also shed some light on her relatively weak polling. “The Congresswoman certainly had a considerable amount of media coverage during the recent mayoral election. And, frankly, not all of that coverage was good,” Cross said, adding, “At this, point more Latino voters are supportive of Edwards than Jackson Lee, which is consistent with what we found during the mayoral election, when Latino voters, you know, supported candidate Whitmire in greater numbers.”

Cross also credited Edwards for her own strong performance against Jackson Lee. “Amanda Edwards is certainly a viable candidate,” Cross said. “She was, I think, a rather active city council member while she served on Houston City Council. And she has been very successful in fundraising for this seat. She is outraised the congresswoman, in fact, by a considerable margin.”

The poll also examined several other races in the Houston area. It showed Congresswoman Lizzie Fletcher with an overwhelming lead of 78% to 11% against her primary challenger for the Texas 7th Congressional District. Pervez Agwan has faced several accusations of covering up for sexual harassment among his senior staffers, as well as at least one accusation of sexual harassment against Agwan himself.

“Fletcher has established herself as a very pragmatic leader in that district,” Cross said. “With her opponent’s troubles, I think if anyone was even tempted…to look at another candidate, he’s probably not the alternative, at least for this particular round.”

By contrast, the race to fill Mayor Whitmire’s former seat in the Texas State Senate is locked in a near-dead heat between three of six leading Democratic candidates. Molly Cook and State Representative Jarvis Johnson polled at 18% apiece among likely voters in Texas Senate District 15, while Todd Litton polled 14%. A whopping 37% of likely voters in the contest said they were still unsure of their choice.

“With Molly Cook, I think people are familiar with her in that district having run as a candidate for Senate District 15 before,” Cross said. “Of course, candidate Jarvis Johnson has served part of that district as a State House member, and (Todd) Litton has run in a very high-profile race previously (against Congressman Dan Crenshaw).”

Other Democratic candidates in the race to succeed Whitmire include Karthik Soora, Michelle Anderson Bonton, and Alberto “Beto” Cardenas. There’s also one Republican candidate, Joseph L. Trahan. The last time a Republican won the 15th State Senate District was more than 50 years ago.

“This a pretty solid Democratic seat just based on the district,” said Max Moll, a principal at Cornerstone Government Affairs. “It’s the first time the seat’s been open in 40 years, now Mayor Whitmire is the mayor of the City of Houston.”

Voters in the 15th State Senate District could find themselves at the polls more than most other Houston residents this year, according to Mustafa Tameez, founder and CEO of Outreach Strategists.

“This particular Senate district race shows that democracy is really messy,” Tameez said, “because we have not only an election in the primary and potentially a runoff, then we have a special election, probably a runoff in that, and then you’ve got a general election in November.”