Senators trade tiers: Who stays and who goes ahead of the deadline?

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The next two weeks could give us a very good window into Steve Staios’ philosophy at the helm of the Ottawa Senators.

As Staios heads into his first trade deadline on March 8, there will be plenty of focus on the rookie general manager.

How does he handle the Vladimir Tarasenko situation? Does he stand pat and allow the team’s recent run of success to continue without making any significant changes? Or does he look at the big picture and engineer a significant trade to shake up the culture of a franchise that hasn’t made the playoffs since 2017?

To help give fans an idea of what assets Staios might be willing to move, we’ve broken up the organizational roster into 10 separate tiers. These range anywhere from completely untouchable players to those likely to be shipped out at some point. And we’re only analyzing players who are currently under contract with Ottawa.

This has been an annual exercise with The Athletic and we’ve made minor tweaks over the years to reflect the changing trajectory of the organization. This year, for example, we’ve added a new tier to illustrate some high-end players — like Jakob Chychrun or Thomas Chabot — who could be trade chips if Staios is looking to make a significant trade.

If you don’t agree with the placement of certain players, feel free to make your alterations to these tiers in the comment section below.

Tier 1: The absolute untouchables

These are players who are not going to be traded under any circumstances.

In this tier last season: Josh Norris, Jake Sanderson, Tim Stützle, Brady Tkachuk

Jake Sanderson: It’s wild that Sanderson is still on his entry-level contract. His massive eight-year, $64.4 million contract kicks in next season. At the tender age of 21, Sanderson has become Ottawa’s most consistent and reliable defenceman. The arrow is still pointing skyward for Sanderson and he should anchor this team’s blue line for the better part of the next decade.

Tim Stützle: In our recent fan survey for The Athletic, Stützle emerged as the most “untouchable” player on Ottawa’s roster, with nearly 97 percent of fans saying he should not be traded under any circumstances. By his own admission, Stützle has had an inconsistent season in 2023-24 and won’t come close to pushing the 39 goals he scored last season. But he’s still tracking toward a point per game and has shown flashes of his offensive brilliance in recent weeks. Ottawa should still view him as the long-term, game-breaking No. 1 centre for this franchise.

Brady Tkachuk: Tkachuk remains the face of the franchise in Ottawa. While he’s not the most skilled forward within the group, he’s emerged into Ottawa’s most consistent and dangerous goal-scoring threat. He’s trending toward scoring 35 goals in consecutive seasons. The only other players to do that in Ottawa history? Marian Hossa and Dany Heatley. Factor in that he’s the captain and signed to a contract through the 2027-28 season and there’s no doubting Tkachuk’s status as a clear untouchable on this roster.

Tier 2: They’re also not going anywhere

This tier is reserved for players who aren’t cornerstone, franchise players but who are likely to be significant contributors when the Senators are a playoff contender.

In this tier last season: Drake Batherson, Thomas Chabot, Claude Giroux, Shane Pinto, Artem Zub

Claude Giroux: Giroux has managed to outperform his $6.5 million contract, basically producing at a point-per-game clip since joining the Senators last season. He’s a savvy veteran who will likely demand to see a winning product by this time next season — or else he might feel the urge to look elsewhere to finish out his career. But in the here and now, Giroux should be as close to an untouchable as you can find on Ottawa’s roster.

Ridly Greig: Greig has skyrocketed up Ottawa’s depth chart over the past three months, going from a bubble NHLer to a full-time contributor on this roster. Greig brings a degree of flexibility — he has the skill set to play both centre and wing — which should make him valuable in the years ahead. And because he’s only in the second year of his entry-level deal, the Senators don’t have to sign him to a new contract until the 2025-26 season.

Mathieu Joseph: Given the way he’s played this season, it seems ludicrous to think Joseph was potentially being dangled as a trade chip to free up cap space a few months ago. Joseph has enjoyed a terrific bounce-back season in Ottawa and will certainly set career highs in goals and points. At a $2.95 million cap hit through the 2025-26 season, Joseph is a very useful and versatile winger who can be plugged into various spots in the Senators’ top nine.

Shane Pinto: It’s no coincidence the fortunes of the Senators have reversed since Pinto returned to their lineup in the middle of January. The 23-year-old is a smart centreman who plays a responsible 200-foot game. He’s also their only natural right-shot centre, which should make him extremely valuable on this roster. A 20-goal scorer in his rookie season, it will be interesting to see how his next contract shapes up. Do the Senators bridge him or try and lock him up long-term?

Artem Zub: The Senators seem like they’re desperately trying to find a clone for Zub — a right-shot defenceman who can play a reliable game in his own zone. With three more years on his contract, which comes with a $4.6 million cap hit, it’s safe to assume Zub will be an anchor inside this team’s top four in the years ahead.

Tier 3: Let’s have a conversation

This is a new tier for this season, created for the handful of high-end players who might be available if the Senators are looking to execute a trade to shake up their core. These are players who are viewed highly within the organization but who might be able to attract quality trade returns.

Drake Batherson: At times, Batherson can go through inconsistent stretches and last season’s minus-35 rating was certainly eye-opening. But he possesses slick playmaking abilities and an offensive upside that few others can boast about in this organization. If he can consistently produce 20 goals and 60 points as a top-six winger, his $4.975 million cap hit through the 2026-27 season looks pretty reasonable. But if Staios and company are looking to shake up the core with a hockey trade, it stands to reason Batherson could be on the list of tradable assets that could fetch a good return.

Thomas Chabot: Chabot’s no-trade clause kicks in on July 1. He’s a natural leader and very well respected inside Ottawa’s dressing room, so trading Chabot is the most seismic move Staios could possibly make in the weeks and months ahead. It feels like Ottawa has to decide between Chabot and Jakob Chychrun at some point, but Chabot is signed through the 2027-28 season at an $8 million cap hit, which could make it difficult to trade him and expect a good return.

Jakob Chychrun: If the Senators opt to keep Chabot, trading Chychrun at some point before he hits unrestricted free agency next summer probably makes sense. Chychrun is on a very reasonable $4.6 million cap hit until then, so it’s plausible Ottawa can get good value for him on the trade market. Chychrun is adamant he’s happy in Ottawa, but if Staios is hellbent on putting his fingerprints on this roster, moving Chychrun at this year’s deadline could yield his best haul.

Josh Norris: Norris is signed through the 2029-30 season on a deal that will pay him $7.975 million per season. And shoulder issues have limited him to fewer than 200 games in his NHL career. But when he’s been healthy, Norris has produced at a very productive rate. Only Heatley has scored more goals than Norris in his first 180 games as a Senator. Ottawa should tread carefully if it is contemplating trading a 24-year-old centre with a 35-goal season under his belt.

Tier 4: Good depth guys who probably aren’t being moved

These are players who do a solid job in their roles and likely won’t be going anywhere.

In this tier last season: Anton Forsberg, Mathieu Joseph, Mark Kastelic, Parker Kelly

Jacob Bernard-Docker: Bernard-Docker is now 23 years old and because he’s no longer waiver-exempt, it’s fair to stop looking at him as a prospect. This is his first full season in the NHL and he’s holding his own as a third-pairing defenceman. And he’s a right-shot defenceman on a reasonable contract — being paid $805,000 through the end of the 2024-24 season — so Bernard-Docker should be part of Ottawa’s blue line in some capacity next year.

Parker Kelly: Kelly is one player who seems to be thriving under Jacques Martin. He scored just one goal and was seeing fewer than 10 minutes of ice time under D.J. Smith this season. But since Martin took over, Kelly has scored five goals and is playing more than 12 minutes per night. He has earned Martin’s trust and considering he’s making the league minimum this season, Kelly seems like a smart bet to come back on an inexpensive deal to play a fourth-line role again next year.

Anton Forsberg: Goaltending has been an issue in Ottawa, so it’s only natural that Forsberg has some question marks around his future. But he’s on a very reasonable contract that pays him $2.75 million through the end of next season. Forsberg has produced a .908 save percentage in more than 100 games for the Senators, showing a degree of consistency when he’s healthy.

Tier 5: Good pieces for the rebuild

This tier features solid prospects who have enough upside that they could legitimately be a part of the club’s playoff squad down the road.

In this tier last season: Jacob Bernard-Docker, Tyler Boucher, Ridly Greig, Roby Jarventie, Leevi Merilainen, Zack Ostapchuk, Mads Sogaard, Egor Sokolov, Lassi Thomson

Tyler Boucher: It’s been a challenge for the Senators’ No. 10 pick in the 2021 NHL Draft. Boucher has battled injuries and inconsistency, which has stunted his progression. But it’s easy to forget he’s still just 20 years old and possesses significant upside. Patience is the key with him; right now, writing him off as a bust feels far too premature.

Roby Jarventie: Of all the prospects in the AHL, Jarventie might possess the highest offensive ceiling. He excelled in training camp last fall and was one of the final cuts before the start of the season. Jarventie was given a handful of NHL games last season and seems to have a chance of playing more games down the road.

Tyler Kleven: In Scott Wheeler’s most recent analysis of Ottawa prospects, Kleven emerged as the No. 1 prospect in the system. With a booming shot and a penchant for physical play, Kleven projects to be an NHL defenceman down the road.

Leevi Merilainen: The biggest question mark in the Senators organization is who is going to be their long-term goalie of the future. Merilainen is only 21 years old and should be considered a candidate to fill that vacancy.

Zack Ostapchuk: Ostapchuk has a nice blend of size and speed and should have a chance to seize a bottom-line role in Ottawa at some point down the road. He’s only 20 years old and playing his first season of professional hockey in the AHL, so he’s still some time away from knocking on the door for a legitimate NHL opportunity.

Mads Sogaard: The 23-year-old Sogaard is starting to excel at the AHL level, posting a .919 save percentage in Belleville this season. He’s also had the chance to play 25 NHL games, although he’s been thrown into the deep end sooner than anticipated. It would be interesting to see what Sogaard would look like playing behind a competent and reliable defensive group at the NHL level, but to date, his NHL experience has been largely with an inconsistent group.

GO DEEPER

2024 NHL prospect pool rankings: No. 31 Ottawa Senators

Tier 6: Players who aren’t getting traded because of their contracts or injuries

These players are likely not generating outside interest based on a variety of factors including age, production, contract and injury status.

In this tier last season: Nikita Zaitsev

Travis Hamonic: Hamonic was able to negotiate a no-movement clause in his two-year extension with Pierre Dorion last summer, so the only way he’s leaving town is with his unconditional blessing.

Joonas Korpisalo: With a .887 save percentage and a last-place ranking in goals saved above expected, Korpisalo hasn’t provided the stability and consistency the Senators were hoping for when Dorion inked him to a five-year contract in July. While his cap hit is fairly reasonable ($4 million AAV), it’s almost impossible to think another team would want to trade for Korpisalo with four more years left on his deal.

Zack MacEwen: In the first year of a three-year deal, MacEwen finds himself playing in Belleville. He’s making close to the league minimum at $775,000, but the two more years left on his deal — at one-way money — make it hard to envision him being tradable this season.

Tier 7: The murky middle

These are players who could potentially get moved out, but who could theoretically also be a part of the rebuild.

In this tier last season: Erik Brannstrom, Alex DeBrincat, Alex Formenton

Erik Brannstrom: Brannstrom is closing in on the 250-game mark with the Senators and with a logjam in front of him on the left side, it’s clear he won’t be able to secure a top-four job here. He’s still young enough (24 years old) that maybe another organization sees him fitting in that role for them. He’s set to be an RFA again this summer with arbitration rights.

Mark Kastelic: Kastelic’s role has been diminished in Ottawa. If a contending team is looking for a cheap faceoff specialist on their fourth line, he would be an excellent addition. Of players who’ve taken at least 200 faceoffs this season, Kastelic ranks 13th in the entire league with a 56.8 percent success rate.

Tier 8: Players who could get traded before the deadline

This is a list of pending free agents who represent the likeliest candidates to be moved ahead of the trade deadline.

In this tier last season: Derick Brassard, Dylan Gambrell, Travis Hamonic, Nick Holden, Tyler Motte, Cam Talbot, Austin Watson

Dominik Kubalik: The only roster player recouped for Alex DeBrincat, Kubalik has fallen out of favour under Martin. He’s seeing under eight minutes of ice per night in February and has scored just once in his last 19 games. Maybe a team will be willing to take Kubalik off Ottawa’s hands at the deadline, but he likely won’t have any trade value.

Jiri Smejkal: Smejkal was a dark horse candidate to be a bottom-six player in Ottawa this season, but he hasn’t been up in the NHL in nearly two months. His AHL production (eight goals in 35 games) has been fairly underwhelming, too. At 27 and as a pending unrestricted free agent this summer, Smejkal might be a candidate to find a new home.

Vladimir Tarasenko: Tarasenko represents an interesting piece for Staios at the deadline. He’s a six-time 30-goal scorer with a Stanley Cup ring, and because he’s on an expiring contract, he should be viewed as a pure rental by a contending team. Maybe there is a path to him staying in Ottawa long term, but right now, flipping out Tarasenko for assets seems like the most likely scenario.

Tier 9: Depth players who could be traded

These players are generally viewed as depth players in the organization and likely would only be involved in minor transactions ahead of the deadline.

In this tier last season: Jonathan Aspirot, Rourke Chartier, Jayce Hawryluk, Jake Lucchini, Scott Sabourin, Dillon Heatherington, Jacob Larsson, Kristians Rubins

Rourke Chartier, Josh Currie, Dillon Heatherington, Matthew Highmore, Boko Imama, Jacob Larsson, Kevin Mandolese, Nikolas Matinpalo, Cole Reinhardt, Donovan Sebrango, Egor Sokolov, Garrett Pilon, Lassi Thomson

Tier 10: The long shots

This tier represents prospects who don’t necessarily fit any of the categories above but are young enough to have an outside chance of carving out an NHL career. (For an in-depth view of some of these players, read Scott Wheeler’s latest organizational prospect ranking.)

In this tier last season: Angus Crookshank, Philippe Daoust, Jorian Donovan, Max Guenette, Tomas Hamara, Viktor Lodin, Kevin Mandolese, Cole Reinhardt

Angus Crookshank, Philippe Daoust, Jorian Donovan, Max Guenette, Tomas Hamara, Oskar Pettersson, Djibril Toure

(Top photo of Josh Norris celebrating a goal with his teammates: Chris Tanouye / Freestyle Photography / Getty Images)