Russia’s ‘Muted’ NATO Response Contradicts Reality of Setbacks: ISW

Russia’s “muted” response to pro-Ukraine developments at this week’s NATO summit could mean that “the Kremlin has internalized” setbacks suffered in the war, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

NATO leaders “reaffirmed that Ukraine will become a member” of the alliance during the summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, this week. While no timeline for Ukraine’s admittance to NATO was announced, Kyiv also received a host of new pledges of military aid and support from NATO and G7 allies during the two-day summit.

An ISW report published on Wednesday noted an underwhelming response to the developments from Russian officials and pro-Russia military bloggers. The U.S.-based think tank suggested that the tone of the reaction meant that Moscow wanted to “avoid dwelling on” its failures since the war began, particularly with regards to NATO.

ISW pointed out that one of the primary issues that led to the Russia-Ukraine war was the eastward expansion of NATO. Russian President Vladimir Putin demanded that Kyiv commit to never joining the alliance before launching his “special military operation” on February 24, 2022.

NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, is pictured on April 4, 2023, while Russian President Vladimir Putin is shown in the inset. The Institute for the Study of War said on Wednesday that this week’s NATO summit had highlighted Russia’s failure in attempting to roll back the expansion of the alliance. KENZO TRIBOUILLARD/AFP; Contributor

Since the war began, Ukraine has inched closer to joining NATO, while Russia’s neighbor Finland became a new member of the alliance earlier this year and Sweden is on the path to join—developments that ISW said were clear indications that Russia failed in its stated goal of preventing the expansion of NATO.

“The muted Russian response belies the reality that the summit demonstrated the degree to which the 2022 Russian invasion has set back the goals for which the Kremlin claims it launched the war,” the ISW report states. “The aim of preventing NATO expansion … and pushing NATO back from Russia’s borders was one of the Kremlin’s stated demands before the invasion.”

“The lack of general outcry within the Russian information space regarding developments at the NATO summit, as well as Finland’s NATO accession and Turkey’s agreement to forward Sweden’s accession protocol, likely indicates that the Kremlin has internalized these defeats and desires to avoid dwelling on them,” it continues.

The ISW report goes on to say that Russian sources are “reporting on the NATO summit in a dispassionate and muted manner that is not commensurate with the wider defeat that the summit actually represents for Russia’s pre-war aims.”

Newsweek reached out to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Russian Ministry of Defense via email for comment on Wednesday.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov responded to the summit shortly after it concluded on Wednesday, with his office releasing a statement arguing that NATO “has finally returned to the Cold War schemes” and vowing to “continue to strengthen” Russia’s military in response.

“NATO continues its provocative policy of expansion,” the statement says. “The results of the Vilnius summit will be carefully analyzed. Taking into account the identified challenges and threats to the security and interests of Russia, we will respond in a timely and appropriate manner using all means and methods at our disposal.”