Russia-Ukraine war: US president Joe Biden makes surprise visit to Kyiv – live

The US has been asking Ukraine to consolidate its gains and “perhaps launch its own counterstrike,” according to Politico citing US officials. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said in his nightly address that he had met with Ukraine’s top generals on Sunday. “We are doing everything to prepare our moves – planning for the future, the near future,” said Zelenskiy.

Western officials and analysts say at present, Russia does not have the capabilities to launch a large-scale offensive or any offensive outside the current battles on the eastern Ukrainian front. Instead, it will continue to increase the intensity of the fighting in eastern Ukraine.

Talking to the War on the Rocks podcast on Saturday, military analyst Michael Koffman said that Russia’s new offensive started three weeks ago with its failed attack in Vuhledar. He said that while the current fighting which is concentrated in seven places in eastern Ukraine -Bakhmut, Belohorivka, Mariianka, Avdiivka, Kupiansk, Kremmina and Vuhledar – may grow in intensity, it will not grow in scope until, and if, Russia conducts a second wave of mobilisation.

Koffman said Russia was using the estimated 150,000 reserves it kept back from its October mobilisation drive to replenish and boost its ongoing offensive in eastern Ukraine.

“At this stage, the Russia military has already deployed many of the mobilised personnel … much of the rest of force that they have deployed is not an additional second army, these a replacements to substitute for casualties that they take in the fighting. The Russian military has not yet committed its reserves to these fights and it’s looking to see which axis they make progress on, that they can exploit,” said Koffman.

“The offensive may grow in intensity but not likely to grow in scope. In order to have another offensive, much larger than this, the Russian military would have to conduct a second mobilisation. They would need several hundred thousand additional personnel,” said Koffman, who described Russia’s present efforts as “underwhelming” though noted that Ukrainian forces would likely have to retreat from Bakhmut, where casualties on both sides have been huge.

A senior US military official told CNN last week that Russia’s plans for a new large-scale offensive are “more aspirational than realistic”. Writing about the Luhansk axis, Washington-based thinktank, the Institute for the Study of War, contends that Russia is struggling to replace equipment, especially tanks, lost during previous failed offensive operations.