Russia-Ukraine war: Moscow warns US over rocket shipments to Kyiv; Ukraine losing up to 100 soldiers a day – live

The expected loss of Sievierodonetsk “is unlikely to be the crux” of Russia’s Donbas campaign, a Western official said, in a war that could now grind on “to the end of the year” given the slow rate of Moscow’s advance.

The average gain of Russian forces in Popansa south of Sievierodonetsk has “averaged between 500m and 1 kilometre” a day in the last month, the official added, meaning capturing the remainder of the Donetsk region in the Donbas would take months more at least.

Russia would have to achieve “further challenging operational objectives” to declare victory on the Kremlin’s now reduced campaign terms, the official said. That would require taking the city of Kramatorsk, more of the M04 main road between the Ukrainian-held city of Dnipro and the Russian-held city of Donetsk, they added, and more rivers would have to be crossed in the process.

The official said in a briefing:

Although we see Russia is starting to learn from its mistakes and make advances in the Donbas, I think it’s important to stress that the battle for Sievierodonetsk is is unlikely to be the kind of the crux of the Donetsk campaign.

Russian casualty rates were dropping because of the increasingly concentrated fighting in the Donbas, and were probably “not necessarily significantly more” than a previous estimate of 15,000 killed given in April. The number of Russians wounded, since the war began, is estimated at about 40,000.

The west believes that Ukraine’s estimate that it is losing 60 to 100 troops a day killed in the current fighting is “pretty credible” although troop morale remains far higher than the invaders, where the official argued there was “growing disillusionment” with Russia’s slow-moving campaign among junior soldiers and more senior ranks.

Russia may slow down its offensive after capturing Sievierodonetsk to regroup, in what could amount to a pause.

The official said it was unlikely the Russian invaders would be “in a position to continue to exploit immediately” once the city, the last held by Ukraine in the Luhansk region, fell. Instead, Moscow’s forces could be forced into “a kind of an operational pause” to “reconstitute and resupply”, they said.