Russia could attack Nato within three years, warns Denmark

The Danish defence minister has warned Russia could go to war with Nato in as little as three years.

Troels Lund Poulsen,  who also serves as Denmark’s deputy prime minister, has joined colleagues from the UK, Sweden, Romania, Germany and others in raising the alarm about increased Russian defence spending and manufacturing.

“It cannot be ruled out that within a three- to five-year period, Russia will test Article 5 and Nato’s solidarity. That was not Nato’s assessment in 2023. This is new information that is coming to the fore now,” Mr Poulsen told Jyllands-Posten, a Danish newspaper.

Sweden’s prime minister this year told citizens to prepare mentally for war, while German and Estonian ministers have said that Russia could be ready to attack Nato within five to eight years.

An attack by Russia on a Nato country would force the bloc to act on its collective security pledge known as Article 5, plunging Europe into war.

“There is reason to be genuinely concerned,” said Mr Poulsen. “Russia’s capacity to produce military equipment has increased tremendously . . . Russia potentially has the will to [launch attacks]. Now they can also have the ability in terms of military capability earlier than we expected.”

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03:55 PM GMTThat’s all for today

Thank you for tuning in to today’s live blog. We’ll be back tomorrow to bring you all the latest updates from the Russia-Ukraine war.

If you haven’t already, make sure you follow our podcast for leading daily analysis from the Telegraph’s expert foreign team covering all aspects of the conflict.

03:43 PM GMTSacked Ukraine army chief a ‘traitor’, alleges Moscow

Ukraine’s new Russian-born army chief is a “traitor” who turned his back on the Soviet Union, according to Dmitry Medvedev, the former president of Russia.

Oleksandr Syrsky, who yesterday replaced Ukrainian Valery Zaluzhny in a controversial reshuffle, was born in the USSR and served in the Soviet Artillery Corps. He moved to Ukraine in the 1980s.

Mr Medvedev, who is now deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, wrote on Telegram that he felt “a sense of hatred, contempt and disgust” at the appointment of Mr Syrskyi.

“Disgust for a man who was a Soviet Russian officer, but became a Bandera traitor, who broke his oath and serves the Nazis, destroying his loved ones. May the earth burn under his feet!”

03:28 PM GMTPolish farmers block Ukraine border in protest over food prices

Polish farmers block traffic with their tractors during a protest in Stojadla village – Poland /Polish farmers launch nationwide protest

Polish farmers protest outside a local governmental office in Poznan – Bloomberg/Damian Lemański

Polish farmers gather as they block traffic during a protest in Stojadla village – PRZEMYSLAW/EPA

02:35 PM GMTRussia ‘builds military youth camps to indoctrinate Ukrainian children’

Russia has set up military “re-education camps” to indoctrinate Ukrainian teenagers in occupied Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine’s National Resistance Centre reported.

The report claims that Moscow plans to open a new “center for military-sports training and patriotic education of youth” called “Warrior” in the region to the south-east of Ukraine where children will be taught firearms and engineering training. It alleges this is “preparation for service in the Russian army”.

This follows reports that emerged last year of Russian authorities beating Ukrainian children in an attempt to re-educate them at a Moscow-run youth facility.

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, more than 19,500 Ukrainian children have been abducted and just 387 repatriated, the Kyiv Independent reported.

02:15 PM GMT‘This is how democracies die,’ says former Belgian PM over Putin-Carlson interview

Guy Verhofstadt, a former Belgian prime minister and current member of the European parliament, said that Tucker Carlson’s interview with Vladimir Putin “is the best thing that ever happened” to the Russian leader.

“America tomorrow will suffer from having him spreading lies unchallenged and unfiltered. This is how democracies die,” he said.

01:44 PM GMTSunak labels Putin’s claims of Nato aggression ‘clearly ridiculous’

Rishi Sunak has branded Putin’s claims that Russia’s war in Ukraine was a result of Nato expansion as “clearly ridiculous”

The prime minister’s denunciation comes after Putin took part in an interview with Tucker Carlson, the former Fox News host, in which the Russian president alleged that Moscow’s so-called “special military” operation in Ukraine was to protect Russian speakers in Ukraine and prevent the country from posing a threat to Russia by joining Nato

“Russia conducted an illegal, unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. I’m proud that the UK has stood strongly with Ukraine from the beginning,” Mr Sunak told broadcasters. “We can’t let this type of behaviour go unchecked. It impacts all of our security.

“We’ve already seen the impact it had on everyone’s energy bills. And that’s why we’re working closely, not just with the US but with allies around the world, to give Ukraine the support it needs for as long as it takes to repel the Russian invasion.”

01:35 PM GMTPolish farmers block Ukrainian border

Polish farmers have blocked border crossings with Ukraine, kicking off a month-long general strike to protest against EU policies and a lack of government action to protect their livelihoods.

Farmers in France, Belgium, Portugal, Greece, Spain and Germany have been protesting against constraints placed on them by EU measures to tackle climate change, as well as rising costs and what they say is unfair competition from abroad.

Polish farmers have been particularly vocal about the impact of cheap food imports from neighbouring Ukraine.

Around 100 farmers and 50 cars blocked the approach to Medyka border crossing, halting traffic for all vehicles, a Ukrainian border force spokesman said on television.

Polish media said there were over 250 blockades across the country, with convoys of tractors clogging roads and holding banners with slogans such as: “Without us, you will be hungry, naked and sober”.

01:28 PM GMTNorway proposes delivering more NASAMS to Ukraine

Norway has proposed providing further NASAMS – short to medium range air defence systems – to Ukraine.

The delivery would comprise 10 launch units and four fire control centres of the air defence system, and it comes at a time in the war when bombardments from Russian aerial drones and missiles have become a near daily occurrence.

“The Norwegian NASAMs system saves Ukrainian lives and prevent the destruction of buildings and infrastructure,” said Bjørn Arild Gram, the Norwegian Defense Minister. “The Russian missile and drone attacks are extensive and brutal, so air defense is absolutely decisive for Ukraine.”

12:43 PM GMTMoD suggests Russian negligence to blame for series of factory explosions

Russian negligence may be behind a spate of explosions at Russian military facilities, the Ministry of Defence reported.

Footage of an explosion at a central Russian missile factory in Udmurtia on February 7 claimed by Tass, a Russian news agency, to have been caused by “planned test” may in fact have been the result of mishandling explosives, the MoD said.

“There is a realistic possibility that the explosion is due to negligent handling and storing of highly volatile, combustible, and explosive materials,” it stated in its daily report, citing pressure on meeting output targets and staff  fatigue as potential causes.

“This is at least the fifth unexplained military industrial factory explosion in four months,” the report added, highlighting blasts at the Kamensky chemical plant in January, the Chelyabinsk tank factory in November and gunpowder and ammunition factories in Kotovsk and Solikamsk in November and October respectively.

12:28 PM GMTDischarged army chief named ‘Hero of Ukraine’

President Volodymyr Zelensky has named his former army chief a “Hero of Ukraine” in an apparent olive branch after the popular general was dismissed yesterday.

The title is Ukraine’s highest state award and is presented for “outstanding personal achievements in the protection of state sovereignty and the territorial integrity of Ukraine,” a decree posted on the president’s official website stated.

The same title was awarded to the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov.

The decision to confer the award on Mr Zaluzhny has been interpreted as a sign that President Zelensky’s team are trying to signal unity and respect for the former general after removing him as commander of the armed forces.

12:15 PM GMTNorth Korea welcomes Russian tourists amid suspicion over potential arms deal

A group of Russian tourists have touched down in Pyongyang, becoming the first foreigners to visit North Korea since it closed its borders during the pandemic.

The move comes as Moscow and Pyongyang bolster ties, with North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un making a rare overseas trip to meet President Vladimir Putin in the Russian Far East on an armoured train last September.

South Korea and Washington have subsequently claimed the North has shipped weapons to Moscow for use in Ukraine, in violation of UN sanctions, while evidence has emerged in recent days of their use on the battle field, Ukrainian officials have claimed.

A total of 97 Russians are expected to join the four-day trip, with a visit to the capital and skiing on the agenda.

12:03 PM GMTRussia considers raising age limit for military service above life expectancy

Russia has proposed raising its upper age limit for military service above the country’s average life expectancy.

Russia’s defence ministry is proposing to increase the upper age limit for military service by contract soldiers and mobilised men to 65. This is a year older than the average life expectancy for men in Russia of 64, according to World Bank data.

The new law, which is in its draft stage, also proposed raising the maximum age of senior officers in the army to 70 years old.

11:50 AM GMTKremlin refuses to say if Berlin park hitman was Russian agent

Moscow refused to say whether an assassin convicted in Berlin four years ago was a Russian agent after Vladimir Putin hinted that he wanted him freed in a prisoner exchange.

In an interview with Tucker Carlson, the former Fox News presenter, that aired yesterday evening, Putin alluded to the case of Vadim Krasikov – a hitman who killed a former Chechan fighter in Berlin in 2018 – as a potential pawn in negotiations to free Evan Gershkovich, a US journalist.

Mr Krasikov is serving a life sentence in Germany for the killing of separatist commander Zelimkhan Khangoshvili in a Berlin park, which German authorities say was ordered by Russian intelligence services.

Asked whether Krasikov was an FSB agent, Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesman, said: “I will leave that question without an answer.”

See post at 8.51am for more details.

11:41 AM GMTUkraine claims responsibility for overnight drone strikes on Russian oil refineries

Ukraine fired drones at two separate Russian oil refineries overnight Friday, sparking at least one large fire, a source in Kyiv’s security services told AFP.

Ukrainian drones hit two refineries in Russia’s southern Krasnodar region at once, “not only the Ilsky refinery, but also the Afipsky refinery,” the source said.

“These refineries are legitimate targets. Not only do they work for defence and provide fuel for Russian troops, but they are also important for the Russian economy,” the source added.

See post at 9.06am for more details.

11:16 AM GMTUkraine’s new army chief says military must ‘change its methods’ to succeed

Oleksandr Syrskyi (right) with President Zelensky at Ukraine’s army command post in Kupiansk in November 2023 – Getty Images/AFP

Ukraine must ‘change its methods’ in order to win the war, says its newly appointed army chief.

Oleksandr Syrsky outlined his plans for the military in a post on Telegram, calling for the introduction of new technology in order to tilt the war in Ukraine’s favour.

“Only changes and continuous improvement in the means and methods of warfare will allow us to succeed on this path,” Syrsky said in his first public comments since taking up the post.

Despite successes on the battlefield, Syrsky is not a national icon like his predecessor, Valery Zaluzhny, and he has earned a reputation for being indifferent to military casualties.

He appeared to address this characterisation in his statement, saying: “The lives and well-being of our servicemen have always been and remain the main asset of the Ukrainian army.”

11:01 AM GMTSacked Ukrainian army chief ‘blamed for failed counter-offensive’

Valerii Zaluzhny was yesterday replaced as Ukraine’s army chief – Getty Images/Alexey Furman

US military chiefs “blamed” General Valery Zaluzhny’s refusal to follow its advice for Ukraine’s failed counter-offensive, it has been reported.

Gen Zaluzhny was sacked by Volodymyr Zelensky as the nation’s commander-in-chief on Thursday, a move analysts said was motivated by lack of progress on the battlefield.

US and British generals held table-top exercises with Kyiv’s former military chief, advising that he utilised all of the newly-acquired Western tanks and armoured vehicles in a single push towards the Sea of Azov.

Instead, the Ukrainians opted to conduct their much-vaunted counter-offensive on three separate axes, becoming bogged down in vast minefields and ultimately failing to reach their objectives.

“It became pretty clear over the course of the offensive that Ukrainians just weren’t interested in US advice, and they generally concluded that we have nothing to offer them advise wise,” a White House adviser told the Politico news website.

The blame, the adviser added, for this fell squarely on Gen Zaluzhny’s shoulders.

The four-star general was replaced on Thursday by Gen Oleksandr Syrsky, the former commander of Ukraine’s ground forces and a close ally of President Zelensky.

10:54 AM GMTEurope’s arms production in ‘deep s***’

Europe’s arms production is in ‘deep s***,’ says Belgian ex-general.

It will take years for the EU to develop the arms and ammunition production capacity required to adequately arm Ukraine and re-equip its national forces, Marc Thys, Belgium’s former deputy chief of defence, told Politico.

“It’s not a joke, we’re in deep s***,” he said. “Especially in Belgium, but we’re not the only ones.”

“Ammunition is a symptom of a cultural problem within Europe,” said Mr Thys, highlighting reliance on the US security umbrella as an excuse for decades of underinvestment in the bloc’s own production capacity.

“There’s a lot of wishful thing … People underestimate the time needed to realize projects,” said Thys. “The industrial fabric in Europe isn’t strong enough to support Ukraine.”

10:16 AM GMTUkraine facing critical ammunition shortage as Western aid falls short

Ukraine is facing a critical ammunition shortage after efforts to secure a fresh US funding package failed and Europe missed its targets for arms production, a senior US military official said.

Senate Republicans on Wednesday voted against a bill to provide a crucial $60 billion of aid to Ukraine, leaving American shipments effectively on hold.

The congressional delay risked creating an “air bubble” or “gap in the hose” of supplies to Kyiv, a senior US military official told the Financial Times.

“This is really as grave as we have been portraying it… this is a very grim scenario,” a defence official said.

“It is a desperate situation on the front lines for the Ukrainians, far worse than they are letting on,” added a senior Nato diplomat.

Hopes remain that there could be a final breakthrough to secure US aid after the Senate yesterday voted to advance a debate over a separate bill to send $60bn in additional funds to Ukraine.

Josep Borrell, The EU chief diplomat yesterday gave a speech in Warsaw calling on European countries to support Ukraine “not ‘for as long as it takes’ but for ‘whatever it takes.’”

10:04 AM GMTKyiv mayor urges Zelensky to address Ukraine public over decision to sack top general

Mayor of Kyiv Vitali Klitschko has called on Zelensky to explain his decision to sack his army chief – Getty Images/Andriy Zhyhaylo

Voldomyr Zelensky must explain his decision to replace Ukraine’s top general to the public, Vitali Klitschko, the mayor of Kyiv, has urged.

President Zelensky yesterday dismissed Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine’s top general, and replaced him with Oleksandr Syrskyi, bringing to an end weeks of speculation over a government and military reshuffle.

Responding to the change, Mr Klitschko wrote a cryptic message on Telegram in which he called on the government to explain the move to the public in order to ensure Ukraine remains united at this critical stage in the war.

Mr Klitschko previously warned that the dismissal of Zaluzhnyi could have damaging consequences for Ukrainian society, stating that the general was the reason citizens “truly trust the armed forces”. He has also criticised Zelensky over what he described as the president’s authoritarian tendencies, as well as his “mistakes” at the start of Russia’s invasion in 2022.

09:39 AM GMTUkraine and Russia exchange 200 prisoners

A group of Russian servicemen arrive after a prisoners of war (POW) exchange, at Chkalovsky military airport – EPA

Both Ukraine and Russia said they have swapped 100 prisoners of war each overnight, the first exchange between the warring sides since Moscow accused Kyiv of downing a plane carrying captured Ukrainian soldiers last month.

Ukraine returns its people and will make every effort to continue prisoner exchanges. So that our people can come back home,” President Volodymyr Zelensky posted on Twitter.

The United Arab Emirates claimed to have brokered the deal, with the country’s foreign ministry stating that it will continue to support efforts to find a peaceful solution to the war in Ukraine, Arab News reports.

09:25 AM GMTKremlin ‘grateful’ for influx of Putin interview requests from Western Media

Western media outlets have lodged “several dozen” requests for interviews with Vladimir Putin in recent days, Russian news agency Tass reported.

The glut of requests follows Tucker Carlson’s comments that no Western journalists has “bothered” to interview Putin ahead of the former Fox News presenter’s interview with the president which aired yesterday.

The Kremlin later contradicted Mr Carlson’s claims, stating that in fact, “many” foreign news outlets had requested interviews with the Russian leader.

“The Kremlin is grateful to Western media for new requests for interviews with Putin and will keep them in mind for the future,” Tass reported.

09:13 AM GMTUkraine downs 10 out of 16 Russian drone strikes

Russia launched 16 drones at Ukraine overnight with air defences destroying 10 of them, the Ukrainian military said on Friday.

Drones damaged “exclusively civilian infrastructure” in the eastern Kharkiv region, injuring a security guard and setting fire to buildings and cars, a regional military official posted on Telegram.

Ukraine’s air force said Russia fired the Iranian-made Shahed drones from bases in the annexed Crimean peninsula and the western Kursk region.

“As a result of combat operations, 10 Shaheds were destroyed in Mykolaiv, Kherson and Kharkiv regions,” it said in a statement.

Ukrainian media reports of the strikes show footage of a building going up in flames.

09:06 AM GMTRussia and Ukraine trade 35 drone strikes overnight

Russia and Ukraine fired a total 35 drones at each other overnight, the two countries’ militaries said Friday, as both sides wage nightly attempts to strike targets behind the static frontline.

Russia’s military shot down 19 Ukrainian drones over  the Black Sea and four regions of the country, the defence ministry said, while Ukraine said it shot down 10 of 16 drones Russia fired.

Russia’s defence ministry said its air defences had intercepted and destroyed drones in the regions of Kursk, Bryansk, Oryol, Krasnodar and over the Black Sea.

In Krasnodar, rescue services said a fire erupted overnight at an oil refinery in Ilsky, without specifying if the blaze was caused by the drone attack. Footage of the alleged blaze emerged online, but its origin cannot be verified.

08:51 AM GMTPutin hints at swapping jailed US journalist for Russian assassin

Vladimir Putin said he believed “an agreement can be reached” to free imprisoned US journalist Evan Gershkovich, suggesting he could be swapped for a Russian assassin serving a life sentence in Germany.

Putin compared Gershkovich’s imprisonment in Moscow to “a person serving a sentence in an allied country of the US”, a likely reference to Vadim Krasikov.

Mr Krasikov killed a former Chechen rebel Zelimkhan Khangoshvili in Berlin’s Tiergarten park in 2019, and US officials have said the Kremlin has previously raised his case in prisoner swap negotiations.

A Wall Street Journal reporter, Mr Gershkovich was arrested in March last year and charged with espionage by Russian officials.

Putin’s comments came in an interview with  Tucker Carlson, the former Fox News presenter, who became the first Western media representative to interview Mr Putin since the invasion of Ukraine.

08:42 AM GMT‘In Russia, you don’t interview the president. The president interviews you’

The rule in Russia is the more important you are, the bigger your room – so Vlad the Bad spoke to Tucker Carlson in a preposterously big Kremlin hall, writes Tim Stanley.

The two men – both plastered in bronzer and crammed into tiny, camp chairs – were dwarfed by architecture, history and events spun wildly out of control. For context: the video Carlson posted before this one featured tips for men on the best make of wig.

“Why did you invade Ukraine?” Tucker asked in so many words.

“I will take only 30 seconds or one minute [to give] you a little historical background,” said Putin… and 30 minutes later was still talking about Genghis Khan, Stalin and the conversion of Prince Vladimir in 988. If Carlson looked out of his depth, the President of Russia appeared to be out of his tiny little mind.

Read Tim’s full sketch here.

08:39 AM GMTPutin threatens World War Three if US deploys troops in Ukraine

Vladimir Putin has threatened the United States with a global war that will “bring humanity to the brink” if it deploys troops to Ukraine, Rozina Sabur reports.

The Russian president appealed to the US to stop the fighting in Ukraine and push for peace, telling US TV personality Tucker Carlson: “We have to look for a way out of this situation.”

Speaking in his first interview with a Western media figure since invading Ukraine in February 2022, Putin appeared to signal for the first time that Washington and Moscow were involved in back-channel peace talks on the war.

“Certain contacts are being maintained,” Putin told Carlson, but declined to go into further detail.

Read Rozina’s full story here.

08:36 AM GMTZelensky’s reshuffle must secure three key goals to truly help Ukraine

Volodymyr Zelensky and Gen Oleksandr Syrsky, right, during their visit to the front-line city of Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region in November 2023 – AP/Efrem Lukatsky

National leaders often fall out with their military chiefs in times of war, but that does not always lead to a dismissal, writes Dominic Nicholls

In 2011, after a perceived blurring of the military and political agendas during the Libya crisis, then prime minister David Cameron slapped down General Sir David Richards, his chief of the defence staff, with the admonishment: “You do the fighting, I’ll do the talking”.

Richards survived. General Valery Zaluzhny, the head of Ukraine’s armed forces until Thursday night, has not, following a similarly bruising encounter with his country’s political leader.

Forget guns and ammunition, at the highest levels of warfare trust is the most vital commodity.

So it is in Ukraine right now.

Read the full story here.

08:33 AM GMTIn case you missed it yesterday

Ukraine’s army chief Valery Zaluzhny has been sacked after weeks of frenzied speculation over his future.

President Zelensky announced the decision on social media, thanking the general for his two years of service.

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