Roundtable: Our March Madness projections for UCLA, USC and others
March Madness #MarchMadness
Welcome to March, college basketball fans.
Los Angeles Times college hoops experts Ben Bolch, Ryan Kartje and J. Brady McCollough are ready to answer key questions about UCLA, USC and more as the Madness begins.
What is the biggest obstacle UCLA must overcome to reach the Final Four?
Bolch: Like every year, it’s going to be about matchups. Even with their lockdown defense, the Bruins are most susceptible to being beaten by teams with length and athleticism. UCLA also can’t go into one of its six-minute lulls on offense or allow the other team to dictate the energy with a lifeless first half. Those are real issues the Bruins can’t seem to overcome.
Freshmen Amari Bailey and Adem Bona must make some meaningful contributions to supplement the veteran core that’s been to a Final Four. Bona has to stay out of foul trouble because his absence means the Bruins are essentially going four-on-five on offense with one of the backup bigs. Bailey needs to start knocking down his jumper more consistently and show a better ability to finish around the rim.
Perhaps most important, the Bruins must continue their run of making the final minutes winning time.
Kartje: Bailey’s reemergence feels critical. UCLA needs as many options as possible on offense, where, as Ben referenced, it has been known to fall into lengthy lulls. That’s what happened the last time UCLA lost, as its offense went completely ice cold in the second half against USC. This is not exactly a stellar shooting team to start with. If it can count on a freshman like Bailey to knock down big shots, along with its usual cast of veteran characters, the Bruins could definitely go the distance.
McCollough: If the Bruins run into an opponent with size and depth on the inside, they could be in trouble. All it will take is for Bona to get into foul trouble and suddenly UCLA is playing undermanned in the post. Jaime Jaquez Jr. has shown he can play as a small-ball big in spurts, but that’s asking a lot even for him. The good news for Mick Cronin’s team is that Jaquez and Tyger Campbell have seen it all, and they will have the veteran instinct and know-how to react on the fly to whatever happens in the throes of the tournament.
What does USC have to do to reach the tournament and extend its recent run of March success?
Kartje: If it can take care of business this week against Arizona and Arizona State, USC should clinch its third consecutive NCAA tournament bid. Barring a collapse in both games and an early exit next week in Vegas, the Trojans should enter March as one of its more dangerous sleepers.
How dangerous depends on how well USC continues to shoot from the perimeter. The Trojans have been scorchingly hot from deep in their past four games, knocking down 44 of their last 90 attempts (49%). And while that’s almost certainly unsustainable — the best 3-point shooting team in America, Colgate, is shooting 40% — USC is a totally different team when it’s hitting from deep. Once it finally cools off, USC will also need to be better on the boards, where, percentage-wise, it’s likely to rank among the worst teams in the tournament.
Bolch: Everybody knows Drew Peterson and Boogie Ellis can get hot and win a game. But they also have a tendency to disappear at times, leading to some of the Trojans’ head-scratching losses. For USC to advance to the second weekend of the tournament, both players are going to have to be reliably good. If Vincent Iwuchukwu can continue his upward trajectory since making his midseason debut, the Trojans will be a tough out.
McCollough: At this point, it would take a collapse at Galen Center for USC to miss out on the NCAA tournament. The Trojans appear to enter this weekend’s crucial homestand on the right side of the bubble, and they have a great shot to play their way out of the Dayton play-in games if they take care of business against Arizona and Arizona State. Win both, and they’re set to dance. Win one, and I still think they are in unless they lose a bad one in Vegas. Lose both, and they’ll have work to do in Vegas to punch their ticket.
USC takes a lot of jokes for the attendance at Galen, but when it comes down to it, Andy Enfield’s team has won a lot of big games there during their recent stretch. Do it again this weekend, and the Trojans will enter the tournament stage of the season with a ton of confidence and — thanks to the last few years — an actual pedigree to perform this time of year.
Who should win Pac-12 player of the year — UCLA’s Jaime Jaquez Jr. or Arizona’s Azuolas Tubelis?
McCollough: Tubelis, for as good as he is, has disappeared in some games down the stretch, which is something that Jaquez can’t afford to do for UCLA — and has not done. The Bruins depend on him for their life force, and he delivers every time, regardless of the circumstances. With UCLA clinching the outright league crown for the first time in a decade, this really isn’t a debate at this point.
Bolch: It’s no contest. Jaquez takes home the honors based on his February frenzy of points and rebounds, not to mention an impact on defense that Tubelis can’t match. Tubelis had to be subbed out at the end of the Wildcats’ loss to Arizona State because he was a liability on defense. Tubelis might finish with more points and rebounds than Jaquez, but his production has tailed off like the team he plays for, Arizona now fighting USC for second place in the Pac-12.
Kartje: Tubelis is an excellent player, especially offensively, but Jaquez has been absolutely unreal over the past month. He’s averaging 20 points and 10 rebounds per game in February, and, unsurprisingly, UCLA has won all eight of its games during that stretch. Throw in the fact that Jaquez is far and away the superior defensive player, and there’s no question who should get the conference’s top honors.
Is Mick Cronin right … does the Pac-12 tournament matter?
Bolch: Yes … and no. UCLA probably needs to win the thing to get a No. 1 seed or make sure it’s No. 2 in the West, but if the Bruins are happy with a No. 2 seed regardless of region, then the results won’t matter (barring a quarterfinal flop). Otherwise, Cronin is right, it’s all pretty meaningless. His teams have lost the first game in a conference tournament and made the Final Four (in 2021) and won a conference tournament and lost in the first round of the NCAA tournament (in 2019, at Cincinnati).
Kartje: Depends on what you count as meaningful, I suppose. Sure, to Cronin’s point, the actual results and momentum of the conference tournament may not carry over into March Madness. But UCLA also won’t earn a top seed without winning the Pac-12 tournament, which, call me crazy … seems kind of important?
For USC, next week’s results could prove pretty crucial. A sudden quarterfinal exit could make Selection Sunday pretty uncomfortable. Regardless, the Trojans would probably rather avoid a detour trip to Dayton if they’re one of the last teams in. A win or two at the Pac-12 tournament should eliminate that option, leaving them in the eight to 10 range for seeding.
McCollough: Of course it matters. A chance to hang a banner is a chance to hang a banner. Sure, the Bruins have the regular-season title, but backing that up sends a message that UCLA is unquestionably the best of the west — just a year shy of the Bruins playing their last games as a Pac-12 member. It may not matter what happens on that Saturday night in Vegas to the NCAA selection committee, but the Bruins shouldn’t be casual about the prospect of Arizona or USC getting the last laugh in Vegas.
Who are the top teams to watch during the NCAA tournament and is this the most parity we’ve seen entering it in years?
McCollough: It’s pretty wild to see North Carolina, the preseason No. 1 team in the country, listed among the first four teams out in brackets as the calendar turns to March. Kentucky has made a late push back to the top half of the bracket, but the Wildcats are not among the favorites to win it all either. Duke appears far from dangerous in year one under Jon Scheyer, too. Defending national champion Kansas and UCLA are the only bluebloods carrying their weight, as Houston, Purdue and Alabama are predicted to be No. 1 seeds. For some reason, that seems to make people think this is a down year for the sport, but, basically, that line of thinking just shows how much people really care about seeing the legendary programs in the games that matter. Fans may think they want parity, a scenario where surprising teams can win the championship, but the TV ratings routinely say otherwise.
I’m interested in seeing if Purdue can get over the hump and make its first Final Four. My gut, based on recent results, is that this will be another disappointing Boiler flameout. The Brandon Miller drama is likely to engulf Alabama’s season. Houston has a ton of pressure with the Final Four coming to its city, and the Cougars’ offense is capable of throwing up a real dud on any given night.
It’s going to be one of those years when the matchups tell the tale. I can’t wait to get my hands on that bracket!
Bolch: Beyond the obvious top seeds, I think TCU could make an extended run given Mike Miles Jr.’s return from injury, and Marquette has become scary good in coach Shaka Smart’s second season. I wouldn’t advise anyone betting on Alabama to go all the way given the Brandon Miller brouhaha that will follow the team wherever it goes, and I’m expecting slumping Purdue to go down relatively early even if the selection committee continues to believe the Boilermakers should be a No. 1 seed (they shouldn’t).
The feel-good story of the tournament could be Northwestern in only its second appearance. Unlike in their 2017 debut, these Wildcats have the talent to win more than one game.
Kartje: Don’t be surprised if we see several middling seeds still alive deep in this tournament. Connecticut has the firepower and the prowess on the glass to make some noise in March. Indiana and Maryland are two Big Ten teams peaking at the right time with the potential for deep runs. And I never want to mess with Gonzaga this time of year. Especially after seeing it handle St. Mary’s, another pesky contender, on Saturday.
McCollough: Gonzaga tough in the tournament? I don’t know. The Bulldogs have blown a lot of No. 1 seeds in recent years. I will be fascinated to see if having a lower seed will help them play at a higher level, with more of their natural underdog energy of the past.
Who will win the Pac-12 tournament and who will win the national title?
Bolch: I’m going to go with a twist and predict that USC gets on a roll and wins the Pac-12 tournament, knocking off both Arizona and UCLA along the way. As for the national title, I’m going to say elite defense prevails and Houston comes away with the championship 40 years after Hakeem Olajuwon failed to box out Lorenzo Charles.
Kartje: No need to overthink how this will play out in the Pac-12. UCLA has proven itself time and time again to be the top team in the conference, and while USC got the best of the Bruins in their last meeting, I don’t see the Trojans taking them down again, this time in the midst of another lengthy win streak.
As for the Big Dance … well, that’s a total crapshoot. I struggle to remember the last time a tournament field has felt this wide open. Balance is always critical come Tourney time, and only one team ranks inside the Top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. That’s Houston. Looks like I’m joining Ben on the Cougs’ bandwagon. But don’t be surprised if a lower seed comes out of nowhere to win it this year.
McCollough: Arizona fans are going to take over Las Vegas, and, since Mick Cronin doesn’t seem to think the tournament is that important, his players may be saving their edge for the weekend after. I like the Wildcats to win it and guarantee themselves that No. 2 seed.
With no bracket to go off, I will go with Baylor as a team that I’m going to lean into. The Bears’ guards are relentless and any or all of them can go off anytime. They also seem to be coming together at the right moment of the season. Further down, I’m intrigued by Miami. The Hurricanes were one win away from the Final Four last year, and, like Baylor, their guard play is tremendous. Plus, do-everything big man Norchad Omier is a beast on the glass.
This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.