Rosehill Gardens Saturday: Preview and tips

We are back at Rosehill again this Saturday. The rail is out three metres the entire circuit. Mostly clear skies are forecast for the rest of the week so we should get some good improvement from the current soft 6 rating. Below is my take on the card.

Race 1. TAB Highway Handicap (1200m)Luminoso looked enormous value opening at 20/1 with most bookies. Plenty of punters have been straight onto that and he is currently shorter. Forgive last start when three wide without cover at the back of the field. Prior to that he knocked off Osamu, who has been stakes placed previously. Those two put a couple lengths on the rest of the field. The start before that Luminoso was under a length off a colt called Green Flash (huge gap back to third), who is running as second favourite in a much better race than this later in the day.

These form lines look above a Highway grade and he’s drawn for a very soft run from gate 3.

Patino Ruby looked impressive in her first prep over 1000m and 900m. If she can take that form up to 1200m first up here, she will be hard to beat. She jumps from barrier 9, but should get across to take up the running given there isn’t a huge amount of speed underneath her.

Bet: Luminoso win $10 (best value)

Race 2. Rosehill Bowling Club Handicap (1300m)Socialist maps very kindly from barrier 2. Two starts back he was beaten a nose by Xtremetime, who then went on to win here last Saturday. Socialist then went on to win pretty comfortably last start. He led from start to finish, and the jockey didn’t have to do a heap of riding to keep him in front down the straight. That was on a heavy track so he will just need to bring that back to a good surface Saturday and he should be very hard to beat.

Overmann has been good in his three starts to date against decent opposition. He was beaten a half-length last start by Astrologer, with four lengths back to third. Tommy Berry takes the ride from barrier 4, which puts him in a good position to break the maiden.

Greater Harlem ran second to Overpass on debut, only going down to that handy horse by 1.3 lengths. On that he could certainly measure up here, though the outside gate will make it a tough assignment for Collett.

Bet: Socialist win $4.20 (best bet)

Race 3. Cellarbrations Handicap (1500m)Kobe Rocks may have a bit of class about him. He ran midfield in a Group 2 in New Zealand before coming to Australia. Aegon won that race and Kobe Rocks was far from disgraced. First up from a spell he was caught wide the trip at the back of the field so I’m happy to put a line through that. Last start he finished second after leading throughout. A horse called Lennon ran third there, who beat Exoboom last preparation.

Ruby Tuesday went far too hard in front last start and subsequently tailed off to finish fifth in a BM78. She is likely to take up the lead again here. If she can pace herself a little better, then a much-improved run is likely. King takes the reins and generally judges the pace very well on a leader.

Mensa Missile and Wairere Falls are also among the chances.

Bet: Kobe Rocks win $6

Race 4. ACY Securities Handicap (1200m)Blondeau is the obvious pick in this race. He stays at 1200m here, which looks a good option given the electric turn of foot he displayed to blow his rivals away first up. He won by 3.2 lengths there and would only have to translate that run on a soft 7 to an improved surface here to win again. His second up record is good with two wins from three starts.

Smart Image was just okay first up in a good form race, with Count De Rupee making his rivals look second rate the start following. He boasts a pretty good strike rate with three wins from seven starts and I’m expecting a much better performance here to figure in the placings.

Quiet Riot can also improve from his last start result where he finished seven lengths off Blondeau, after being caught wide without cover the trip. A good surface and a kinder run could see him bridge that gap to some degree.

Bet: Blondeau Win $2 (next best)

Race 5. Precise Air Handicap (1200m)Lunar tramp goes around at a big price Saturday and I think she can give a sight providing she gets some luck in the straight. She comes back to this BM78 after two Group 3 runs (F and M grade), so she can definitely improve from the class drop. She was okay last start running between horses down the straight. Earlier in her preparation she beat Nicci’s Fling, who ran well in the Inglis Guineas last week. She also beat home Najmah, who has since ran ok in some quality races in Sydney and Melbourne in the Autumn.

Exotic Ruby was great first up splitting Stellar Pauline and April Rain. She draws well here and can improve now onto an improved surface.

Redoute’s Image is an interesting runner here for Kris Lees. She ran well without winning last preparation behind some quality horses, including Forbidden Love and Stolen Jade. She wasn’t disgraced when seventh in a Group 2 behind Dame Giselle and Hungry Heart in the Spring. She certainly isn’t hopeless first up and could run a cheeky race at big odds here.

Turnstyle was awesome last start leading at a strong clip. She is yet to win at the 1200m though so I am taking her on.

Bet: 30 per cent/40 per cent/30 per cent across Lunar Tramp $34, Exotic Ruby $8.50 and Redoute’s Image $17

Race 6. De Bortoli Wines Handicap (2000m)Green Flash has been building nicely this preparation. Last start he was second to Grace and Harmony, who won well subsequently to become the favourite for the Queensland oaks. That form link looks good for this race. He was a bit slow to get to top gear in that race, which left him trying to make his run between horses. The rise to 2000m looks ideal now and Tommy Berry on from a decent gate (9) are always ticks.

Outlook is the other one I was interested in here. She was finishing strongly last start, just missing against Point Counterpoint, who also runs in this race. I think she will relish the extra distance. She is also an emergency in Queensland, so I’m not sure if she will start here or not.

There are a number of other chances including Real Peace and Point Counterpoint.

Bet: Green Flash win $5.50.

I love a futures bet so I have also had a small bet on Outlook for the Queensland Oaks currently at 100/1.

Race 7. Lord Mayors Cup (2000m)Parry Sound was excellent last start in a race that rates okay. He did not have the easiest run, with a mid-race move that took him onto the shoulder of the leader. He took over early in the straight and was left a sitting shot after the sustained run. He fought hard to go down by only 0.3 lengths there. From barrier 3 he gets a very soft run and can sit handy enough given there is not much speed outside Wu Gok and Knights Order.

Grey Lion has been building nicely in his first two runs back. He should be ready now third up and gets 2.5 kg off Polly Grey from their last meeting. He doesn’t win out of turn is the knock.

Polly Grey is the class in the race, but she has the weight to show for it. It is likely that she will be back onto a Good surface on Saturday, which is a small query. She was two lengths behind Zaaki and Paths of Glory two starts back and then followed that with a win in the Gosford Cup. That is nice form relative to many of her opponents in this.

Bet: Parry Sound win (but I’d prefer to wait and see if I can get a better price on the day than the current $3.80 quote)

Race 8. XXXX Handicap (1500m)Opacity was luckless last start, not really tested in the straight. His second up record is excellent with two wins and a third from three goes, and he is now up to his right trip. I think he can run a big race at double figure odds. He has drawn wide but goes back anyway so there is a fair chance Adkins can find some cover from the draw.

Ellsberg is the obvious horse here on form. The three length win over Private Eye reads extremely well for this, given Private Eye then franked that with a nice win in the Group 2 Queensland Guineas. He does however seem a bit too reliant on very specific conditions to show his best. That is – to lead on his terms and rail into the straight. I’m not sure he will sizethat in this size field with some speed drawn out however.

Kirwan’s Lane can also run well from a cushy draw and back down a bit in the weights.

Bet: Each way 25 per cent/7 5per cent at $12/$3.70

Race 9. Ranvet Handicap (1800m)The get out stakes is a tricky race to assess a six his stage with 6 emergencies. I do like Travest’s form, with Easy Campese franking that latest win since. It was a long-sustained run after being caught wide, so I think the distance rise is no issue for the Tavistock gelding. The barrier could be an issue, and currently as an emergency he may not get a start anyway.

Bet: None at this stage. Waiting to reassess the field after six horses come out of it.