Roman ‘Chocolatito’ Gonzalez vs. Juan Francisco Estrada II fight prediction, card, start time, odds, stream

In a rematch nine years in the making, two of the top pound-for-pound fighters in boxing over the last decade will square off on Saturday to unify world titles at 115 pounds. 

Fresh off a resurgent return to prominence over the past year, Nicaraguan legend Roman “Chocolatito” Gonzalez (50-2, 41 KOs) will defend his WBA super flyweight title against WBC champion Juan Francisco Estrada (41-3, 28 KOs) inside American Airlines Center in Dallas (8 p.m. ET, DAZN). 

The fight offers redemption for the 30-year-old Estrada, a native of Mexico, who has joined hard-core boxing fans in clamoring for a rematch ever since he dropped a thrilling unanimous decision to Gonzalez in 2012. 

The fight was contested at 108 pounds as Gonzalez, a decorated four-division champion, made the fifth and final defense of his WBA title before continuing his pursuit up in weight. It also came during a time when “Chocolatito” was unstoppable, having finished eight of his previous nine opponents. 

Estrada kept up with Gonzalez’s hellacious pace like few other opponents were able to do at the time. More importantly, he withstood Gonzalez’s incredible punching power to go the distance in a fight that was much closer than the scorecards (118-110, 116-112, 116-112) might indicate.

While both fighters improved both their commercial platform and the critical respect they deserved on a global level within the sport in the ensuing years, the 33-year-old Gonzalez appeared as if his celebrated run had come to a disastrous end in 2017. 

Wearing the mythical title of pound-for-pound king entering a defense of his WBC super flyweight title against unheralded Srisaket Sor Rungvisai inside New York’s Madison Square Garden, “Chocolatito” ran into an absolute buzzsaw against a larger foe. 

Their first meeting was a bloody war that saw Sor Rungvisai come away with a disputed majority decision win. But the native of Thailand would leave no doubt in their rematch six months later at the The Forum in Inglewood, California, when he knocked Gonzalez out cold in a finish so violent that had many wondered if “Chocolatito” would ever fight again. 

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Estrada used the aftermath of Gonzalez’s fall from power to split a pair of fights in action-packed decisions against Sor Rungvisai that were both nominated for Fight of the Year honors. What proved to be unexpected during that time was how well Gonzalez began to rebuild himself in a very under-the-radar fashion. 

In February of 2020, Gonzalez returned to prominence in a dramatic way by stopping unbeaten Kal Yafai to reclaim a world title at 115 pounds before defending it eight months later and opening up the door for a much-anticipated second meeting with Estrada, who had captured Gonzalez’s former title when he edged Sor Rungvisai in their 2019 rematch. 

“In my career I only have three defeats, I have avenged two of them and the only one I am missing is Roman,” Estrada said. “I feel capable of beating him because I already fought with him, I know his weaknesses, so we are focused on winning convincingly. We are bringing in a strategy to come out with everything, to go for the intelligent knockout.

“The first time we faced each other, I entered the ring too weak, because it was difficult for me to make 108-pounds, but I ripped my heart out to keep up the pace and have a good fight.”

Gonzalez has said he is hoping a second victory over Estrada will help him equal his Hall of Fame countryman and mentor, the late Alexis Arguello, in the history books and is confident entering the rematch.

“I already know how [Estrada] boxes, everything is going to be seen from the moment the bell rings,” Gonzalez said. “It is really going to be a very tough fight and you are going to see that when the fight happens. When you prepare the best you can physically and mentally, you do things well at the moment of the fight. Everything will be seen at the moment of the fight. 

“We will fight with great intelligence, throwing punches. The important thing is to be in good condition, that is what will help me at the time of the fight. I am the type of opponent who doesn’t like to talk a lot, I like to wait until the moment of the fight.”

This card is loaded up with intriguing bouts. Look no further than the co-main event where we get a rematch for the undisputed women’s welterweight titles as Cecilia Braekhus takes on champion Jenna McCaskill. Braekhus, 39, saw her incredible 36-fight win streak snapped by McCaskill last August as the challenger scored a majority decision to claim all the belts at 147 pounds. Now, Braekhus gets the chance to right that wrong and regain her status as one of the baddest women on the planet.

The first title bout on the card sees WBA junior flyweight champion Hiroto Kyoguchi put his title on the line against Axel Aragon Vega. Kyoguchi boasts an undefeated record at 14-0 with nine knockouts. The 27-year-old has yet to fight in the Western Hemisphere, however, as he makes his debut against Vega. Kyoguchi has, however, faced a decent level of competition on his way to winning the 115-pound title. 

Fight card, odds

Odds via William Hill Sportsbook

Prediction 

Expect this to be an absolute war, mostly because the trio of Gonzalez, Estrada and Sor Rungvisai have now produced five instant classic fights between each other.

The biggest question entering the rematch is whether Gonzalez, already fighting in a division above his most optimal weight, can weather the pace and power of Estrada at this point in his career. Estrada is a slight favorite at most sports books and should be considered the more fresher fighter with much more to gain. 

Gonzalez will likely pick his spots early before settling in to a typically hectic pace in which he effortlessly switches stances by using beautiful footwork to unleash his patented combinations. But if he waits too long or is unable to hurt Estrada and give him a reason to not be the aggressor, it may prove difficult for Gonzalez to win a decision. 

Pick: Estrada via UD12