Rockies, Cardinals trade for Nolan Arenado remains a “real possibility”
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This much we know: The Rockies and Cardinals have engaged in talks about a possible trade for star third baseman Nolan Arenado. Those talks continued Friday and two sources said that while major hurdles remain, a deal remains a “real possibility.”
Arenado would seem to be a good fit for the Cardinals, who could use a powerful, right-handed bat in their lineup. But he would also cost them a lot of money. That money, and what the Rockies are demanding in return for Arenado, remain obstacles to getting a deal done.
Arenado has six years and $199 million left on his eight-year, $260 million contract. He also has a no-trade clause, as well as an opt-out clause he can exercise following the 2021 season. Arenado would almost certainly waive the no-trade clause to play for the tradition-rich Cardinals, but would he be willing to eliminate or push back the opt-out clause? That is another key to the deal.
The Rockies and Cardinals discussed a possible trade last year, but the sticking point was that the Cardinals didn’t feel they could handle the $35 million yearly salary Arenado was owed in 2020 (before the pandemic) or the $35 million he’s due in each of the next four seasons. The Rockies were also demanding a lot in return for Arenado.
Now, however, in the wake of lost revenues because of the pandemic, the Rockies appear interested in getting salary relief. In order for a deal to fly, however, the Rockies would almost certainly have to cover some of Arenado’s salary.
That might be accomplished by Colorado taking on some of the heftier Cardinals’ contract. Third baseman Matt Carpenter, for example, is owed $18.5 million this season and has an $18.5 million option for 2022 with a $2 million buyout. Outfielder Dexter Fowler, who began his career in Colorado, will make $14.5 million this season. The problem is, both players have a no-trade clause in their contracts.
Left-hander Andrew Miller ($12 million) and right-hander Carlos Martínez ($11.5 million) are the other St. Louis players that might be part of a trade package. The question is whether the Cardinals would be willing to part with either of those pitchers.
The Rockies are believed to be interested in two Cardinals prospects, in particular: third baseman Nolan Gorman and left-hander Matthew Liberatore. But, according to a source, St. Louis has shown reluctance to trade two of the top young players in their system.
In other words, it’s a complicated scenario.
John Mozeliak, Cardinals president of baseball operation, did not dismiss the possibility of a trade when given the chance Friday. During a Zoom session with Cardinals reporters, he addressed the question before it was asked, according to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, but not mentioning Arenado by name.
“There are a lot of rumors floating around the industry right now, and I imagine those things will probably continue,” he said. “There’s not a whole lot I can add to those other than recognize that they’re out there, and in terms of what we’re doing, where we’re going, clearly spring training is right around the corner.
“As I mentioned a while back, I thought January would look more like (a usual) December. You saw a lot more player movement. Certainly, some of the things you would have likely seen at the end of January will now roll in February. Still time to improve the club. Still time to look at things. So, we’re going to remain open-minded and see what other things we possibly could do.”
Mozeliak met with reporters to officially announce that the Cardinals had re-signed veteran right-hander Adam Wainwright to a one-year, $8 million contract.
“I’ve got a feeling there’s some goodness happening here,” Wainwright said. “That’s all I’m going to say. … I think there’s some things they might be thinking about or trying to pull off that will make people pretty happy. We’ll see.”
It was unclear whether Wainwright was hinting about the possibility of Arenado becoming a Cardinal or about the club reportedly re-signing veteran catcher Yadier Molina. Perhaps it was both.
While swapping out big contracts is difficult, it can be done. In 2017, the Marlins and Yankees worked out a deal for slugger Giancarlo Stanton, who had signed a 13-year, $325 million contract with Miami.
Stanton had 10 years and $295 million remaining on his contract but the Marlins were looking to dump salary. Ultimately, Miami agreed to take on the remaining two years and $22 million left on Starlin Castro’s deal and also received two prospects. Additionally, the Marlins provided $30 million in salary relief for the Yankees.
It should be noted that Joel Wolf is the agent for both Arenado and Stanton.
Whether or not a deal comes together remains to be seen, but the Cardinals and Rockies are closer to making a trade now than they were a year ago.