Rochdale byelection: Keir Starmer apologises after George Galloway wins but says he was right to disown Labour candidate – as it happened

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Experts play down suggestions Galloway’s victory in Rochdale has wider political significance

Academics and commentators like Prof Sir John Curtice (see 8.42am) and Lewis Goodall (see 6.33am) have made brave attempts this morning to draw out some wider political implications from the results of the Rochdale byelection. But amongst the commentatriat the consensus seems to be that that the main takeaway is that there are no wider lessons from the result – or at least none that are significant.

This is from Keiran Pedley from the polling firm Ipsos.

The reason it’s hard to find a read across for Galloway’s win in Rochdale to national politics is because there isn’t one.

This is from James Johnson, a former No 10 pollster who now runs JL Partners.

Reasons I don’t think the Galloway win has lasting effects

1️⃣ Unique set of candidates2️⃣ By-election voters are different to General Election voters3️⃣ Galloway has a highly personal vote, hard to replicate4️⃣ Muslim vote is highest in very safe Labour seats

This is from Sam Freedman from Prospect magazine.

A by-election where over 60% of the vote goes to (effective) independents tells us nothing about the general election or really anything at all beyond the specific contest. There will be takes nevertheless.

And this is from Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, who has written up his analysis of the significance of the result on a blog.

All by-election results need to be taken with a pinch of salt, but this one needs to be taken with a truckload. The immediate “what does this result mean?” questions are inevitable, but in my view the answer is very little. This by-election was bizarre beyond recognition; of the established parties, Labour and the Greens effectively disowned their candidates, the Liberal Democrats had their own local campaign controversy, the Reform candidate was a disgraced former Labour MP, and the Conservative candidate took a holiday midway through the campaign. All of these factors have contributed, to some extent, to Galloway winning and an inexperienced independent coming second …

On Labour, there are several questions to answer. The first, is that besides being a vocal voice in the House of Commons, what does Galloway’s victory actually mean for Labour? Personally, I don’t think Keir Starmer will be losing any sleep over this result. Indeed, all things considered, I don’t think Labour could have hoped for much from the result. Another question that will be posed will be “what would have happened if Labour selected a different candidate?” and I don’t think we can assume, based on these results, that a different Labour candidate who had been backed throughout the campaign would have just waltzed to an easy victory. A narrow Labour victory over Galloway, or even a defeat, with a different candidate, would have been far more humiliating than this one which Labour can effectively just write-off and move on from.

ShareGalloway’s ally Chris Williamson claims his victory will ‘send shockwaves through corridors of power’

George Galloway does not seem to be morning broadcast interviews this morning, but Chris Williamson, the deputy leader of Galloway’s Workers Party of Britain, was on the Today programme speaking on his behalf.

Williamson, a former Labour MP who left the party after being suspended over allegations of antisemitism, claimed Galloway’s win would “send shockwaves through the corridors of power”. He said Galloway would use his platform in the Commons to speak up for the Palestinian people “against the genocidal Israel regime”.

George Galloway is probably the best orator in the world.

He’s now got a place in the corridors of power in Westminster, where the government and the official Opposition are effectively facilitating the genocide in Gaza. And so he will be able to speak truth to power.

Not just in Rochdale. the whole country was watching this result and, indeed, people around the world were watching this result. And it will send shockwaves through the corridors of power and give a huge boost to those insurgent political parties and groupings and independents who are looking to provide a genuine alternative to the political class who have completely failed.

Chris Williamson Photograph: Jack Taylor/Getty ImagesShareConservatives and Labour both did very badly in ‘unique’ Rochdale byelection, says John Curtice

Prof Sir John Curtice, the leading psephologist, delivered his verdict on the significance of the Rochdale byelection on BBC Breakfast this morning. Asked if he agreed with George Galloway’s claim that both main parties had been “spanked” (see 6.33am), he said that he did – although he also stressed that it was a unusual contest and Keir Starmed remained “well on course to win a general election.

[This was] a unique contest contested by a candidate with a unique ability to appeal to the Muslim population in a town that also has a past record of voting on local issues.

Frankly, here is another poor Conservative performance. The Conservative vote down by 19 points – it’s the biggest drop in the Conservative vote in a Labour-held seat in a byelection in this parliament …

There is no sign here of the electoral gloom that hangs over the Conservative party is in any way dissipated by Sir Keir Starmer’s difficulties.

Of course, Mr Galloway does have a track record of doing well in constituencies with large Muslim populations, particularly at a time when there is particular concern amongst that community about events in the Middle East. In 2005, when he won Bethnal Green, it was the Iraq war. Now, it’s Sir Keir Starmer’s relatively, I emphasise relatively, uncritical reaction to Gaza that Galloway was firing at.

The truth is Labour’s vote was going to to down given that they disowned [their candidate]. But Labour’s vote literally collapsed. This is the biggest drop in Labour support in a post-war by election.

It does mean that Labour MPs who are representing constituencies with large Muslim populations who have been told that they may face candidates standing on a pro-Palestinian platform … will be looking to Sir Keir perhaps to toughen his stance on Israel in order to try to head that off …

Although the Labour party is well-insulated against a challenge in Muslim constituencies, because most of these seats that Labour represents have very large Labour majorities … although most Labour supporters don’t take a side in the current conflict in the Middle East, those who do, both Muslim and non-Muslim, are much more likely to support the Palestinian side than the Israeli side. That does raise a question for Sir Keir Starmer.

[Rochdale] is a constituency with a past record of voting for a local champion who expressed discontent in the town. Previously it was Cyril Smith, the former Liberal MP, now of course since disgraced. Now we’re seeing David Tully, this time an independent candidate, seemingly being more effective at expressing the discontent of people in Rochdale. So it isn’t just Mr Galloway who’s spanked both Mr Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer, it’s also Mr Tully as well.

Prof Sir John Curtice Photograph: BBC NewsShareLabour’s Ellie Reeves rejects suggestions party needs to change its policy on Gaza in response to Rochdale defeat

In her Sky News interview Ellie Reeves, Labour’s deputy national campaign coordinator, rejected suggestions that the party needed to change its stance on Gaza in response to the byelection defeat. She said:

We’ve set out our position on Gaza and that was adopted by the Commons just the other week. We’ve said there should be an immediate humanitarian ceasefire, that the loss of life has been intolerable, there must be no ground offensive in Rafah, aid has to be ramped up into the region, and, importantly, that we need to find a two-state solution. What shouldn’t just be sort of empty words by politicians, but a political reality rather than an aspiration. A Labour government would work tirelessly to make sure that happens.

Asked if Labour would toughen its policy, making it more pro-Palestinian, Reeves replied:

We’ve set out our position. We’ve called for that immediate humanitarian ceasefire. That’s in line with international partners in Australia, New Zealand and Canada. And it’s something that we’re pushing hard for.

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Updated at 03.20 EST

Ellie Reeves, Labour’s deputy national campaign coordinator, doing the media round on behalf of the party this morning. Appearing on Sky News this morning, she restated the apology to the people of Rochdale offered by the party this morning. (See 6.55am.)

Asked which candidate Labour wanted to win, she said that was a matter for voters in the constituency.

She said the party would now select a candidate for the general election able to unite people. Asked if she was confident Labour would win the seat back, she said the party was not complacent.

At the end of the interview Reeves was asked if she would like to offer her congratulations to George Galloway. She replied: “I think we’ll leave it there.”

Ellie Reeves Photograph: Sky NewsShare

On the Today programme this morning Allen Brett, a former Labour leader of Rochdale council, said he did not think the byelection “will have much effect nationally”. He would not say how he voted, it was not for George Galloway, he said. “I don’t think he’s for Rochdale, I think he’s for himself,” Brett said.

Brett said that he was impressed by the Dave Tully, the independent candidate who came second. “He’s a lovely fellow,” he said. He went on:

If he’d had a bit more professional advice to start with, I think he would have done even better. He did not even know that he could send everybody a leaflet via the post.

If Labour had had a proper candidate, Galloway would not have won, he said. He added:

I think locally the Labour party needs to ask why they rubbed this election.

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Nimo Omer has a good overview of the Rochdale byelection result in her First Edition briefing. Here is an extract.

The mood in the room was mixed when the results came in. There were a lot of Galloway supporters both inside the room and outside. “Dozens of people were there for hours, practising their chants on a freezing cold night in Rochdale,” Josh [Halliday, the Guardian’s north of England correspondent] says – a microcosm of the zeal and vigour of Galloway’s supporters.

The deep divisions laid bare over the course of the campaign were palpable too: “As [Galloway] prepared to stand on the victory podium, I heard mutterings from other campaigners of ‘terrorist sympathiser’, ‘the people of Rochdale are thick’ and ‘woe to Rochdale’,” Josh says.

Galloway made it clear what he thinks his victory means for the Labour party: more losses in the coming general election. He wants to create a movement in towns and cities with similar profiles to Rochdale: “I think this victory tonight will spread far,” he said, adding that the win “could be the beginning of something new, something big”.

Despite the stunning landslide on Galloway’s side, Josh says it is important to keep perspective: “You’ve got to take this with a pinch of salt. This is a byelection, it’s got a lower turnout than a general election and also Labour has not put up a fight for the last two and a half weeks of the campaign.” Were Labour to actually stand in a general election, the results would likely be far closer, he adds, though Galloway could still win again.

And here is the full article.

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Updated at 03.40 EST

Lewis Goodall from the News Agents podcast has posted a good thread on X about the significance of Galloway’s victory in Rochdale. It starts here.

What does the Galloway victory mean?

For the general election, very little. This was a unique by election and little is transferable. But it does change politics before the election and possibly tells us something about the shape of politics after it as well.

And here are some of his points.

More broadly, as Galloway’s election win will inspire and energise some on the left, it will incense the right. They will argue it proves some of their dark warnings about a rising radical Islamist party right. They’ll argue this is a portent of things to come.

But for now, this is mainly noise. In electoral terms, it won’t matter at all. Labour will probably win the seat back in the general. Most of his MPs loathe Galloway . Starmer will hope the ceasefire comes soon to take a little of the political pressure away.

There’s little doubt Starmer and Labour have been doing less well with Muslim voters than in the Corbyn years. That was true before Gaza and it’s become more pronounced since. Right now that isn’t a huge problem for Labour as their overall poll lead is so massive…

..but after an election and with the hard yards of governing begun, you can entirely see the circumstances where it becomes a problem. Poll lead vanishes and suddenly there are lots of seats in play like Rochdale where the Muslim vote isn’t massive but potentially pivotal.

The Tories meanwhile will at least be relieved that though their candidate performed abysmally Reform didn’t do much better. All eyes for them on Blackpool. But this is a story which is basically about Labour mismanagement. A complete car crash.

ShareMomentum says Labour’s defeat in Rochdale ‘self-inflicted loss’

Momentum, the leftwing Labour group, has described the party’s defeat in Rochdale as a “self-inflicted loss”. A party spokesperson said:

This was a needless and self-inflicted loss for Labour.

First, Starmer’s utterly factional selection processes resulted in a candidate who was clearly unfit for office. Then the Labour Leadership tried to defend him as one of their own. Finally, Keir Starmer’s failure to stand with Gaza in its hour of need left the door open for George Galloway.

To avoid any more damaging repeats, Starmer should end the factional abuse of Labour’s selection processes and stand up for an immediate, permanent ceasefire in Gaze.

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Nicholas Watt from Newsnight interviewed George Galloway as he was leaving the count. Galloway told him:

If you believe that Keir Starmer is genuinely seeking an end to the slaughter in Gaza, I’ve got a bridge in London that I could sell you.

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