Retired Liberal Senator Rob Stokes tipped to run for MacKellar as Liberals seek to win back federal seat from Teal Independents

Former NSW Planning and Education Minister Rob Stokes is weighing up whether to run for the federal seat of MacKellar after being approached by Liberal figures to take on Independent Sophie Scamps as the party looks at ways to break through the Teal wall in 2025.

Sky News understands that party figures have approached Mr Stokes, who retired as the state member for Pittwater this year, as polling suggests he would have a good chance of taking the seat, which Ms Scamps holds by 2.5 per cent.

Liberal sources also indicated former premier Mike Baird is not ruling out running for the seat of Warringah, while another former NSW government figure being talked about to take on Independent Kylea Tink in North Sydney or Labor in the seat of Bennelong is former NSW Treasurer Matt Kean.

Former treasurer Josh Frydenberg – seen as a leadership rival to Peter Dutton – is still said to be weighing up his options as to an attempted political comeback – including whether to take on Monique Ryan in the seat of Kooyong that he lost last year, or to take on Labor in the seat of Higgins.

The Liberal party lost its traditionally safe-held seats of MacKellar, Wentworth, North Sydney, Kooyong, Goldstein and Curtin to so-called Teal Independents in the Scott Morrison loss of 2022.

This was after Zali Steggall claimed Tony Abbott’s seat of Warringah in 2019. 

A large impediment to Peter Dutton winning government is that to get there, senior Liberals believe beating Labor in the outer suburbs and the regions will not be enough and the Coalition will need to win at least some Independent seats back.

At present, in the House of Representatives – after Labor took the Aston by-election from the Liberals – Labor has 78 seats, the Coalition just 56 with crossbenchers and the Greens holding 17 seats. Peter Dutton therefore would need to win a whopping 20 seats to win a majority.

Coalition sources have spoken about a two-term strategy to returning to office involving the Opposition forcing Labor into minority government at the next election before winning in 2028.

Discussions around candidates for the next election comes with a race on between former NSW Minister Andrew Constance and Voice No campaigner Warren Mundine for an upcoming Senate preselection to replace former Foreign Minister Marise Payne after Ms Payne announced her retirement on Friday.