Rescue plan. What situation does Putin find himself in

Dictator Vladimir Putin speaking at SPIEF 2023

Why Putin chose an inertial path.

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Someone from the Russian commentariat very aptly described Putin’s speech at the Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum-23 as a self-hypnosis. There is a well-known expression in Russia, such a metaphor: “Potemkin villages.” Putin’s speeches about the economy, about successes in the war – this is the same “Potemkin village.” In general, between Putin’s speeches and this metaphor, they are identical.

This is an attempt to show a parallel reality. It is very symbolic that, at the same time, Russians on different channels, including through some African countries, are actually promoting the idea of ​​reducing and limiting sanctions against Russia. If everything is so good and fine, why is Russia striving to lift sanctions? Therefore, the problem is apparent.

Russia has always had such projects, and this is a feature. They are always connected to money laundering and other crimes. But they are all Russian chauvinists and Putin’s oligarchs. And they make money on it.

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Regarding the Power of Siberia gas pipeline to China, China has recently limited its consumption of Russian gas and is attempting to balance. While China does purchase a lot of Russian gas and oil, it also signs contracts with other suppliers to not wholly rely on Russia. Many in Europe and China have come to understand that Russia is a very risky business partner, as many things can go wrong and problems can arise. Therefore, in my opinion, this approach is questionable.

Russia has entered a phase of tension due to the current war

, and this tension is increasing and becoming excessive. The elites are the first to feel it. Regarding the economy and socio-political development, the elites think that the country is not just at a dead end; it is on the brink of an abyss. There are risks of a crisis that may occur in both political and economic terms. The logic works a little differently here. Or, you can remember Chernomyrdin’s famous phrase: “They wanted the best, but it turned out as always.” That’s how it is with Putin. He wanted one thing, but it turned out completely differently. Therefore, instead of the greatest victories in the history of Putin’s rule, Putin will ultimately receive the most significant crisis for himself and Russia.

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Is it profitable for Putin to end the war? The situation for Putin is a deadlock. It became apparent last year when, even in Russia, they concluded that they are unlikely to win this war. Konstantin Zatulin, a longtime Ukrainianophobe since the 1990s, admitted that the current war against Ukraine would not lead to a change in the political regime in Ukraine. Whoever is in power in Ukraine will act in the interests of Ukraine. They will not be friends with Russia, let alone Putin’s Russia. Zatulin acknowledged this. And in principle, representatives of Putin’s elites understand this. And that is why the situation is deadlocked for Putin; he cannot win this war.

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This is already beginning to be understood both in his circle and among the Russian elites, but he does not want to lose. For him, defeat in the war can end simply with the loss of power and shame. Instead of being a historical conqueror, which he sought, as a “great Russian commander,” a “multiplier of Russian lands,” he may end up disgraced, like, for example, Nicholas II. This is a problem for him. That is why he does not want to lose. What to do in this situation? He has chosen an inertial path. He cannot activate the war because he lacks the strength and economic resources. Therefore, the war continues on inertia.

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He is waiting for some event like Trump winning the election in the United States and wanting to negotiate with Putin. The mood may change in Europe, where there will be elections to the European Parliament next year. Ukraine and the West will eventually go to negotiations on Putin’s terms, potentially freezing the conflict and obtaining the consolation prize of the occupied Ukrainian territories. It may be a plan of salvation for him, which he is trying to promote through some of his partners. Meanwhile, in African countries that offer a peace plan, the idea of freezing the conflict seems more suitable for Putin. In any case, Putin will not win this war, and his only salvation are options that at least provide some personal way out, and give him a chance to avoid a humiliating defeat. Nevertheless, the risks of defeat for Putin remain.

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