Red Sox vs Yankees Picks and Predictions: Devers Goes Down Swinging for Sox

The Bombers figure to continue blasting at the plate, but one Rafael Devers can definitely counter for the BoSox. We’re backing lots of runs in a home side win, but see why Devers is our Red Sox vs. Yankees best bet.

The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees face off in the Big Apple on Saturday night. These clubs split a four-game set at Fenway last weekend and the Red Sox took the first game in this series with a 5-4 victory in extra innings last night.

The Yankees have the best record in the majors and MLB betting lines opened with them as -156 home favorites for this contest. Here are our best free Red Sox vs. Yankees MLB picks and predictions for July 16. 

Red Sox vs Yankees odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

This line hit the board with the Yankees at -156 and the total at 8.5. Early money came in on the Yankees, moving their line to -165

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Red Sox vs Yankees predictions

Picks made on 7/16/2022 at 2 p.m. ET.Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Red Sox vs Yankees game info

• Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY• Date: Saturday, July 16, 2022• First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET• TV: FOX

Red Sox vs Yankees betting preview Starting pitchers

Nick Pivetta (8-6, 4.08 ERA): The veteran right-hander entered July with a 3.23 ERA through his first 16 starts of the year but things have gone sideways this month. Pivetta surrendered eight hits and seven runs in 5 2-3 innings against Tampa Bay last week and was then shredded for eight hits and six runs in just 3 1-3 innings versus the Yankees on Sunday.

Jameson Taillon (9-2, 4.01 ERA): Like Pivetta, Taillon was pitching very well until recently. Through his first 10 starts of the year, he had a sizzling 2.30 ERA but in his last seven starts, he’s pitched to a 7.07 ERA. His last outing came against the Red Sox on Sunday when he allowed three dingers and six runs in five innings.

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Betting trend to know

The Red Sox are 8-20 in their last 28 games versus American League East foes. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Yankees

Red Sox vs Yankees picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Yankees have an MLB-best 62-28 record but have lost five of their last six contests, with three of those defeats coming against the Red Sox. Meanwhile, the BoSox are 48-43 but have gone just 3-8 in their 11 previous contests. 

These are two of the best hitting teams in the big with the Yankees second in the majors with an OPS of .767 and the Red Sox seventh with an OPS of .734.

The Bronx Bombers have been mashing with Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, and Giancarlo Stanton leading the way but even the bottom of their lineup has guys with pop. The Red Sox are very top-heavy, with Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, and J.D. Martinez mashing at the top of their order but they have more holes throughout their lineup.

Over the last 15 days, the Yankees are leading the majors with an OPS of .840, while the BoSox have an OPS of just .680 over the same period. 

When it comes to the pitching tonight, both sides have starters who began the season strong but have struggled lately.

Nick Pivetta has surrendered 16 hits and 13 earned runs in nine innings this month, while Jameson Taillon has pitched to a 7.07 ERA with a 1.63 WHIP in his previous seven starts. Pivetta and Taillon actually faced off on Sunday in an 11-6 Red Sox victory but it’s worth mentioning that Taillon had a 2.04 ERA in three starts versus the BoSox last year. 

While the matchup between starting pitchers might be a wash, the Yankees have the better bullpen with their relievers pitching to a combined 2.93 ERA — second-best in the majors.

With the Yankees boasting an advantage at the plate and the better bullpen I’m expecting them to bounce back against a Red Sox team that hasn’t always shown up against tough competition.

Prediction: Yankees moneyline (-161 at Caesars)

Covers MLB betting analysis

Over/Under analysis

The total is sitting at 8.5, and given the current play of both starters, that number looks a tad too low. While both Pivetta and Taillon had some really impressive numbers through the first couple months of the year, their mediocre analytic stats indicated that regression was inevitable. That regression has set in almost overnight and it’s tough not to see at least one of these teams put up plenty of runs on the board. 

The Yankees lead the majors with 5.22 runs per game, and that was with the slow offensive start to the year that virtually every team suffered from. Since the start of June, the Yankees have plated a whopping 5.88 runs per game. 

The Red Sox haven’t been quite as impressive at the dish but they still rank sixth in the majors with 4.69 runs per game while bumping that number up to 5.09 since the beginning of May.

With the Over going 8-1 in the Yankees’ last nine games, including five Overs cashing against the Red Sox, I’m betting on the Over tonight.

Prediction: Over 8.5 (-110 at bet365)

Best bet

Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers leads the majors with 204 total bases and should be poised for another big night today. Devers hit a two-run homer in the first inning last night and has racked up at least two total bases in seven of 10 games this month. 

That’s bad news for Taillon, who has allowed opposing batters to slug .608 in his last seven starts. While the left-handed Devers wasn’t in the lineup for Taillon’s start on Sunday he has been feasting on right-handers like Taillon, boasting a slugging percentage of .636 against them.

Devers also tends to hit the ball hard and deep, which will test a Yankees outfield that is among the worst in the bigs at fielding. I’m hammering the Over 1.5 on his total bases today.

Rafael Devers prop: Over 1.5 total bases (-102 at Caesars)

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