Red Sox vs. Blue Jays picks and odds: Stripling, Wacha matchup will lead to early runs

The Toronto Blue Jays can grab another series win Wednesday after taking the first two contests of their four-game set with the Boston Red Sox.

The pregame narrative: The Blue Jays have gotten outstanding starting pitching in this series with Jose Berrios and Kevin Gausman providing 13 innings of three-run ball in the two victories. Sending Ross Stripling to the mound Wednesday could put more pressure on the club’s bullpen and lineup, which pulled through late for a come-from-behind win last night.

Check out our top Red Sox vs. Blue Jays picks for April 27.

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Red Sox vs. Blue Jays picks overview

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays picks

Best bet: Both teams to score one or more runs in the first three innings (+130)

This prop is a pretty specific bet against Wednesday’s starting pitching. Although Stripling and Michael Wacha have gotten off to respectable starts in 2022, they were both extremely unimpressive last year over extensive samples.

Read more: Red Sox vs. Blue Jays prop picks April 27

Stripling and Wacha were hit hard and combined for a 4.94 ERA in 226 innings. Their collective 89.9 mph exit velocity against would’ve ranked 13th-worst among qualified pitchers, their 1.83 HR/9 would’ve been the third-worst mark and their 10.3% barrel rate would’ve been dead last.

It’s been a different story in 2022 (2.96 ERA), but there’s no reason to believe that’s more than a small-sample-size fluke. Neither pitcher added velocity (Wacha has lost almost 1 mph) or expanded their repertoire.

Making this bet more appealing is the fact that both have struggled the first time through the order dating back to last season, with Stripling getting hit particularly hard.

Pitcher AVG against OBP against SLG against Wacha .277 .330 .447 Stripling .283 .315 .585

As a cherry on top, both guys have encountered issues against the hitters they’ll see tonight.

Pitcher AVG against SLG against xAVG against xSLG against Wacha .333 .500 .306 .478 Stripling .276 .586 .275 .532

Key stat: Stripling is 14-for-21 allowing a run in the first three innings of starts since 2021. Wacha is 16-for-26.

Quick picks

Both teams to score four or more runs (+190): This is another bet on Wednesday’s pitching matchup being ripe for runs, with significantly more value than a simple over/under (set at 8.5). Neither club has scored as much as expected yet, but both ranked in the top five in scoring last season and possess the same cores.

Read more: How to bet on the Blue Jays

Blue Jays -1.5 (+135): While Toronto doesn’t have a starting pitching edge, it has a couple of other advantages in this one. The first is a lineup with an OPS 117 points stronger than Boston this season. The Red Sox’s bullpen options will also be limited. They used seven relievers Tuesday and need to conserve arms for Thursday when reliever Garrett Whitlock is starting.

Odds courtesy of Sportingbet as of 10:15 a.m. ET on 04/27/2022. 

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Nick Ashbourne writes about sports betting for NorthStar Bets. NorthStar Bets is owned by NordStar Capital, which also owns Torstar, the Star’s parent company. Follow him on Twitter: @NickAshbourne SHARE:

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