Randwick races: Shayne O’Cass’ tips and extended preview for day one of The Championships

Only nine fillies have won the ATC Derby but form analyst Shayne O’Cass expects it will become 10 on Saturday. FULL ANALYSIS

Daily Telegraph form analyst Shayne O’Cass runs the rule over every race and gives his suggested bets for day one of The Championships at Randwick.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

ROYAL RANDWICK

Track: Heavy 9. Rail: True

R1: WIDDEN KINDERGARTEN STAKES (1100m)

Bahama is a cheap horse at $250,000 bearing in mind she is a Redoute’s Choice three-quarter-sister to VRC Sires’ winner, Zuluand. Trained by Team Hawkes, Bahama was doing very good things late in her trial. Market the best guide. Dark Rebel is the ‘value runner’ at $26. Stunning type like his old man, Astern, and he too was at his most impressive in the last bit of his trial. Lovemetender was third to Najmaty and Sonnet Star first-up. Nice form that.

SUGGESTED BET: Bahama win, Dark Rebel place

R2: CARBINE CLUB STAKES (1600m)

The Irishman’s narrow second in the Phar Lap to Hungry Heart looks even better now after Waller’s filly won the Vinery last weekend. Newnham’s colt is a tough and professional horse who will give himself every chance from the alley. Wheelhouse kicked off the campaign with a massive win at the midweeks and not long after is fourth and fifth in the two Guineas’s. That progress! Poland trialled well here the other morning.

SUGGESTED BET: The Irishman win, quinella 2,4

R3: COUNTRY CHAMPIONSHIPS FINAL (1400m)

Art Cadeau has raced 10 times for four wins and six seconds, two of them by a nose! Terry Robinson, the man who sat behind Gammalite and Koala King in his pacing days, has timed his run into the Grand Final to the second – oh, and he got the dream gate (2). High pressure race this one, if something does a Super Impose on them late, I say it’s Benny Looker on Activation. Tara Jasmine is the X-factor.

SUGGESTED BET: Art Cadeau win, exacta 3/9

R4: ADRIAN KNOX STAKES (2000m)

Edward Cummings went close in the Tulloch with Prompt Prodigy, he could go one better in the Adrian Knox with Duais who just does not run bad races expect that day she was knee deep in it. She’s got the stamina – grand-dam won the Perth Cup, the eighth dam is Rainbird won the 1945 Melbourne Cup. Land Ahoy has been given the ‘Sarge treatment’ that is to say she is locked and loaded for the ten furlongs. Signora Nera has claims.

SUGGESTED BET: Duais, Land Ahoy each-way

R5: CHAIRMAN’S QUALITY (2600m)

The last time Rondinella won was at Te Rapa 791-days ago but since then she was third in a Tancred, fourth in a Sydney Cup and is up to a trip now where she has been effective at in the past. If she had a better run in transit in the Epona, she runs second no fear. Doubt anyone could have missed the runs of Selino and Ulster Derby winner Dadoozdart in the Manion.

SUGGESTED BET: Rondinella each-way

R6: INGLIS SIRES’ (1400m)

James Cummings first Sires’ winner Microphone ran second in the Slipper but it’s fair to say Anamoe’s second in the Slipper was better and more synonymous with a horse that was going to eat up 1400m and then ask for 200m in the Champagne. Captivant was fantastic in the Slipper and is still on the up. Ditto for Four Moves Ahead. Tiger Of Malay is somewhat underrated. The two Anthony Cummings types, Lease and Chill, are way, way over the odds.

SUGGESTED BET: Anamoe win

R7: AUSTRALIAN DERBY (2400m)

Montefilia can be only then 10th filly to win the ATC Derby done first all the way back in 1865 and last achieved by Shamrocker in 2011. Monteflia had every chance in the VRC Oaks when beaten at the $1.85 but she is a better filly this time around. Lion’s Roar was one of the best runs in the Rosehill Guineas. He was bred to win a Derby and he’s one step closer now. Sky Lab has made giant leaps this time in. Rocket Spade is the NZ Derby winner and that alone deserves respect. Prompt Prodigy is the blowout.

SUGGESTED BET: Montefilia win

R8: TJ SMITH STAKES (1200m)

Libertini has twice gone under 1.08s for the Randwick 1200m, admittedly on flat fast decks, but my point is that she can withstand very, very high pressure races and sprint fast at the end. That said, she is far less effective on rain affected tracks, you would almost say that it needs to be Good 4 or an improving Soft 5. The top three in the book; Bivouac, Nature Strip and Eduardo are the three best sprinters in the world but I can honestly say, nothing is trialling better in Sydney than the tenacious Eleven Eleven.

SUGGESTED BET: Libertini on a Good 4 win and/or Eleven Eleven each-way

R9: DONCASTER MILE (1600m)

The last two horses to win the Donny with the number one saddlecloth on were Sunline in 2002 and the mighty Super Impose in 1991. Over to you Mugatoo. The Kris Lees trained import won a race at the midweeks on Australia Day-eve last year and here is now the Donacster fav with a rating of 114. Amazing. Mo’unga will be the 40th three-year-old to win the Doncaster if successful. He might still be untapped. Avilius is back to his best. Cascadian would run right over the top of them here.

SUGGESTED BET: Mugatoo win, box trifecta 1,2,10,15,19

R10: PJ BELL STAKES (1200 METRES)

Trial watchers were no doubt shocked that Tudor Music went up $126 in what is a massive test for her and a very good field of fillies. But, did anyone see how close she got to Nature Strip in that Heat last week? Granted, the big fella was rolling along like an upbeat walk in the park but Greg Hickman’s filly was hardly being pressured herself. Anyway, $126 is just too inviting. Mind you, Najmah at $11 all up the half-sister Najmaty in the Percy Sykes is mouth-watering too.

SUGGESTED BET: Tudor Music (small) each-way, Najmah all-up Najmaty in the Percy Sykes