Prigozhin and Wagner cannot challenge Putin’s power directly, but they expose his weakening grip

Once again Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine has taken a turn he never expected. The Russian leader’s brief speech denouncing the Wagner group’s Yevgeny Prigozhin, and what appears to be a significant mutiny, showed he knows just how dangerous the situation could be for him – but if he has a convincing plan for how to deal with it, he didn’t share it.

Putin compared Prigozhin’s actions to the “intrigues” that he said brought down the Russian army, and then the state itself, in 1917. He’s not wrong – this is not unlike the way Russian army units left the front en masse during that military collapse.

Putin’s defiant rhetoric promising to deal firmly with this treachery comes after weeks of silence over the growing confrontation between Prigozhin and Russia’s regular military. Invoking what happened in 1917 may mean that Putin realises he has left this too late, and allowed a real challenge to the stability of his power in Russia to develop.

Prigozhin, and the forces with him, are in no position to challenge Putin’s grip on power directly, even if they wanted to. But indirectly, they have already shown the weakness of that grip. An armed force is roaming southern Russia and demanding recognition from the state authorities. That’s a long way from the unity of power that Putin has worked so long to enforce.

The situation is still fast-moving. In any standoff between Russia’s security forces and Wagner troops, a lot can hinge on what happens at a local level. Wagner has a longstanding close relationship with Russia’s military intelligence special forces, including shared bases and facilities. It’s hard to know which way those forces will jump – or any of the other units that have been deployed to block a possible move by Wagner’s main force further into Russia and towards Moscow. Units or groups from any of Russia’s military, paramilitary or intelligence organisations adjusting their allegiance to side with Prigozhin – or simply refusing to obstruct him – could shift the power balance swiftly.

While it’s good news for Kyiv that some of Russia’s forces will be temporarily distracted, nobody should imagine that this development will lessen the threat to Ukraine and to Europe. Prigozhin’s argument is not with the war – it’s with how, and why, it is fought. This is a confrontation between some of the worst people in the world, in a dispute over how to destroy Ukraine the most efficiently.

Ukraine will be watching for an opportunity to turn Russia’s internal chaos into advantage on the frontline. Even if Prigozhin’s mutiny is brought swiftly under control, it is bound to sow confusion and uncertainty among Russian soldiers and commanders more widely – and Ukrainian information operations should be adept at exploiting and increasing it.

Russia has moved to restrict internet access to reduce the reach of Prigozhin’s announcements. There’s a delicious irony in the Russian authorities complaining about Wagner’s domination of the media narrative after all the years when Prigozhin was commissioned by Russia to run “troll farms” to do just that.

This demonstration of Russia’s fragility only re-emphasises how vital it is to continue unqualified support for Ukraine. The suggestion that Russia cannot be defeated, and therefore it is better not to try and instead “negotiated settlement” is the only way forward, has been comprehensively torpedoed by this internal strife. But this is a temporary setback for Russia – and urgently increased support for Ukraine has the potential to bring about a permanent solution.

A distracted, weakened Russia is good news for everybody else. Prigozhin’s challenge to Moscow is a confrontation between a psychopath leading a gang of murderous criminals and a mafia boss sitting in the Kremlin and dividing Russia’s riches between his cronies. We should wish both sides good luck.