Premier League predictions: Bournemouth to stun Liverpool

Our resident tipster and betting guru Jones Knows is back to provide his tips and analysis across the Premier League card.

Fulham vs Brentford, Saturday 3pm

Is there are a more underrated player in the Premier League than Rico Henry? He’s been consistently performing at this level for two seasons now, showing strong one-on-one defensive nous and providing a huge threat when joining attacks.

The fact he’s not even priced up to make England’s 26-man World Cup squad says it all. If anything happened to Luke Shaw or Ben Chilwell – players he’s not that inferior too anyway – then he’s the next in line, by some distance too. He played incredibly advanced in a wing-back role vs Tottenham, trying breaking the line regularly and created three chances for his teammates, one of those scored by Yoane Wissa. If he undertakes similar tactics here, then the 5/1 for him to register another assist is very eye catching in what should be a goal-heavy game.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-3Wolves vs Brighton, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Before Wolves had kicked a ball this season, Brighton were almost 4/7 with Sky Bet for this fixture. Gary O’Neil’s side then stormed Old Trafford with a dynamic, organised and purposeful performance that gave off early signs that they’ll be just fine. It was a showing that shifted the Brighton price almost 13 per cent to 10/11. That is quite tempting on a team who for my money remain top-four contenders this season but instead in getting involved in the outright market, I’m all over backing the goal-line.

The price that stands out to me is the 11/10 on both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals in the game – it’s a bet that has landed in 14 of 20 away matches under Roberto De Zerbi and if anything, the average goals under him this season may rise having lost Moises Caicedo. That was on show vs Luton where the new boys created ample counter-attacking situations last weekend as Brighton may just take time to work out the new defensive balance without their world-class midfield destroyer.

Image: Solly March celebrates his goal with Brighton team-mates in the win over Luton

Wolves played like a team that will throw more caution to the wind on Monday so I’d expect their average goals per game ratio to be on the up this season. This encounter looks ripe for goals.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-3 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Over 2.5 goals & BTTS (11/10 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!Liverpool vs Bournemouth, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Andoni Iraola has a reputation for serving it up to the big boys away from home. When managing in LaLiga, his Rayo Vallecano side put together two famous results in Barcelona – a 1-0 win and a 0-0 – whilst only going down to two 2-1 defeats at Real Madrid. On both of those trips to the Bernabéu they won the shot count, which shows his teams aren’t plagued by fear when taking on big challenges.

His counter-attacking, high-pressing style is far more suited to a game of this nature where his team won’t have the ball. Against West Ham last weekend, Bournemouth looked lacklustre for 60 minutes with the Hammers happy to relinquish possession. His team eventually found their stride and finished strongly to secure a 1-1 draw and I’m excited to see Iraola’s aggressive style being deployed at Anfield. Although it’s far too early in his reign to think about taking the 10/1 with Sky Bet for an way win, we can get the Cherries on side in the shots on target markets.

With a midfield lacking in defensive balance, the Liverpool machine isn’t running to perfect working order yet and there will be opportunities for Bournemouth in transition. Jurgen Klopp’s side have faced four or more shots on target in 53 per cent of their last 40 Premier League games. When factoring in Bournemouth’s anticipated brave approach, it makes the 11/8 with Sky Bet an appealing angle for them to record four or more shots on target.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2Tottenham vs Manchester United, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE! Image: Tottenham vs Manchester United, live on Sky Sports

Making sweeping statements or coming to strong conclusions about a team on just 90 minutes of football isn’t an advisable strategy, however, I’ve gone very lukewarm about Manchester United’s prospects this season.

Not only because of their jaded and lightweight showing vs Wolves but also because of the ageing limbs of key players like Casemiro and Raphael Varane. Additionally, Erik ten Hag’s record on the road against elite opposition remains hard to ignore having taken just one point from 24 available in Premier League away games vs the top nine last season – it was the worst record of any team. I certainly saw enough from Tottenham in terms of Ange Postecoglou getting his ethos across to make Spurs a tempting proposition at Evens on the draw-no-bet market with Sky Bet here.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1Manchester City vs Newcastle, Saturday 8pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Newcastle possess the defensive structure and ability to seriously frustrate the champions – more so than the market expects. There’s enough in the prices to get me interested in this game going down a scrappy, low-scoring avenue with the under 2.5 goals line at 11/10 with Sky Bet standing out.

In six games away from home in the Premier League last season against the top six, Newcastle conceded just five goals and kept clean sheets at Arsenal, Manchester United and Brighton – all of those games ended 0-0. On average those games saw a total of just 1.3 goals per game.

If Newcastle are to play the frustration game on City then goalkeeper Nick Pope could be a shout for a yellow card too at 17/2 with Sky Bet. There has been a notable clampdown on timewasting with referees going straight to cards rather than issuing warnings. It’s going to lead to spikes in away goalkeepers being carded.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1Aston Villa vs Everton, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE! Image: Aston Villa vs Everton, live on Sky Sports

To use some horse racing methodology, you can always forgive a horse one bad run if there were legitimate excuses on the day. That is the best way to treat Villa’s opening day thrashing at Newcastle where the injury to Tyrone Mings certainly affected their rhythm and they bumped into a serious animal of an opposition at St James’ Park. With Everton still struggling for goals, those playing the home win at 4/6 with Sky Bet should see a return for their investment as Villa look to make it eight wins on the spin at Villa Park.

I’d expect Everton to have their moments though as they’ve averaged 14 shots per-game away from home in their last seven away days. This potentially makes the versatile Alex Iwobi interesting for a shot on target at Evens with Sky Bet. He is filling in for the injured Dwight McNeil down the left and he managed four shots, two of which were on target against Fulham as his tendency to cut in on his stronger right foot opened up lots of shooting opportunities.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0West Ham vs Chelsea, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Reece James’ hamstring injury really is a blow for anyone taking positive vibes on Mauricio Pochettino’a team this season. There was a huge amount to like from their performance vs Liverpool, especially in terms of their defensive structure which offered up just one shot on target to the usually rip roaring Reds attack. I’ve got an early season theory that Chelsea will be very hard to beat but also very hard to win with whilst their goalscoring issues linger and key creative forces like James are sidelined.

That should lend itself to low scoring games which makes the 5/2 with Sky Bet a runner here for under 1.5 goals against a West Ham side who also won’t be giving much away.

Ben Chilwell is a player to monitor and back across the attacking prop markets under Pochettino, who allowed his wing-back so much attacking licence last weekend and was demanding his midfielders look for that switch with every attack.

Such was Chilwell’s aggressiveness, he was the second highest player when analysing the average positions of the Chelsea team. He recorded a shot on target to a backdrop of 0.16 expected goals – a poor first touch cost him – whilst also having a goal disallowed when venturing into a central area. Take you pick across Chilwell to have two or more shots at 11/8, one or more shots on target at 2/1 and the 18/1 for him to score first.

Image: Chelsea’s Ben Chilwell scores a goal that was later disallowed by VAR for offside SCORE PREDICTION: 0-0 JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Ben Chilwell to score first (20/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!) & Chilwell to have at least one shot on target (2/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)Crystal Palace vs Arsenal, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports Image: Crystal Palace vs Arsenal, live on Sky Sports

I remain unconvinced about Arsenal’s ability to challenge for major honours but Mikel Arteta’s boys are usually very reliable in matches of this banana skin nature. Their aggregate score against bottom half teams last season was 52-17, losing just twice, narrowly at Everton and Nottingham Forest.

There’s no denying that Roy Hodgson has had an impact: since his first game back, Palace (21) have won more points than Arsenal (18), both across 11 Premier League games. However, a regression back to being a solid mid-table outfit is likely for a squad that does lack strength in depth across many positions.

Those wanting to get a bit frisky and boost the away win price should consider taking Gabriel Martinelli to score first in a 2-0 win at 30/1 with Sky Bet. He scored in both starts against Palace last season and ended up their joint-top scorer with 15 Premier League goals. Always outperforming his expected goals return is a very likeable trait (15 goals came from just 9.1 xG) in a goalscorer and he looks in the mood for an amazing season down that left flank.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2