Predicting Every NFL Team’s Biggest Bust of the 2023 NFL Season

Predicting Every NFL Team’s Biggest Bust of the 2023 NFL Season

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New York Giants tight end Darren WallerAP Photo/John Minchillo

Hope abounds throughout summer and spring in the NFL. That first-round pick that has yet to spread his wings is headed for a breakout year. That oft-injured veteran is bound to regain his form and that new coordinator is going to get the most out of your team’s talented roster.

Then fall hits and reality starts to set in.

Right now, fans, coaches and front office personnel are talking themselves into the most positive outcomes for every player on the roster. Unfortunately, every team has at least one player who fails to live up to expectations.

To be clear, we are only talking about being a “bust” this season in the sense a player won’t live up to their expectations should be for this season.

Here, we’ll take a look at one player on each team who has some underlying reasons to believe they’ll carry that dubious distinction for their team.

Arizona Cardinals: WR Marquise Brown

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When the Cardinals traded a first-round pick for Marquise Brown last year it was supposed to be the beginning of the transition from DeAndre Hopkins as WR1.

Hopkins was suspended for the first six games of the year which gave Brown the opportunity to shine. Instead, Brown was slightly less productive than he was with the Ravens on a per-game basis and Hopkins was the team’s top receiver when he returned to the lineup.

He led the team in receiving despite Brown playing in three more games.

Now Brown will attempt to make good on his potential without Hopkins in the lineup and Kyler Murray facing a murky timeline in his return from an ACL tear.

The 5’9″, 180-pound Brown is going to continue to struggle to show that he’s a true elite receiving threat with Colt McCoy set to start some games for the Cards.

Atlanta Falcons: Edge Bud Dupree

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Bud Dupree is not going to save the Falcons pass rush. Just ask the Tennessee Titans how that plan plays out.

The Falcons—who were last in pressure percentage last season—have taken several stabs at solving their pass rush issues over the last few seasons. Dupree is one of the latest as they gave him a modest one-year, $3 million contract to see if he can return to his form from his days with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The fact is that Dupree’s best days came with the Steelers in a blitz-heavy scheme that featured T.J. Watt. That makes production a lot easier to come by. When the Titans scheme asked him to win matchups by himself without the benefit of blitzing, he combined for just seven sacks over the last two seasons.

It doesn’t help that injuries limited him to 22 games in those seasons as well.

The continued development of Lorenzo Carter and a breakout season from Arnold Ebikitie are much more likely to help the Falcons get after the passer.

Baltimore Ravens: Edge David Ojabo

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There’s a lot to like about David Ojabo. The former Michigan Wolverine is an incredible athlete and could have been headed toward being a first-round selection before tearing his Achilles at his Pro Day.

The injury cost Ojabo nearly his entire rookie season but he did make an impressive recovery to play in two games although he only registered 21 defensive snaps. He managed to get his first sack on an effort play against Jonah Williams in that final game.

While the play was a great demonstration of his motor, it didn’t exactly feature the explosive get-off we saw from him at Michigan.

Ojabo was only a one-year starter for the Wolverines and was projected to need some time to develop into an NFL starter. Achilles injuries can be difficult to come back from and usually require extra time to get back to complete recovery.

On paper, the Ravens are relying fairly heavily on Ojabo and Odafe Oweh to both have breakout seasons. It’s just probably a year too early to expect that for Ojabo.

Buffalo Bills: WR Gabriel Davis

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The Bills have been waiting on the Gabriel Davis breakout season for three years now. The 6’2″, 210-pound receiver is in as good a spot as any to have 1,000-yard season under his belt by now.

He’s the No. 2 wide receiver on an offense with Josh Allen at quarterback and defenses doing everything they can to slow down Stefon Diggs.

Davis was second on the team in targets last season by a wide margin. Yet, he only reeled in 51.6 percent of his looks for 836 yards and seven touchdowns.

One of the regrets the Bills will have this season is that they didn’t work harder to find a legitimate No. 2 option. There’s a reason they were linked to free agent DeAndre Hopkins.

Davis has had some great moments. The 201-yard, four-touchdown game against the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2021 playoffs comes to mind, but he’s yet to build on that.

This could be the season that he finally proves he’s a solid deep threat, but not a top-tier No. 2 receiver.

Carolina Panthers: RB Miles Sanders

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The Carolina Panthers made a pretty sizable bet that Miles Sanders can be a star running back for them. In an offseason where it was difficult for running backs to get paid on multi-year contracts, they gave him a four-year, $25.4 million deal.

Head coach Frank Reich has gushed about Sanders’ skill set and the team’s plan to make him a three-down back after his receiving numbers were down last season.

“Miles (is) just a versatile, three-down back. Can run inside, outside. Is good at all schemes. Has good vision, balanced body control, acceleration in the hole. He’s really, in a lot of ways, a complete back,” Reich said, per Joseph Person of The Athletic. “We really look for that in that No. 1 spot. Want (him) to be on the field all three downs.”

The Panthers should temper expectations, though. Much of Sanders’ breakout season last year was due to one of the best offensive lines in football and positive game scripts. According to Player Profiler, Sanders enjoyed the best game script of anyone in the league and was eighth in run-blocking rating.

He didn’t rank nearly as high in the metrics that are more reflective of his running like juke rate (35th) or breakaway run rate (29th).

Sanders is a solid back with good blocking. But telling a fanbase that just saw Christian McCaffrey in his prime that Sanders is going to be a star is setting them up for disappointment.

Chicago Bears: WR Chase Claypool

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The Chicago Bears gave up what ultimately became the No. 33 pick in the 2023 draft for Chase Claypool, so it’s safe to say there are high hopes that he’ll become a mainstay of the receiving corps.

The Bears passing attack is facing a make-or-break season with Justin Fields in his third year. They need Claypool to be a big part of that despite a slow start in 2022.

Claypool played in eight games with Chicago, catching 32 of his 50 targets for 311 yards and a touchdown.

Right now, you can chalk that up to Fields still developing as a passer or Claypool coming in and trying to acclimate in the middle of the season. But Fields has to prove he can refine his passing skills this season and Claypool has had an offseason to get acquainted with the Bears playbook.

However, Marc Silverman of the Waddle and Silvy Show on ESPN Chicago 1000 AM, reported there may be some tension between the club and Claypool regarding his work ethic this offseason.

That isn’t promising for a player the Bears need to be a playmaker.

Cincinnati Bengals: S Nick Scott

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This is a case where a player turning out to be a “bust” could be a good thing overall for the team. The Bengals signed Nick Scott to a three-year, $12 million contract after losing Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates III this offseason.

That kind of contract would indicate some level of expectation that Scott is going to be starting alongside second-year player Daxton Hill.

However, that means he’s going to have to beat out Jordan Battle for the spot and that’s not a given. Scott himself has been complimentary of Battle this offseason and the rookie has taken first-team reps while Scott recovers from a shoulder injury.

Scott is a four-year vet but really just completed his first season as a full-time starter for the Rams. He surrendered a passer rating of 118.5 despite picking off two passes.

If Battle can overtake Scott before the season even starts then Scott is going fall into the free agent bust category for the Bengals.

Cleveland Browns: WR Donovan Peoples-Jones

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Donovan Peoples-Jones has gotten better every season as he approaches his fourth and final year on his rookie contract. Theoretically, this should be the year where he puts everything together, takes another step and locks up a second contract.

But that’s assuming that Peoples-Jones’ role last season was based on his skill set and not an incredibly shallow receiver room.

The truth is that DPJ saw 96 targets because the next receiver in line was rookie David Bell. Anthony Schwartz never amounted to anything more than a guy with a really fast 40 time and the Browns relied on David Njoku to be the de facto second receiver.

That’s not going to be the case this year.

The Browns traded for Elijah Moore who figures to command targets out of the slot and gives them a high-upside YAC specialist. They drafted Cedric Tillman in the third round. The 6’3″, 213-pounder has prototypical wide receiver size and better draft pedigree than Peoples-Jones.

Expect Moore and Tillman to both take up important roles while Peoples-Jones becomes a bit more obscure within the offense.

Dallas Cowboys: OT Tyron Smith

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Last season Cowboys fans saw Ezekiel Elliott’s explosiveness fade before their eyes. They could be in for the same fate with Tyron Smith at left tackle.

Smith has been injury-prone for a while now. He hasn’t played a full season since 2015. He’s played in 17 total regular-season contests over the last three years.

In that span, he has missed time with ankle, neck, hamstring and knee injuries. He did come back to play at the end of last season but he played at right tackle for an injured Terence Steele and he did not look like the same player.

He earned a 58.6 grade from PFF on 271 snaps. That’s a stark contrast from the 91.4 he scored in 2021.

Maybe that was just because he made the switch to the right side after years and year of playing on the left. But more likely, it was because the injuries have caught up to him and he can no longer play at an elite level.

Head coach Mike McCarthy told media he wasn’t sure if Steele will be ready for training camp. That means the Cowboys could be relying on Smith to resume his role as a starting tackle.

Denver Broncos: QB Russell Wilson

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Russell Wilson was not the quarterback the Denver Broncos thought they were getting when they traded away a package of draft picks and players to get him from the Seattle Seahawks last season.

Wilson, a nine-time Pro Bowler and one-time Super Bowl champion, was 27th in total QBR and threw a career-low 16 touchdowns to 11 interceptions. The Broncos were 27th in offensive EPA and Nathaniel Hackett didn’t even make it through the season as head coach.

The coach became the scapegoat for the offense’s misgivings and certainly deserved some of it.

In theory, the Broncos making the move to bring in Sean Payton will be the salve to soothe the wounds of last season.

That doesn’t take into account that it was still Wilson making decisions within Hackett’s offense. It was still his arm trying to deliver an accurate ball. According to Player Profiler, Wilson threw 31 interceptable passes last season, the fourth-highest in the league.

Payton certainly has the offensive mind to put Wilson in better positions to succeed, but it’s also possible that the 34-year-old is just no longer the player he once was.

Detroit Lions: WR Jameson Williams

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The Lions desperately need Jameson Williams to become their No. 2 wide receiver to pair with Amon-Ra St. Brown. Unfortunately, he didn’t fill that role as a rookie.

He didn’t make his debut until Week 13 because of the ACL injury he suffered in the National Championship Game. By the time Williams was healthy enough to return he was relegated to a limited role.

He flashed the big play ability that made him a first-round pick. His lone catch on the season was a 41-yard touchdown, but he only came down with one of his nine targets.

The Lions were counting on Williams to be ready for the start of the season and finally give them a complimentary player alongside St. Brown. Then Williams was suspended six games for violating the league’s gambling policy.

It’s not quite the same as if he were injured but it’s still valuable time on the field he will be missing. It’s also concerning that it’s going to be a second season where the normal rhythm of playing on a weekly basis will be interrupted.

For Williams to live up to expectations he’s going to have to hit the ground running. That’s a big ask for a guy who just hasn’t seen much NFL action yet.

Green Bay Packers: Edge Lukas Van Ness

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It’s easy to get a little overzealous with expectations for a first-round pick. Ideally, someone worthy of getting taken that early in the draft is also capable of being an impact player right away.

But it’s important to keep a long-term projection in mind when talking about rookies. The Packers learned that last season with Devonte Wyatt. The former Georgia defensive lineman was one of two first-round picks last season.

While Wyatt was expected to be an impact player in Year 1 he never quite got there. He had just 15 tackles, 1.5 sacks and played 23 percent of the defensive snaps. Those numbers should all go up this season but the rookie season was definitely under expectations.

There’s a lot of reason to believe Van Ness could follow a similar arc. The 6’5″, 272-pounder was not a starter for the Iowa defense and has a lot of refinement he needs to do to build his pass-rushing repertoire. In college, he got away with dominating because of his length and strength.

Those won’t be enough to find success early in the NFL. Van Ness will have a rotational role but the bulk of the Packers pass rush is going to come from Rashan Gary and Preston Smith.

Houston Texans: OG Kenyon Green

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Sometimes a rookie takes his lumps and bounces back the following season to prove what he can do. Other times, that tough rookie season is simply a harbinger of things to come.

It’s hard not to shake the idea that Kenyon Green’s rookie year was the latter.

According to Sports Info Solutions, Green had the third-highest number of blown blocks in the league with 42. He played two fewer games than Andrew Wylie and Dennis Daley who ranked ahead of him and play tackle.

After the season, Green talked about how excited he was to have a full offseason after dealing with an injury during the 2022 offseason.

“I can’t wait for this off season,” Green said, per Deepi Sidhu of the team’s website. “You know, I have a full offseason that came off of injury last year, you know, had surgery and everything. So I have a full, complete offseason that I can, you know, get better and I’m very excited.”

Unfortunately, an injury has once again impacted Green’s offseason preparations. He underwent arthroscopic knee surgery in March and missed OTAs.

The injuries and poor play in 2022 might not just be growing pains.

Indianapolis Colts: QB Anthony Richardson

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This is a good time to remind readers that this is only a list of players who will be considered “busts” this season. There are a lot of reasons to buy Anthony Richardson in the long term. There’s a Jalen Hurts-esque ceiling in Shane Steichen’s system in Indianapolis.

But it’s also important to remember that Jalen Hurts only started four games as a rookie and didn’t really silence doubters until Year 3. He also had over 1,000 pass attempts in his time at Alabama and Oklahoma. Richardson had just 393 and was only a starter for one season.

The Colts haven’t named a starter for Week 1. They brought in Gardner Minshew this offseason as a veteran who has familiarity with Steichen from their time in Philadelphia.

James Boyd of The Athletic characterized Richardson’s performance at OTAs as “turbulent,” noting that Richardson often made the most impressive throw of the day but wasn’t impressive.

That’s him as a prospect in a nutshell. The ceiling is immense, but there’s a lot of experience he needs to reach it. If/when he gets on the field this season there’s going to be good, bad and ugly.

Expectations need to be kept relatively low for Richardson as a rookie.

Jacksonville Jaguars: WR Zay Jones

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Zay Jones made the Jaguars brass look pretty smart for signing him to a three-year, $24 million contract in free agency last season.

At first glance, it seemed like a lot of money given his previous production but he made it a smart investment. He finished the season with 82 receptions, 823 yards and five touchdowns and was nearly as important to the offense as Christian Kirk.

But the return of Calvin Ridley from suspension means that one of Kirk, Evan Engram or Jones are about to lose targets and become less relevant.

Jones still struggled with drops last season. He had nine on the season which was second-most in the league, per Player Profiler. He wasn’t necessarily elite at any one thing and was 30th in route win rate.

It was certainly a career year for the 28-year-old, but it may have been more of a product of his role in a good offense than a true breakout season.

Kansas City Chiefs: OT Donovan Smith

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The Kansas City Chiefs made some interesting moves at tackle this offseason. They signed Jawaan Taylor to a big contract in free agency, let Orlando Brown Jr. go to the Cincinnati Bengals and picked up Donovan Smith on a one-year, $3 million contract.

It’s a fine gamble on a player who has eight years of experience starting at left tackle. In theory, it will keep them from having to move the newly acquired Taylor to the blindside after he played on the right in Jacksonville.

The narrative surrounding Smith is that, with the benefit of playing for Andy Reid and a Super Bowl contender in the Chiefs, the veteran will bounce back from a terrible 2022 campaign. Smith played in 13 games last season, giving up six sacks and drawing 12 penalties.

But Smith is going from protecting Tom Brady to Patrick Mahomes. Even with Brady playing his final season he’s the easiest quarterback to protect in the league. According to Next Gen Stats, Brady got the ball out quicker than anyone, averaging just 2.45 seconds.

Brady was a master manipulator of the pocket and only took 22 total sacks last season. Protecting Mahomes is certainly a more difficult ask and it’s reasonable to be dubious that Smith is up for it.

Las Vegas Raiders: QB Jimmy Garoppolo

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The Raiders’ brain trust is putting a lot on Jimmy Garoppolo’s shoulders in 2023. The writing was on the wall for the Derek Carr era by the end of last season but it’s not a slam dunk that Garoppolo is an upgrade.

Jimmy G has proven to be a capable starter who won’t outright lose games. He generally takes care of the ball and has an 87-42 touchdown to interception ratio for his career.

But he does have limitations when it comes to arm strength and he hasn’t been able to stay healthy. There’s a reason the 49ers have been trying to move on from him as a starter for the last two seasons.

He’s played a full season just once in his career and has missed multiple games with ankle, calf, shoulder and foot injuries.

He’s made headlines with a foot injury most recently. Vic Tafur of The Athletic wrote that the team wasn’t aware Garoppolo would need surgery this offseason when they signed him and have an out in his contract if he isn’t healthy.

That’s not exactly a promising start to his Raiders tenure and it might not get much better.

Los Angeles Chargers: Edge Khalil Mack

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Beware the aging edge rusher.

Khalil Mack’s debut season with the Chargers was fine. He earned a Pro Bowl trip with eight sacks and had to carry the Los Angles pass rush with Joey Bosa out for the season.

Then you consider that four of Mack’s eight sacks came in the first two games of the season. His first game in a Chargers uniform saw him get three sacks and he followed it up with another one in Week 2.

Mack’s production dwindled as the season went on and he only had two sacks over the final 11 games of the season. Last season, we saw the Raiders get disappointing production out of Chandler Jones in his age-32 season. Mack could be the next in that trend.

The Chargers spent a second-round pick on Tuli Tuipulotu and they may have to rely on him to make an immediate impact.

The dream of pairing a prime Mack with Bosa may have already passed them by.

Los Angeles Rams: Edge Michael Hoecht

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The Los Angeles Rams defense is essentially Aaron Donald and then a lot of players the team is hoping will pan out.

The starting lineup is nearly unrecognizable from the unit that helped win the Super Bowl two years ago. There are a ton of players on rookie contracts slated to start who have a lot to prove.

While it’s hard to say who will stick around and prove they are part of the rebuild, Michael Hoecht stands out as one who may be set up to struggle. The 6’4″, 310-pound defender moved to outside linebacker in the middle of the season and figures to reprise the role this season.

Hoecht’s move was borne out of necessity when injuries left the Rams thin at the position. Now, he’s spending the offseason training on the outside.

“It’s just getting more comfortable in space, understanding the position, understanding the big picture of the defense,” Hoecht said, per Stu Jackson of the Rams website.

If Hoecht were sliding back inside where he could rush the passer alongside Aaron Donald, it would be exciting to see what he can do to build on his 4.5 sacks last season. But his build isn’t ideal for playing in space and it feels like the Rams are using some wishful thinking.

Miami Dolphins: LB Channing Tindall

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The Miami Dolphins have only made eight selections over the last two NFL drafts so they really need a few of them to step up in 2023. Channing Tindall is one of the top candidates to do so.

The franchise took Tindall with the 102nd pick in 2022 draft. He was their highest pick but the Georgia defender didn’t make much of an impact, he only played nine defensive snaps and was primarily a special teams player.

Tindall pointed to a difficult time adjusting to an NFL playbook as the reason behind his struggles.

“The NFL playbook is very different from a college playbook,” Tindall said, per Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. “It took me a while to grasp it. I feel I’m in a good spot now. Even to this day, there’s stuff that’s confusing to me. Around midseason that’s when I started picking it up.”

That’s should be concerning for the Dolphins as they transition to Vic Fangio’s defense in 2023. Maybe his system will click much sooner for Tindall, but he’s still behind Jerome Baker and David Long Jr. on the depth chart.

Minnesota Vikings: Edge Marcus Davenport

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The Vikings have the offense to contend in the NFC, but it was the defense that was a cause for concern going into the offseason.

Minnesota was 31st in passing defense and 23rd in pressure percentage. They are making a sizable bet that Marcus Davenport is going to help improve those numbers in 2023. He got a one-year, $13 million contract from Minnesota in free agency.

That’s a bet the Saints have been making with frustrating results for years. When Davenport is at the top of his game, he’s a difference-maker. But he’s dealt with plenty of injuries and inconsistencies throughout his career.

A year after setting a career high with nine sacks, he had just half a sack in 2022. Sacks don’t always tell the full story but his overall pressure rate dropped from 16.2 percent to 13.4 percent, per Sports Info Solutions.

Despite only being 26, Davenport’s injury history is as long as a CVS receipt and includes calf, ankle, shoulder, elbow and toe ailments. The Vikings counting on him to remain healthy and become a great sidekick to Danielle Hunter is a bit too optimistic.

New England Patriots: WR DeVante Parker

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It didn’t make a ton of headlines, but the Patriots made a surprising move when they handed DeVante Parker a two-year extension worth $10.8 million.

The move saved them $2.4 million against the cap so it provides a little bit of flexibility but it doesn’t quite clear up the money for a Dalvin Cook or DeAndre Hopkins signing.

It does, however, make it more likely that Parker is still on the roster in two years, which is kind of puzzling given his first season with the team last year.

Parker did not help the Pats’ ailing aerial attack. He caught just 31 passes for 539 yards and three touchdowns while playing in 13 games. Granted, there were issues in play-calling with Joe Judge and Matt Patricia running the offense and Mac Jones took a step back.

But those numbers are largely in line with who Parker has been at this stage in his career. In 2021, he had 40 catches for 515 yards.

If things go right for the Patriots 2022 second-round pick Tyquan Thornton will start taking some of the reps that used to go to Parker while free agent addition Mike Gesicki will take targets away from Parker too.

New Orleans Saints: DL Bryan Bresee

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In 2022, the Saints took Trevor Penning, a boom-or-bust prospect in the first round of the draft to step into a critical role as a rookie.

Penning ended up not fulfilling those expectations. An injury prevented him from making his debut until Week 12 and he didn’t make his first start until the final game of the season where he suffered a Lisfranc injury that kept him out of OTAs.

History has repeated itself in the Bayou.

The Saints lost a considerable amount of talent on the defensive line. David Onyemata and Shy Tuttle both left on the interior of the defensive line with Marcus Davenport also leaving them with a need for more pass-rushing.

In theory, Bryan Bresee will help in both departments, offering pass rush while taking some of the snaps left behind by Onyemata and Tuttle.

In the long-term, the potential of the former 5-star recruit is undeniable. In the short-term there’s reason to worry about his injury history and lack of technique. Here’s what B/R scout Matt Holder wrote about Bresee in his scouting report:

“… he has missed nearly as many games as he’s played. That’s prevented him from showing he can pair his physical traits with clean technique and likely made it difficult to iron out kinks in his game.”

Now Bresee is going to be expected to stay healthy in the grind of an NFL season while learning the finer points of playing defensive line on the fly. It’s a lot to ask.

New York Giants: TE Darren Waller

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The Giants needed to upgrade the weaponry around Daniel Jones after giving him a four-year, $160 million contract this offseason. They’re hoping Darren Waller is going to be a big part of that upgrade.

On paper, Waller provides a veteran presence at a position that needed it last season. Rookie Daniel Bellinger was their top tight end with 30 receptions for 268 yards.

Waller should, of course, improve on those numbers but he’s a risky bet to rely on as a top option in the passing game at this point. The 30-year-old has missed 14 games over the last two seasons with hamstring and knee injuries.

Even when he was able to play last season he was averaging just 3.1 receptions and 43.1 yards per game. He was showing signs of decline in 2021, averaging just 7.2 yards per target.

The signs of decline have been there for two years. If the Giants think they are getting the player that posted back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in 2019 and 2020 they are going to be disappointed.

New York Jets: OT Mekhi Becton

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The Jets need Aaron Rodgers to play at a high level. In order to do that, he has to have solid pass protection in front of him.

That’s where things get a little dicey for the Jets. Going into training camp it’s unclear what their starting offensive line will look like. Both Mekhi Becton and 37-year-old Duane Brown are coming off injuries and both will be aiming for the left tackle spot.

Becton has played in just one game in the last two seasons due to knee injuries. The Athletic’s Zack Rosenblatt provided an update from OTA’s that isn’t all that promising for Becton:

“Becton still has a lot to prove, and I think he’s far from a lock to start at right tackle if/when he loses the competition to (Duane) Brown,” he wrote before predicting that Becton would not be in the Week 1 starting lineup.

This is the final year of Becton’s rookie contract. If he doesn’t emerge from training camp as a starter it could be the final straw for his time in New York.

Philadelphia Eagles: LB Nicholas Morrow

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The Eagles had to make some tough financial decisions this offseason. With a huge free agent class and a tight cap situation, there were bound to be departures from the team that won the NFC last season.

Rebuilding the linebacker corps on the fly was an unfortunate side effect. Kyzir White and T.J. Edwards both left in free agency. While Nakobe Dean is a built-in replacement for one of them, they went to T.J. Edwards’ new team to find a replacement in Nicholas Morrow.

Morrow is coming off the best year of his career for the Bears. He played every snap and logged 116 tackles with 11 tackles for loss. However, he allowed a passer rating of 101.8 when targeted.

It’s an outlier season for him six years into his career. He missed all of 2021 with a foot injury and was not as productive in previous seasons when he was with the Raiders.

There’s something to be said for playing with a more talented defense. Morrow will be surrounded by one of the most talented defensive fronts in football.

However, he’s on the small side for a linebacker at 6’0″, 216 pounds. That makes him a questionable running mate with Dean who is also considered small at 5’11”, 231 pounds.

Pittsburgh Steelers: TE Darnell Washington

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The Steelers potentially got a steal when they took Darnell Washington in the third round of the 2023 NFL draft. That doesn’t mean that he’s going to pay immediate dividends as a rookie, though.

Washington came in at No. 26 on our big board. That grade was based on what he can become, though, not what he is right now.

“Washington is the home run swing at tight end in this draft class. Players with his size and athletic ability do not come around often. It may take a year or two before Washington isn’t so rough around the edges, but he has all the tools to be a Pro Bowl tight end,” B/R scout Derrik Klassen wrote in his scouting report on the tight end.

At 6’7″, 264 pounds, Washington has rare size and speed for his position. He is already a nasty blocker but he still has a lot to learn about the nuance of route running and getting open in the NFL.

The Steelers don’t necessarily have a reason to rush Washington’s development. Pat Freiermuth combined with the wide receiver trio of Diontae Johnson, Allen Robinson II and George Pickens should allow them to bring him along at his pace.

But those who think he’s going to be an immediate contributor may be disappointed.

San Francisco 49ers: RB Elijah Mitchell

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There’s a scenario in which Elijah Mitchell returns to the form he showcased as a rookie, takes a good chunk of the rushing volume from Christian McCaffrey and allows Kyle Shanahan to unleash some hellish packages that will be impossible to defend.

That dream scenario relies on Mitchell returning to that form after an injury-plagued 2022 season.

The problem is that Mitchell has an upright running style that certainly doesn’t help him stay healthy. Even in his rookie season he suffered shoulder, chest and finger injuries that kept him out of games.

Last season his injury woes migrated to the lower body. He dealt with a hamstring injury during training camp and was knocked out for the season by an MCL sprain in November.

It’s a lot of injuries for someone who has been in the league for two years. The Niners have other options who could wind up taking reps from Mitchell including 2022 third-round draft pick Tyrion Davis-Price and undrafted free agent Jordan Mason.

Mitchell is really going to have to earn a role in this offense despite all the promise he showed in his rookie season.

Seattle Seahawks: Edge Uchenna Nwosu

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It’s important to keep in mind that sacks can be a deceiving stat when it comes to edge defenders. The crucial element of playing the position is disrupting the quarterback and beating the man across from them.

In an effort to create, “a more refined gauge on determining who actually are the most skilled, impactful and valuable pass-rushers in football,” Brandon Thorn of Trench Warfare created a film-based metric called True Pressure Rate.

In his film study, he attempted to categorize pressures as either low-quality or high-quality pressures. “Low-quality” are ones generally generated because of a mistake or poor blocking. A “high-quality pressure” is considered to be one that came against average or better blocking and was a result of the rushers skill.

The metric is not kind to Uchenna Nwosu. He was tied for the team’s lead with 9.5 sacks last season, but Thorn’s charting revealed that Nowsu had 49 total pressures but 38 of them were in the low-quality bucket.

He had one of the worst high to low quality ratios, giving evidence that his sack total may have been a bit inflated last season. That could prove to be true in 2023.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: DT Calijah Kancey

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Baker Mayfield is the obvious choice here. He’s been hit with the “bust” label multiple times at this point.

But we’ve at least seen him succeed in the NFL. Geno Smith’s resurgence under new offensive coordinator Dave Canales should give hope as well as the fact that Mayfield will have the best group of receivers he’s ever had in Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Russell Gage.

Much like Mayfield, first-round pick Calijah Kancey has faced a lot of questions about his size but he doesn’t have the proof he can play in spite of his stature yet.

Kancey is diminutive by NFL defensive tackle standards. At 6’1″, 281 pounds, he’s even slightly thinner than Aaron Donald was (6’0″, 285 pounds) when he came into the league.

Kancey’s build and tape point to a player who is going to struggle to defend the run, as noted by Matt Holder in his scouting report.

“The team that selects him will be looking for an interior pass-rusher who might develop into a three-down player with more time in the weight room. But again, that team will be betting on a big outlier,” Holder noted.

That could spell a slow start to Kancey’s career as the Bucs might not be willing to put him out on the field if he will be a liability against the run.

Tennessee Titans: OT Andre Dillard

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AP Photo/George Walker IV

The Titans did a lot to overhaul their offensive line this offseason, but signing Andre Dillard was the biggest financial commitment. They gave the former Eagles tackle a three-year, $29 million contract.

It’s a decent-sized contract for a player who only logged 37 offensive snaps in 2022. Dillard has basically been a spot starter for the entirety of his Eagles career.

The former first-round pick didn’t start until the middle of his rookie season and didn’t hold onto the job. He missed all of 2020 with a biceps injury and was replaced by Jordan Mailata. Of course, Mailata went on to become one of the best tackles in the game.

But it’s still concerning that Dillard couldn’t really break into the lineup over the last two seasons. He did play reasonably well in 2021. He played 340 snaps and only gave up ones sack while drawing seven penalties, per PFF.

It’s hard to tell whether he can turn that limited experience into being a team’s answer at left tackle. It’s a big gamble considering his contract isn’t that much cheaper than the three-year deal the Falcons gave starting tackle Kaleb McGary this offseason.

Washington Commanders: QB Sam Howell

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In a perfect Washington Commander world, Sam Howell would prove all the doubters wrong. The quarterback who was once considered a first-round prospect but slid all the way to the fifth round would get the last laugh.

He’s going to get the opportunity to do it. He’s been penciled in as the team’s starting quarterback since Eric Bieniemy was hired as the new offensive coordinator.

But it’s also telling that the Commanders also brought in Jacoby Brissett this offseason. Brissett is the ideal quarterback to have when you need someone to just step in for a stretch of games and keep the offense afloat.

He did a great job of that with the Browns last season. He was ranked eighth in overall QBR in his 11 games before Deshaun Watson came back from suspension.

The Commanders have the offensive core to win games. If Howell doesn’t hit the ground running it’s hard to believe they won’t look to turn things over to Brissett.

Howell is a fifth-round pick with just one start under his belt and is a size outlier at 6’0″, 218 pounds. There’s a lot stacked against him coming out strong.