Post Politics Now: Biden to give pep talk to Democratic staffers as Election Day rapidly approaches
Election Day #ElectionDay
Today, with 15 days until Election Day, President Biden plans to make the short trip from the White House to the Democratic National Committee headquarters in Washington to give staffers a pep talk. While some analysts say the political terrain has recently grown more favorable for Republicans, Biden predicted last week a swing in favor of Democrats before voting in the midterms concludes. Democrats are likely to seize later this week on a report expected to show strong growth in the economy.
In New York, the Trump Organization, former president Donald Trump’s namesake company, is set to go on trial for alleged tax crimes. Though Trump is not charged personally, the case is among an array of legal challenges facing the former president as he weighs a 2024 presidential bid.
Got a question about politics? Submit it here. After 3 p.m. weekdays, return to this space and we’ll address what’s on the mind of readers.
10:05 AM: On our radar: Side effect of divisive politics? Unaffiliated voter numbers rise.
With a little over two weeks to go before the midterm elections, both parties are nervously watching to see which way voters not affiliated with either Democrats or Republicans will choose to cast their ballots — or if they vote at all.
The Post’s Rhonda Colvin writes that if they choose to go to the polls, numbers suggest nonpartisan voters could swing close races. Per Rhonda:
A January Gallup poll found they make up 42 percent of Americans. That’s well ahead of the 29 percent who say they are Democrats and 27 percent who identify as Republican.
Unaffiliated, or nonpartisan voters, are often broadly called independents. But they should not be confused with members of the American Independent Party or the Independent American Party, which are party registration choices for voters in some states. Despite their names, those are considered minor parties that historically lean further right.
You can read Rhonda’s full story here.
9:45 AM: Analysis: The GOP’s attempt to flip the abortion issue
The Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade provided Democrats with at least a momentary shot in the arm this summer.
The Post’s Aaron Blake writes that the question has been whether it would carry through to the general election. Per Aaron:
Republicans and conservatives increasingly believe they might mitigate the issue — in part by keeping focused on other issues like the economy, but also by pitching Democrats as being extreme on abortion.
But what does the evidence show on the latter?
A case in point in recent days was a Republican poll shared widely in conservative circles. The headline from the National Review read, “On Abortion, Voters View Democrats as More Extreme Than Republicans by Two to One.”
But that’s quite misleading. What the poll actually tested were two views on abortion — “allowing abortions up until nine months of pregnancy for any reason,” or “restricting abortions to only in cases of rape, incest and when the life of the mother is in danger” — without ascribing either to a political party. It found 57 percent viewed the former as more extreme, while 29 percent picked the latter.
You can read Aaron’s full analysis here.
9:25 AM: The latest: Pelosi attends Crimea forum in U.S. show of solidarity with Ukraine
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is expressing the United States’ unwavering support for Ukraine days after Republicans suggested that they would cut off humanitarian and military aid to the Eastern European country in its war with Russia if the GOP wins control of the House in the midterm elections.
The Post’s Eugene Scott reports that Pelosi is representing the United States in Zagreb, Croatia, at the First Parliamentary Summit of the International Crimea Platform, where bilateral meetings will focus on Russia’s aggression against Ukraine since the invasion in February as well as its illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014.
“As Speaker, it is my privilege to join our European allies and other partners from around the globe in Croatia to deliver an unmistakable statement of our solidarity with the Ukrainian people,” she said in a statement late Sunday. “Vladimir Putin is waging an unprovoked, all-out assault on Ukraine: from the ongoing occupation of Crimea to his attempt to annex additional territories to his desperate and escalating targeting of civilians and civilian infrastructure.”
“This week, America joins our democratic partners to reaffirm our pledge to stand with the Ukrainian people in their fight for freedom and to hold Russia accountable — until victory is won,” Pelosi added.
You can read Eugene’s full story here.
9:14 AM: On our radar: Split-ticket voters loom large in midterms
Ticket-splitters, on the decline for years as the country has grown ever more polarized, could be pivotal this year in several key battlegrounds, according to polls that show conspicuous gaps in performance between gubernatorial and Senate candidates of the same party.
With a focus on the Senate and gubernatorial races in Pennsylvania and Georgia, The Post’s Hannah Knowles reports that Republicans and Democrats are both fighting for these voters in the final weeks of the election, appealing to moderation and sometimes distancing themselves from their party’s other pick at the top of the ticket rather than working together. Per Hannah:
Strategists point to uneven spending, the power of incumbency and the candidates themselves to explain the disparities. Several cases underscore how GOP nominees who are polarizing or untested have complicated the party’s efforts to make the midterms a simple referendum on the state of the country, the economy and views of the party in power, some said.
“These people, they’d like to provide a correction on Biden. They’d like to provide a correction on the Democrats,” said Republican strategist Sarah Longwell, who conducts swing-voter focus groups and has been hearing many ticket-splitters. “And the question is whether they can find candidates that they can stomach to do that.”
You can read Hannah’s full story here.
8:56 AM: Noted: New Ohio polling shows a very tight Senate race
Two new polls out of Ohio show a Senate race between Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) and Republican J.D. Vance that couldn’t be tighter.
Ryan and Vance both draw 46 percent in a Spectrum News-Siena College poll of likely voters.
They both get 47 percent in a Marist poll among registered voters who say they definitely plan to vote.
In the Marist poll, independents split evenly between the Democrat and Republican — with 16 percent of registered independents still undecided with just more than two weeks remaining until Election Day.
Ryan and Vance are seeking to succeed retiring Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio).
8:31 AM: Take a look: A Phillies fan arrives at the White House
The World Series is now set: It will feature a matchup between the National League’s Philadelphia Phillies and the American League’s Houston Astros. There’s little doubt which team will be more heavily cheered from the White House.
First lady Jill Biden returned there from Delaware on Sunday night sporting a Phillies jersey, just hours after the team defeated the San Diego Padres to advance to the Fall Classic. Jill Biden grew up in the Philadelphia area, and President Biden has often referred to her as a “Philly girl.”
8:17 AM: Analysis: Murkowski and Peltola aren’t running as a ticket — but might as well be
They aren’t running as a ticket — but they could.
Writing in The Early 202, The Post’s Leigh Ann Caldwell and Theodoric Meyer say that despite being from different parties, Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski and Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola of Alaska are finding more draws them together than drives them apart. Per our colleagues:
They are running as moderates who support abortion rights and are independent-minded consensus builders focused on Alaska’s needs, not the partisan and culture wars playing out in the Lower 48.
“Mary is a woman whose heart is as grounded in Alaska as anybody you’re going to find,” Murkowski told reporters Friday after speaking at the Alaska Federation of Natives conference, wearing a gold-colored, paisley-patterned kuspuk, common Alaska indigenous clothing Peltola gave her last year.
Asked if she would rank Peltola first on her ballot next month in Alaska’s new ranked-choice voting system, Murkowski paused. After a full 18 seconds she said: “Yeah, I am.” She then mumbled, “I’m going to get in so much trouble.”
You can read the full analysis here.
7:56 AM: On our radar: Warnock stays positive on the stump, hits Walker in ads
There are two sides to the reelection bid of Sen. Raphael G. Warnock (D-Ga.): His campaign has pumped out a barrage of negative ads against Republican challenger Herschel Walker. But on the campaign trail, Warnock is projecting an upbeat, positive message.
Reporting from Jonesboro, Ga., The Post’s Sabrina Rodriguez writes that the contrasting nature of Warnock’s campaign illustrates the balancing act the senator has tried to pull off in the final weeks of his reelection bid in a purple state. Per Sabrina:
The race has remained tight, despite a constant stream of headlines about Walker’s personal life, as conservative Georgians have rallied to the defense of the Heisman Trophy winner from the University of Georgia. National Republicans are putting up a fierce fight for the seat, which they need to gain control of the Senate, and in recent days, polls have shown voters concerned about the economy and crime moving toward the GOP.
But Warnock has largely stuck to his strategy of avoiding directly attacking Walker on the campaign trail, focusing his stump speeches on his spirit of service, his willingness to work across the aisle and his efforts to represent all Georgians.
You can read Sabrina’s full story here.
7:25 AM: Noted: In Ohio, Vance faces backlash in Ukrainian community over war stance
Irena Stolar has voted Republican for over half a century, from Richard M. Nixon to Donald Trump. But in the midterms, Stolar, 73, said she will cast her first vote for a Democrat.
Originally from Ukraine, Stolar refuses to support J.D. Vance, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in Ohio, who has said he wants to cut off aid to the war-torn country, The Post’s Cara McGoogan writes in a story reported from Parma, Ohio. Per Cara:
Stolar was one of 15 Republican voters or elected officials The Washington Post interviewed this month in Parma, a city of 80,000 near Cleveland that has one of the largest Ukrainian American populations in the state. Many said they would not vote for Vance. In a tight contest, such sentiments could have far-reaching implications.
Polls show that Vance and Rep. Tim Ryan (D) are in close competition as the race nears its conclusion, and with Democrats trying to retain their narrow Senate majority, the stakes are especially high. There are about 41,000 people with Ukrainian heritage in Ohio, according to the Census Bureau, and many have felt the effects of Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine more acutely and personally than most Americans.
You can read the full story here.
7:00 AM: On our radar: Trump Organization’s criminal trial on fraud charges starts today
The Trump Organization, former president Donald Trump’s namesake company, is set to go on trial Monday for alleged tax crimes — the result of a lengthy investigation into the company and its executives related to fraud and other potentially illegal business practices.
Reporting from New York, The Post’s Shayna Jacobs writes that Trump is not charged personally and the portion of the investigation for which he still could face criminal charges is not yet concluded by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s investigators. Per Shayna:
Bragg has promised to announce the results of the remaining parts of the Trump probe when it is finalized, but to date, the only charges filed have been against the Trump Organization, its subsidiary Trump Payroll Corporation and its longtime chief financial officer, Allen Weisselberg.
Weisselberg pleaded guilty in August to 15 counts tied to an alleged longtime fraud scheme within the organization and is required to testify in the criminal trial as part of a plea agreement.
The jury selection scheduled to begin Monday in New York State Supreme Court in Manhattan could involve hundreds of potential panelists.
You can read Shayna’s full story here.
6:39 AM: Noted: Homegrown campaign against Sen. Grassley energizes Democrats
Iowa Democrats took a beating in 2020: Republicans won up and down the ballot, handily carrying the presidential race, retaining a U.S. Senate seat and expanding their majority in the state House.
The Post’s Dylan Wells writes that national Democrats have, in turn, largely walked away from the state. With Iowa’s Republican elder statesman Sen. Charles E. Grassley on the ballot for his eighth term, his Democratic challenger, Michael Franken, has not received money or support from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. Grassley’s seat is considered so safe that national Republicans also have largely left the race alone. Per Dylan:
That lack of investment from above might be a blessing in disguise for Franken.
A recent Des Moines Register Iowa Poll from legendary pollster J. Ann Selzer raised eyebrows in Iowa and beyond with results showing Grassley leading Franken among likely voters 46 percent to 43 percent — within the margin of error. The same poll in July had Grassley up by eight points.
Some Iowa Democrats point to Franken’s freedom to run the race he wants, untethered to expectations and directives from the national party and outside consultants, as being key to his success so far. In interviews with The Washington Post, Democrats described an environment in previous elections in which local knowledge was eschewed in favor of money and campaign staffers associated with the national party.
You can read Dylan’s full story, reported from Council Bluffs, Iowa, here.
6:37 AM: On our radar: Vulnerable House Democrats defend the middle
In between campaign stops, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) is taking calls from fellow House Democrats seeking her support for leadership races upon their return to Capitol Hill. It’s a dumbfounding request for Slotkin, who may not even be serving in Congress next year.
The Post’s Marianna Sotomayor writes that Slotkin and 38 of her colleagues belong to an exclusive group no House Democrat wants to join: vulnerable members who represent the most competitive swing districts in the country. Per Marianna:
Most of them paved the way to Democrats’ regaining the House majority in 2018, when the party flipped 41 seats by promising to protect health-care access and restore faith that government can function after President Donald Trump took office.
As the handful of members in true swing districts, front line Democrats represent a snapshot of America that often rebukes the extremes within either party. The makeup of these districts, however, can prove volatile in midterm election years, where voters often reject the sitting president’s party.
A recent CNN poll showed Democrats on the defensive, with 48 percent of likely voters living in competitive House districts supporting the Republican candidate and 43 percent backing the Democrat.
You can read Marianna’s full story here.
6:36 AM: Noted: Cheney criticizes Youngkin, others campaigning for election deniers
Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) is criticizing Republicans who have hit the campaign trail for GOP election deniers, calling it “indefensible” to boost candidates who have promoted former president Donald Trump’s baseless allegations that the 2020 presidential election was stolen.
The Post’s Amy B Wang reports that Cheney, who for nearly two years has sounded the alarm on Trump’s false statements and their deleterious effects on both the Republican Party and American democracy, specifically called out Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R), who traveled last week to Arizona to hold a rally with GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake, a prominent election denier. Per Amy:
Several other Republicans who previously tried to distance themselves from Trump’s “big lie” — including former vice president Mike Pence and former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley — have also recently campaigned with pro-Trump candidates who have questioned or denied the results of the 2020 election.
“I think they are really indefensible decisions,” Cheney said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday. “I think that Glenn Youngkin has done a good job as governor of Virginia, but nobody should be out advocating for the election of people who will not honor the sanctity of our elections process. And, you know, people who do that are in fact putting politics ahead of the Constitution and ahead of the country.”
You can read Amy’s full story here.
6:35 AM: The latest: U.S. economy is probably rebounding just before midterms
The U.S. economy is expected to have grown robustly in a sharp rebound from the first half of the year, but most Americans are unlikely to notice anything about the turnaround.
The Post’s Abha Bhattarai writes that persistent inflation weighs heavily on economic growth and household budgets and has become a key flash point ahead of the midterm elections. Per Abha:
A strong reading on the next gross domestic product report, scheduled to be released Thursday, would be welcome news for Democrats, who have been struggling to convince voters they have a plan to contain rising prices and put the economy on more stable footing.
Although the newest numbers are likely to look like improvements on paper, economists say they don’t reflect major changes in the economy, which could be headed for a recession in the next year.
“This is going to look better than the previous two GDP reports, but conditions on the ground haven’t changed very much,” said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Action Forum and a former director of the Congressional Budget Office. “Inflation is still taking a toll. Concerns about the Fed’s tightening remain. Things are not substantively different.”
You can read the full story here.
6:34 AM: Noted: Right-wing roadshow promotes Christian nationalism before midterms
Since April of last year, the ReAwaken America Tour has brought hard-line election deniers, anti-vaccine doctors, self-proclaimed prophets and conspiracy theorists to enthusiastic crowds across the country.
Reporting from Manheim, Pa., where thousands waited to be baptized in a black plastic animal trough, The Post’s Annie Gowen writes that the central message is that America’s White, evangelical Christian way of life is under threat from the globalist cabal on the “woke” left. Per Annie:
The traveling carnival of misinformation merges entertainment, politics and theology and makes an existential argument to those attending: The debate is no longer about Republican vs. Democrat, they say, it’s about good vs. evil. And it’s time to pick a side.
Since its inception, the tour has been denounced by mainstream religious leaders because of its extremist views. Its organizers have been forced to move venues twice — in New York and Washington state — because of community concerns. The Anti-Defamation League has targeted it in a report.
This stop at a sports complex in Pennsylvania was the penultimate of the midterm season organizers hope will result in a “red wave” of victory for Republicans.
You can read Annie’s full story here.