Pollster’s warning to Peter Dutton: Voice ‘antics’ could bite come election time

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The Opposition’s “antics” on the Voice to Parliament could help sink the referendum, but would alienate the very voters it needs to return to power, a leading pollster says. Kos Samaras, RedBridge director and former Labor Party campaigner, has warned a new poll suggesting support for the Voice has weakened highlights a “great deal of uncertainty” over the proposal, something he said could be effectively exploited before the vote. He said confusion and economic pain could hamper the “Yes” camp, but remains confident a “well crafted, nuanced” campaign will succeed, particularly if it galvanises voters under 40. Some 3,618 eligible voters were surveyed in a Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, published on Tuesday.

It showed support for the Voice among respondents was 47 per cent, down from 53 per cent in September. Opposition to the proposal had climbed from 29 per cent to 30 per cent, and the undecided cohort grew four points to 23 per cent.

Resolve Monitor Poll showing a slip in support for the Voice to Parliament.

‘Double-edged sword’

“Detail is important, because there are versions of the voice that I think some Australians could support and there are other versions which they wouldn’t support,” Opposition leader Peter Dutton said on Tuesday “I support practical reconciliation, an improvement in the lives of Indigenous Australians. I don’t want to see another bureaucracy.” Indigenous leader and “yes” campaigner Noel Pearson has dismissed the call for more detail as a diversion, adding that a referendum failure would permanently harm reconciliation efforts. The Liberal Party lost a number of seats to , and its approach to the Voice could give them a new “rallying point” in seats the party needs to reclaim government. “By being seen to be playing around with this issue – in a certain way siding with those who are trying to oppose it, but not really siding with them – they will further harm their prospects in getting back these teal seats,” Mr Samaras said.

“There’s a bit of a bit of a double-edged sword… You could sink it, but that’s not going to really improve your chances in government. It’s going to make your situation drastically worse.”

Opposition leader Peter Dutton (left) is yet to reveal the Liberal Party’s position on the Voice, while National Party leader David Littleproud has confirmed his party will vote against it.

‘Seed doubt’

Mr Samaras warned the “Yes” camp’s biggest weakness was confusion after the Resolve poll found the vast majority of respondents (63 per cent) had heard of the Voice, but did not understand it and would struggle to explain it. “[That’s] effectively a manifestation of what we’ve been picking up in our research; there is a great deal of uncertainty around the detail,” he said. “That confusion is where those running the No campaign will be able to capitalise and seed doubt.” , saying we “can’t have these conversations” while crime prevention remains inadequately resourced. Mr Samaras said economic pain gripping households, including imminent increases to people’s mortgages, will be a “factor” hindering the Yes campaign. “We know that when people are under immense financial pressure, they tend to not look beyond the horizon and only really worry about what’s going on now,” he said. “They’re not going to pay any attention to it … then it’s referendum day, they’ll turn up to vote … not completely across it. If they’ve only picked up the negative narratives, which is pretty easy to do on social media, it just makes the Yes campaign a lot more difficult.” Labor frontbencher Bill Shorten dismissed concern on support for the voice going backwards. “The principle in the voice is that you would consult First Nations people about policies affecting them rather than just inflicting them upon them,” Mr Shorten said on Tuesday. “Empowerment works, giving people some say and control in their own lives. That’s not a left-wing or a right-wing idea. I just think it’s a good idea.” A referendum on enshrining the Voice in the constitution will be held later this year.

With additional reporting by AAP.