Poll shows tight race ahead of Alberta election with NDP holding slight lead
Alberta #Alberta
A new poll conducted by Leger shows Alberta’s two main political parties are in for a tight race heading into next year’s election, with the NDP holding a slight lead.
The poll, conducted from Nov. 24 to 28, found that 47 per cent of decided voters favour Rachel Notley’s NDP, while 44 per cent plan to vote for Danielle Smith’s UCP. Leger surveyed 1,001 people, including approximately 851 who were categorized as a decided voter. A margin of error was not reported.
“What we’re seeing is very consistent support for the NDP and the UCP over the past six or eight months or so. They’ve been kind of trading places in terms of leading the popular vote,” said Leger’s executive vice-president Ian large. “It truly is a neck-and-neck horse race, and we’re not seeing either of the two of them breaking out in any significant way.”
The gap between decided voters widens in three geographical areas, with the NDP having 51 per cent support in Calgary compared to the UCP’s 41 per cent among decided voters. The NDP also leads in Edmonton, with 55 per cent support to the UCP’s 33 per cent. However, the UCP has a large majority of support in “other Alberta,” with 59 per cent of decided voters saying they would vote for the governing party compared to 32 per cent favouring the official Opposition.
University of Calgary political scientist Lisa Young said the numbers in Calgary could cause concern within the UCP caucus.
“I think that there are a lot of UCP MLAs in Calgary who know that their seats are in play, that they are going to have a fight on their hands to get re-elected,” said Young.
Young pointed out the survey was conducted before the Alberta sovereignty act was tabled. She said that bill could cause more difficulties for the UCP in Calgary.
The survey found that — before the bill was tabled — 32 per cent of Alberta respondents felt the act was necessary to stand up to the federal government. A total of 29 per cent of Calgarians shared that sentiment.
“There’s no great enthusiasm for it in Calgary, and that was before people saw it,” said Young.
Large said UCP changes to Alberta Health Services management and the sovereignty act were not popular.
There was, however, more support for Smith’s recently announced affordability package that will see approximately $2.8 billion handed out to Albertans to fight inflation.
A total of 49 per cent of Albertans and 49 per cent of Calgarians felt the plan would improve the lives of Albertans. However, a large portion of people also said they believe those measures were introduced to “buy votes.” In Calgary, 61 per cent of respondents held that sentiment, the highest of any of the three regions.
“I think that when you take this together with what we see about voting intention, it sort of suggests that people are content to cash the checks, understand that they’re helpful, but still see them as a fairly cynical political ploy,” said Young, noting the policy doesn’t appear to be landing as positively in battleground Calgary.
Large said close to half of the respondents supported the affordability plan and few people strongly opposed it, showing the government’s messaging around the initiative has found its mark. He also noted inflation is a key concern among voters not only in Alberta but across the country.
“Clearly, it is both. So, yeah, it’s a good thing, but it’s maybe a little bit self-serving,” said Large.
He said that overall, both parties will be able to find positives in the poll. Large said the NDP will take solace in the fact the UCP did not gain a large bump by electing a new leader, while the UCP will be able to point to strong, continued support outside Calgary and Edmonton.
dshort@postmedia.com