POLITICO Playbook: Larry Summers plays the skunk at the Covid relief party

Larry Summers put down on paper what many liberal wonks have been whispering about for weeks: that President Joe Biden’s stimulus bill may be too big. | Rob Kim/Getty Images

LITERALLY BREAKING OVERNIGHT — Vote-a-rama as of 5:35 a.m. … @caitlinzemma: “Senate PASSES the budget resolution Democrats can use to speed passage of Biden’s $1.9T coronavirus plan, 50-51, with VP Harris breaking the tie. The House could take it up as soon as today. Biden meets with House Democratic leaders and committee chairs later this a.m.”

WHAT BRIAN DEESE IS READING: this provocative LARRY SUMMERS op-ed in WaPo about the Biden stimulus plan that’s being circulated on the left like samizdat.

Summers, the former Treasury secretary for BILL CLINTON and top economic adviser to BARACK OBAMA, puts down on paper what many liberal wonks have been whispering about for weeks: that President JOE BIDEN’S stimulus bill may be too big, that its overall cost could sacrifice other progressive priorities and that it could harm the economy next year, when Democrats will be defending narrow congressional majorities in the midterms.

For weeks the key economic talking point from the White House has been that the risk of going too small is worse than the risk of going too big. Now comes Summers who says … that might not be true. “[M]uch of the policy discussion has not fully reckoned with the magnitude of what is being debated,” he wrote.

Summers cops to the fact that the 2009 stimulus, which he helped craft, wasn’t big enough to fill the hole in the economy back then. The shortfall was $80 billion a month and the Obama stimulus only filled about half of that.

But in 2021, after the December package of $900 billion, the economy will face a $20-$50 billion-a-month hole. The Biden plan would fill it with some $150 billion a month.

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Why does this matter? Two big reasons:

1) A $1.9 trillion stimulus could overheat the economy. Summers warns of “inflationary pressures of a kind we have not seen in a generation, with consequences for the value of the dollar and financial stability.” He notes that these unintended consequences are barely being debated or acknowledged by the White House and Congress, adding that “[s]timulus measures of the magnitude contemplated are steps into the unknown.”

2) The stimulus could wreck Biden’s larger agenda — the one progressives really care about. There are no other long-term structural reforms in the Biden Covid relief package, which is designed only to address the immediate needs of battling the pandemic and repairing the economy.

Summers, who is a boogeyman to progressives, is now in the unusual role of warning that the passage of Biden’s plan could jeopardize the left’s priorities: “If the stimulus proposal is enacted, Congress will have committed 15 percent of GDP with essentially no increase in public investment to address” things like infrastructure, preschool education and renewable energy.

“After resolving the coronavirus crisis, how will political and economic space be found for the public investments that should be the nation’s highest priority?” he added.

Summers isn’t the only economist to raise an alarm about the risks of a too-large stimulus. Buried in a mostly rosy analysis from Brookings this week was a similar warning about the risks to the economy.

A few Democrats pointedly noted to us this week that it would be a crushing irony for their party to over-learn the lessons of 2009 with a stimulus package so big that it crowds out major progressive priorities — and leads to an economic downturn before the midterms.

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BIDEN’S FRIDAY — The president and VP KAMALA HARRIS will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 9:15 a.m. and meet with House Democratic leaders and committee chairs at 9:45 a.m. in the Oval Office. At 11:45 a.m., Biden will speak about the economy and the relief package in the State Dining Room, with Harris and Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN attending. Harris and Yellen will meet virtually with local Black Chambers of Commerce members at 3 p.m. Biden will leave the White House at 4:55 p.m. and arrive in Wilmington, Del., at 5:50 p.m.

— The White House Covid-19 response team and public health officials will brief at 11 a.m. Press secretary JEN PSAKI and JARED BERNSTEIN will brief at 1 p.m.

PHOTO OF THE DAY: Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) is sworn in as the newest member of the Senate on Thursday by VP Kamala Harris, whose former seat he’s filling. | Greg Nash-Pool/Getty Images

FRIDAY WATCH — Eugene and Tara review the week’s top news videos, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s Instagram Live, Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s commentary on Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, Biden’s meeting with GOP senators and MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell’s jaw-dropping interview on Newsmax.

JOIN US! The GOP is figuring out its post-Trump future. The Jan. 6 insurrection has exposed divisions over the party’s direction and the power balance among different factions. Join Eugene today at 9 a.m. for a conversation with former Rep. Denver Riggleman (R-Va.) to get his take on the party’s future and where moderate Republicans fit in. Register here to watch live and submit questions

THE WHITE HOUSE

— “‘We’ve learned to love the guy’: How Biden charmed the left,” by Laura Barrón-López and Eugene Daniels: “Two weeks into his presidency, Biden has collaborated with the left, co-opted it and, for the time being, won it over. Progressives in Congress and across different policy organizations say Biden and his team aggressively reached out to them from the moment it became clear he’d be the Democratic nominee through his time in office.

“It could fall apart as Biden’s attention drifts toward more complicated issues that may require Republican buy-in. But, so far, what was once seen as a vulnerable flank for his presidency has been surprisingly secure.”

— “‘Where’s Hunter?’ Writing a tell-all,” by Natasha Korecki and Theodoric Meyer: “It … comes as Hunter Biden is under federal investigation for his tax affairs. And though he is taking on a higher public profile just as that legal drama heats up, the Biden family on Thursday said they stood by his decision to pen the book.”

CONGRESS

MORE VOTE-A-RAMA DEETS — “Senate approves budget to sideline GOP on Biden’s $1.9T stimulus,” by Caitlin Emma and Jennifer Scholtes

— NYT: “By a voice vote, senators backed an amendment from Senator Joni Ernst, Republican of Iowa, to ‘prohibit the increase of the federal minimum wage during a global pandemic.’ It was a signal that the wage hike would be difficult to pass in an evenly split Senate, where at least one Democrat, Senator Joe Manchin III of West Virginia, is already on record opposing it.”

GOP’S QANON DRAMA FAR FROM OVER: Rep. JIMMY GOMEZ (D-Calif.) told reporters Thursday he still plans to force a vote to evict Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.) from the House — a step too far for Democratic leaders wary of the precedent it would set. “I’m waiting, now, waiting for the right time but I’m committed to bringing it up, and I said that to leadership that there needs to be a vote sooner rather or later on this but I’m gonna do it,” Gomez said right after Greene’s semi-apology and before the House voted to strip her of her committee assignments. Gomez can force an expulsion vote on his own because it’s considered a “privileged” matter in House parlance. Gomez lays out his rationale in an NBC op-ed

THE STEP BACK — “How Kevin McCarthy fought off a party revolt,” by Melanie Zanona: “He was going to try to save Rep. Liz Cheney, the No. 3 House Republican who was at risk of losing her leadership post over her vote to impeach Donald Trump. And McCarthy was also going to give frustrated members a forum for their voices to be heard.”

— “Republicans worry their big tent will mean big problems in 2022 elections,” WaPo: “House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) has pinned his hopes for reclaiming the majority in 2022 on never having to choose between the contradictory factions in his own party, no matter how deep the divisions appear.”

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — PROBLEM SOLVERS CALL FOR STAND-ALONE VACCINE BILL: The 56-member bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus today will call on House Democratic leaders to allow a stand-alone vote on $160 billion for vaccine distribution, according to people familiar with the discussions. The group, which took the position supporting the roll call outside of reconciliation and broader pandemic negotiations, will argue that leadership needs to pass something quickly, perhaps before the second impeachment trial of DONALD TRUMP begins next week and sucks up all the oxygen in Washington.

It’s unclear whether Democratic leadership would go along. Their sole focus has been on passing a budget to move Biden’s $1.9 trillion pandemic package. The White House has also said publicly that it doesn’t want to split the proposal in half. Still, group members are prepared to argue that the idea should garner bipartisan support and they cannot afford to wait on vaccine distribution when thousands of Americans are dying daily. And it looks like they have allies in the conservative Blue Dog Coalition, per Jon Allen at NBC.

— “10 Senate Republicans lay out concerns in letter to Biden after meeting on Covid-19 relief proposal,” CNN

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IMPEACHMENT II (FEB. 8)

— “Trump’s allies fear the impeachment trial could be a PR nightmare,” by Gabby Orr and Meridith McGraw: “Allies of former President Donald Trump are imploring his impeachment team to avoid one specific topic when they defend the ex-president at his Senate trial next week: the deadly riot that unfolded at the U.S. Capitol.

— AP: “Trump rejects Dems’ request to testify at impeachment trial”

PANDEMIC

TRACKER: The U.S. reported 3,705 Covid-19 deaths and 124,000 new coronavirus cases Thursday.

HERE WE GO — “Johnson & Johnson submits application for Covid-19 vaccine to FDA,” Stat: “If given the green light by the agency, J&J’s vaccine will likely start being used in late February or early March, though initial supplies are expected to be extremely limited.”

FINALLY SOME GOOD NEWS — “The Pandemic Is in Tenuous Retreat,” The Atlantic: “The good news in COVID-19 data continued this week, as new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths all dropped. For the seven-day period running January 28 to February 3, weekly new cases were down more than 16 percent over the previous week, and dropped below 1 million for the first time since the week of November 5. This is still an astonishing number of new cases a week, but far better than the nearly 1.8 million cases reported the week of January 14. Tests also declined nationally, but by less than 3 percent, nowhere near enough to explain the steep drop in cases.”

— “Biden health team hatches new vaccine strategy as variant threat builds,” by Sarah Owermohle and David Lim: “The Food and Drug Administration is preparing to release new standards for Covid-19 vaccine booster shots, tests and drugs in the coming weeks — all aimed at preparing the country to beat back fast-spreading virus variants that are less susceptible to existing shots.”

— “People in the LGBTQ community more vulnerable to Covid-19, CDC warns,” CNN: “The LGBTQ community experiences more health disparities compared to their straight counterparts, in part due to sexual stigma and discrimination. These health disparities make them more susceptible, a CDC team said in a study published in the agency’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report Thursday.”

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JAN. 6 FALLOUT

KNOWING THE INSURRECTIONISTS — “Arrested in Capitol Riot: Organized Militants and a Horde of Radicals,” NYT: “In the weeks since the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, federal prosecutors have announced criminal charges against more than 175 people — less than a quarter of those involved in the melee, but enough to provide a rough portrait of the mob and the sprawling investigation into its actions.”

— “‘Politics isn’t about the weird worship of one dude’: Sasse shoots down Nebraska censure motion,” by Matthew Choi … The video statement

— “National Guard’s Post-Riot Deployment Cost at Least $480 Million,” Bloomberg

— “Bipartisan support emerges for domestic-terror bills as experts warn threat may last ‘10 to 20 years,’” WaPo: “An apparent bipartisan majority of the House Homeland Security Committee on Thursday endorsed the idea of new laws to address domestic terrorism in the wake of last month’s riot at the U.S. Capitol, as experts warned such internal threats would plague the country for decades to come.”

Of all the profiles of Jan. 6 rioters, this one jumped off the page … “The Misogynistic ‘Dating Coach’ Who Was Charged in the Capitol Riot,” by NYT’s Sarah Maslin Nir: “For $150, Brad Holiday’s customers could purchase and download a package of dating tips and tricks he called his ‘Attraction Accelerator.’ The batch of files featured advice from Mr. Holiday, a self-styled Manhattan dating coach, about things like the best facial serums and pickup lines, and his thoughts on the viciousness of the opposite sex.

“But tucked between videos denigrating women and reviews of height-boosting shoes were other guides: how to defeat Communists, expose what he claimed were government pedophilia cabals, and properly wield a Glock.

“On Jan. 20, F.B.I. agents arrested the man, whose real name is Samuel Fisher, outside his apartment on the Upper East Side in connection with his involvement in the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. Stashed in his Chevrolet Tahoe, parked on East 88th Street, investigators found a shotgun, machetes and more than a thousand rounds of ammunition, according to court records.

“Like many of the roughly 175 people arrested after the riot, Mr. Fisher left a trail of social media posts about his exploits. ‘People died,’ but it was great, Mr. Fisher wrote online after the attack, according to court records. ‘Seeing cops literally run … was the coolest thing I’ve ever seen in my life.’”

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POLICY CORNER

— “Biden seeks to restore ‘badly damaged’ refugee resettlement program,” WaPo: “Biden said Thursday that he would raise the annual cap on refugee admissions to 125,000 for the fiscal year that starts Oct. 1, a figure more in line with the 2017 cap of 110,000 set by President Obama a few months before he left office, and promptly slashed by Trump, who won election campaigning on an anti-immigrant, anti-refugee agenda.”

— “Biden Supports Cancelling Student Debt, Expresses Openness To Executive Action,” Forbes

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

WHOA — “Anne Sacoolas, accused of killing British teen Harry Dunn, was working for U.S. intelligence, lawyer says in court,” WaPo: “The assertion reopens questions about whether Sacoolas had diplomatic immunity when she fled Britain for her home in Virginia in August 2019 — though the Trump administration denied Britain’s request to extradite Sacoolas, and last week the Biden administration said it considered that decision final.”

— “Biden Signals Break With Trump Foreign Policy in a Wide-Ranging State Dept. Speech,” by NYT’s David Sanger and Eric Schmitt

— “Trump Is Gone, But Europe Still Needs Some Space,” N.Y. Mag: “Major European leaders breathed a collective sigh of relief when it became clear that Joe Biden would actually take over as president of the United States. But the continent is not about to act as if the past four years didn’t happen. The European Union is seeking to be less dependent on, and less deferential to, Washington than it has ever been before.”

— “Pro-China propaganda campaign exploits U.S. divisions in videos emphasizing Capitol attack,” WaPo: “Chinese propaganda videos have gloated over the Jan. 6 assault on the U.S. Capitol and subsequent impeachment proceedings, portraying them as signs of the decline of ‘American-style Democracy,’ according to a research report published Thursday.

“One video pushed on social media by a Chinese propaganda group said the United States was ‘completely running naked in front of the world’ after a mob supporting President Donald Trump breached the Capitol. A second video called the country ‘permanently damaged’ and ‘a failed state.’”

TV TONIGHT — PBS’ “Washington Week” guest-hosted by Lisa Desjardins: Jonathan Martin, Alexi McCammond, Jake Sherman and Sabrina Siddiqui.

SUNDAY SO FAR …

SPOTTED at Adrienne Arsht’s virtual surprise birthday party hosted by Robert Pullen and Luke Frazier, with special performances by Ben Pattison and Nova Payton: Anthony Fauci and Christine Grady, Ken Burns, Barbara Barrett, Bret and Amy Baier, Barbie Allbritton, Patrick Steel and Lee Satterfield, Fred Kempe and Pam Meyer, Tom Nides, Tim and Anita McBride, Capricia and Rob Marshall, Henry Timms, Manny Diaz, Bart Friedman, Chris Liddell, Bob Barnett and Rita Braver, Barbara Harrison, Paige and Bain Ennis, Jane Hall and Doug Lute.

SPOTTED on Thursday night at a Zoom birthday party for Michael Kives, the former CAA agent who now runs K5 Global: Mark Burnett, second gentleman Doug Emhoff, Bill and Hillary Clinton, Gayle King, Katy Perry, David Geffen, Jim Coulter, Evan Spiegel, Dina Powell McCormick, Brian and Veronica Grazer, Gwyneth Paltrow, Aryeh Bourkoff, Lloyd and Laura Blankfein, Bobby Kotick, Jessica Alba and Greg Lemkow.

MEDIAWATCH

PENCE’S PIVOT — “Mike Pence is starting a podcast,” by Gabby Orr: “Mike Pence is returning to his radio roots after a 22-year hiatus from the airwaves. The former vice president will launch a podcast in the coming months hosted by the Young America’s Foundation, a conservative youth organization dating back to the 1960s.

“Pence will join YAF as the group’s first Ronald Reagan presidential scholar, and is expected to become a regular member of its campus lecture circuit once it is safe to resume such events, which have been halted by the Covid-19 pandemic.”

AT THE GRAY LADY — “NY Times Reporter Rukmini Callimachi Moving to Higher Ed Beat After ‘Caliphate’ Collapse,” The Daily Beast: “Rukmini Callimachi, formerly one of the paper’s highest-profile reporters on ISIS and extremism in the Middle East, has been re-assigned to cover higher education, multiple people familiar with the matter confirmed to The Daily Beast.

“The plum new beat will see Callimachi covering Ivy League schools and the goings on at college campuses across the country. The move follows an internal investigation that determined her critically acclaimed podcast relied on a source who fabricated much of his story.”

— “New York Times promises ‘results’ to staff angry about allegations of a reporter’s racist slur,” WaPo: “Tempers are once again flaring between staff and management at the New York Times, this time over the publication’s handling of inappropriate comments allegedly made by high-profile science reporter Donald G. McNeil, Jr. during a trip to Peru for high school students in 2019.

“In response to a letter from staffers ‘outraged’ because they believe the paper didn’t take the McNeil incident seriously enough, top managers replied late Wednesday that they “largely agree” with staff sentiment and promised to ‘examine the way we manage behavioral problems among members of the staff,’ according to an email obtained by The Washington Post.”

— Amanda Hayes is now media booker at POLITICO. She previously was an executive assistant at MSNBC.

PILLOW FIGHT: Gun-control advocate and school shooting survivor DAVID HOGG made waves with his announcement on Twitter that he and a business partner are launching a “progressive pillow company” to take on MyPillow and its Trump-backing CEO MIKE LINDELL. “Mike isn’t going to know what hit him — this pillow fight is just getting started,” Hogg wrote.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Evan Dixon, outgoing press secretary for Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.) and the Senate HELP Committee, has been elected president of the Senate Press Secretaries Association. Mike Inacay, comms director for Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii), was elected VP. Other members elected to the executive board are: Ty Bofferding, Tom Brandt, Rich Davidson, Erin Heeter, Roy Loewenstein, Molly Morrissey, Arielle Mueller and Natalie Yezbick.

— The Republican State Leadership Committee is announcing its senior leadership team for the 2021-22 cycle: Dee Duncan will be president and executive director, Edith Jorge-Tuñon will be deputy executive director, Joy Lee will be general counsel, Robyn Knecht will be finance director, Andrew Romeo will be comms director, Kamilah Prince will be political director, Matt Vollenweider will be research director, Annie Moore will be digital director, Peter Barnes will be caucus director, Casey Dietrich will be policy director/SGLF deputy executive director, Andrew Wynne will be JFI VP, Justina Hulen will be events director and Caitlyn Schneeweis will be operations director.

— Marsha (Catron) Espinosa and Sarah Peck are joining DHS as assistant secretary for public affairs and comms director. Espinosa previously was COS for Rep. Linda Sánchez (D-Calif.). Peck previously worked in the DNC war room during the 2020 presidential election.

— Blakely Wall is now finance director for Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Pa.). She most recently was Midwest and South finance assistant at the DSCC.

STAFFING UP — Josh Orton is now a senior policy adviser to the secretary at the Department of Labor. He previously was a senior adviser to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

TRANSITIONS — Chai Karve will be a speechwriter for Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. He previously was a staff writer/editor at American Bridge 21st Century. … Katherine Martin is joining Rock Creek Advisors as a managing director. She currently is head of international regulatory policy and supervisory cooperation at the SEC. … Heather Douglass is joining Pinkston as a senior account executive. She previously was comms director for Rep. Roger Williams (R-Texas).

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Energy Secretary-designate Jennifer Granholm … DNC chair Jaime Harrison … Biden director of scheduling Lisa Kohnke … Michael Steel of Hamilton Place Strategies … Omarosa Manigault Newman … Drew Godinich … Richard Parker … Facebook’s Tom Reynolds … Airbnb’s Clark Stevens … William Upton … POLITICO’s Glen Mazza … lobbyist Vinoda Basnayake … Kristina Baum … America Rising’s Jillian Davidson … Alex Key … Sarabeth Berman … Armstrong Williams … CAA’s Ali Spiesman … Bret Jacobson … McKinsey’s Matt Cooke … Alysia Santo … Matthew Hurtt of Pete Snyder’s campaign … Lisa Tozzi … Chris Barron

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Do you have the secret ballot roll call from the Cheney vote? Drop us a line at [email protected] or individually: Tara Palmeri, Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

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