Poland Could Rely Mostly on Clean Energy by 2040, Think Tank Finds

(Bloomberg) — Coal-dependent Poland could plug its economy almost solely to zero-emission energy sources in less than two decades, the latest report by Instrat think tank showed as the new cabinet is betting on quicker energy transition.

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Warsaw-based Instrat is working closely on energy issues with the next government, whose incoming Prime Minister Donald Tusk will deliver an opening speech on Tuesday morning. Unlike the outgoing cabinet, the next administration sees energy transformation as a key plank of its agenda and has pledged to accelerate investment in renewables.

“Energy transformation will not succeed without social support and I really hope that in his speech Donald Tusk will confirm the ambitious transformation goals, which were announced in the election campaign,” Michal Smolen, Instrat’s analyst and co-author of the report, told Bloomberg. “We need a strong climate leadership.”

Tusk’s Civic Platform, the biggest party in the next ruling coalition, sees renewable energy sources accounting for 68% of energy production with a ban on coal in heating of households beyond 2030. These assumptions were built on Instrat’s March report. In its latest analysis, the think tank sets even more ambitious goals.

It now predicts that renewable sources will account for 81%-92% of energy production in 2040, depending on whether the European Union’s largest eastern economy builds its first nuclear power station by that time. The share of coal and gas is seen slashed to 5%-8%, while currently the country generates around 70% of energy from coal, making it Europe’s most carbon-intensive nation.

The path to clean power will be bumpy and costly though, with several risks seen on the way. Instrat said they include potential delays in building the nuclear power plant and deploying offshore wind projects as well as headwinds related to costly grid expansion.

The recent spat in parliament in Warsaw over easing the onshore wind rules also highlights unexpected pitfalls facing the new government.

Costly Transformation

Poland will need to invest more than 1 trillion zloty ($248 billion) from 2026 to 2040 to meet the most ambitious scenario envisaged in the report. The “delayed transition scenario” would require about 60% of that amount, but would mean cutting carbon dioxide emissions by half, instead of 68%.

Tusk announced on Friday that he will form a new industry ministry in the coal-rich Silesia region located in southern Poland, to deal with “the most burning issues of coal mines and Silesia as a whole.”

Instrat believes that its scenarios will become a signpost for the new government, which will have to rewrite the nation’s energy policy to adjust it to European Union’s climate agenda.

“We want this to be an important voice in the discussion,” Smolen said.

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