Playbook: SCOTUS steps into the 2024 spotlight
SCOTUS #SCOTUS
With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — DEAN PHILLIPS’ presidential campaign is launching a new minutelong ad in New Hampshire starting today, titled “The New Hampshire Way,” directly attacking President JOE BIDEN, who the narrator says has “ordered New Hampshire to step aside” from its place as the first nominating state on the presidential calendar.
The ad touts Phillips’ focus on the Granite State, where it says he is meeting voters “in diners, on street corners and in taverns — the way it has always been done,” deeming Phillips “a common-sense problem solver who can defeat DONALD TRUMP.” Our colleague Holly Otterbein reports the campaign is spending $250,000 on the ad, which will run until Dec. 26. Watch the 60-second spot
Moving to the left: Phillips is also rolling out a major policy position today, endorsing “Medicare for All” legislation, Holly also scoops, which would align him with the progressive wing of the party in stark opposition to Biden’s previous stance on the issue.
Chief Justice John Roberts, Justice Clarence Thomas and Justice Samuel Alito attend a private ceremony for Sandra Day O’Connor at the Supreme Court in Washington, Dec. 18, 2023. | Jacquelyn Martin/AP
BALL’S IN THEIR COURT — A remarkable scene unfolded in Washington yesterday: Biden stood up and publicly addressed the group that will have more direct bearing on the 2024 presidential election than any other.
Not at a briefing to high-powered campaign donors. Not in a speech to wavering suburbanites or angry young votes. At the Washington National Cathedral, to the United States Supreme Court.
“To her, the Supreme Court was bedrock,” Biden said, eulogizing the late Justice SANDRA DAY O’CONNOR. “It was a vital — a vital — line of defense for the values and the vision of our republic.”
Within hours, it became exceedingly clear just how vital the court will be to American democracy — how it will be quickly forced to answer multiple and fundamental questions central to the 2024 election.
Already the court has been asked to weigh in on whether Trump, Biden’s likely rival, is immune from criminal prosecution for his actions surrounding the 2020 election, as he has claimed in court.
Other key questions from Trump’s many cases appear headed to First Street NE soon enough, including the constitutionality of a proposed presidential gag order and whether Trump can be held liable in civil lawsuits connected to the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, to say nothing of the policy issues (like restrictions on the abortion pill) that the court will address before November.
Last night an even more fundamental question — on Trump’s access to the ballot — landed in the justices’ laps.
In a stunning 4-3 decision, the Colorado Supreme Court held that Trump had engaged in what amounted to insurrection following the 2020 election and, as such, should be barred from holding future office under the 14th Amendment.
Said the majority, “President Trump did not merely incite the insurrection. Even when the siege on the Capitol was fully underway, he continued to support it. These actions constituted overt, voluntary, and direct participation in the insurrection.”
The decision immediately shook the political world, as the court anticipated: “We are mindful of the magnitude and weight of the questions now before us. We are likewise mindful of our solemn duty to apply the law, without fear or favor, and without being swayed by public reaction to the decisions that the law mandates we reach.”
The ruling also, as our colleagues Adam Wren and Josh Gerstein wrote last night, “underscored the extraordinary messiness of a presidential campaign litigated as much in the courtroom as on the campaign trail — with cases sprawling across multiple jurisdictions, a cast of characters rivaling a Russian novel and a former president who has perfected the art of working the legal system to his advantage over decades of close brushes with the law.”
The impact on the primary seems clear enough: If anything, it will help Trump, rallying his most fervent supporters and forcing even his most bitter rivals to defend him (more on that below).
The general election is another matter: “The constant controversy surrounding Trump is not, of course, a clear political benefit for him,” Adam and Josh write. “Many voters grew so weary of it in 2020 that they chose to oust him from office.”
This much is clear: The Colorado case will be in the hands of Chief Justice JOHN ROBERTS & Co. posthaste. The decision is stayed until Jan. 4, giving Trump time to appeal, which his campaign is vowing, of course, to do.
As long as the case is being litigated, Trump’s name will stay on the ballot. Colorado’s Republican primary doesn’t take place until March. But there are reasons why the court will want to act fast, starting with the fact that the case is one of dozens across the country citing Section 3 of the 14th Amendment in trying to get Trump booted from the ballot.
The conventional wisdom is that there is no way that the Supreme Court will agree to evict a former president, currently leading in many polls, from Americans’ ballots under vague and untested Reconstruction-era language. One former Trump lawyer who has been critical of the ex-president, TY COBB, yesterday predicted a 9-0 decision.
Trump’s current legal team is highly confident, based in no small part on the narrow split in the state court’s decision and the fierce dissent from Justice CARLOS SAMOUR — like the rest of the court, appointed by a Democratic governor — who railed against the majority in a fiery dissent.
“Our government cannot deprive someone of the right to hold public office without due process of law,” Samour wrote, adding that the decision “risk[s] chaos in our country.”
Still, the court has options, and how it navigates those options could tell us a lot about the role it intends to play in 2024. They could address the merits and answer the underlying question: Is Trump an insurrectionist barred from the ballot under the 14th Amendment? More likely, they could reject the decision on procedural grounds or a lack of due process.
We also know this: 2024 will be full of surprises, and if the justices fail to defy expectations this time around, they’ll have plenty more chances to come.
INCIDENTALLY — “Nearly a Quarter of Trump Voters Say He Shouldn’t Be Nominated if Convicted,” by NYT’s Maggie Haberman, Alan Feuer and Ruth Igielnik: “Another 20 percent of those who identified themselves as Trump supporters went so far as to say that he should go to prison if he is convicted in the federal case in Washington in which he stands accused of plotting to overturn the 2020 election. And 23 percent of his supporters said they believe that he has committed ‘serious federal crimes,’ up from 11 percent in July.”
Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
A message from Instagram:
New federal legislation will give parents a say in teen app downloads.
According to a new poll by Morning Consult conducted in November 2023, more than 75% of parents believe teens under 16 shouldn’t be able to download apps without parental permission.1
Instagram wants to work with Congress to pass federal legislation that gets it done.
Learn more.
THE COLORADO REACTIONS …
HE SAID, XI SAID — Chinese President XI JINPING “bluntly told President Joe Biden during their recent summit in San Francisco that Beijing will reunify Taiwan with mainland China but the timing of when that will occur has not been decided, according to three current and former U.S. officials,” NBC’s Kristen Welker, Courtney Kube, Carol Lee and Andrea Mitchell scoop this morning.
The details: “Xi told Biden in a group meeting attended by a dozen American and Chinese officials that China’s preference is to take Taiwan peacefully, not by force, the officials said. The Chinese leader referenced U.S. military leaders who have publicly predicted he plans to take Taiwan in 2025 or 2027, telling Biden they were wrong because he has no set timeframe, two current and one former official briefed on the meeting.”
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On the Hill
The Senate is in. The House is out.
3 things to watch …
At the White House
Biden in the morning will travel to Milwaukee, Wisconsin, where he will deliver remarks at the Wisconsin Black Chamber of Commerce in the afternoon. Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE and JOHN KIRBY will gaggle aboard Air Force One en route to Milwaukee.
VP KAMALA HARRIS in the afternoon will hold a meeting of the U.S. National Space Council. In the evening, Harris and second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF will host a holiday reception.
2024 WATCH
Chris Christie, left, and Nikki Haley, right, talk during a commercial break at a Republican presidential primary debate, Dec. 6, 2023, at the Moody Music Hall in Tuscaloosa, Ala. | Gerald Herbert/AP
THE PASSION OF CHRISTIE — A number of prominent New Hampshire Republicans who are keen on knocking Trump off track for the GOP presidential nomination think CHRIS CHRISTIE could screw things up for NIKKI HALEY by siphoning votes away from her in the state, Alex Isenstadt reports.
“Chris Christie is a monumental problem for Nikki Haley,” said MIKE DENNEHY, a former Republican National committeeman from New Hampshire who is neutral in the race. “They are both currently splitting the Independent vote, and Haley desperately needs those votes if she is to have a chance of knocking off Trump in New Hampshire.”
Christie advisers said no one has asked him to drop out, Alex reports. “And there is no indication he is slowing down either. On Friday, Tell It Like It Is PAC, a pro-Christie outside group, is set to begin a $3.5 million TV advertising campaign in New Hampshire.”
More top reads:
AMERICA AND THE WORLD
U.S. Navy destroyers have shot down 38 drones and multiple missiles in the Red Sea over the past two months. | U.S. Navy
THE COST OF WAR — With American warships patrolling the Red Sea to fend off attacks from Houthi drones and missiles, Pentagon officials are growing increasingly alarmed not just at the threat to U.S. naval forces and international shipping — but also at the spiking cost of the effort, Lara Seligman and Matt Berg report.
“U.S. Navy destroyers have shot down 38 drones and multiple missiles in the Red Sea over the past two months.” But the cost of using expensive naval missiles, which can reach up to $2.1 million, is causing some concern about the long-term viability among DOD officials.
Related read: “U.S. Leads Bid to Secure Red Sea, but Shipping Firms Remain on Edge,” by WSJ’s Costas Paris, Joe Wallace and Gordon Lubold
THE LATEST IN GAZA — The Israeli government has drawn up a new deal for the release of dozens of hostages from Gaza, our colleague Erin Banco reports — a proposal that comes after a round of talks between U.S., Israeli and Qatari officials this week.
The details: “The pact calls for a pause in fighting for up to a week and the release of 40 hostages, including many of the women and children Hamas had previously agreed to release, as well as hostages who require medical attention, according to the official. It also would allow for the flow of additional humanitarian aid into Gaza.”
Related reads: “Security Council searching for Gaza resolution that U.S. won’t veto,” by WaPo’s Karen DeYoung … “Hamas, Palestinian Rivals Conduct Talks About Governing Postwar Gaza,” by WSJ’s Benoit Faucon, Summer Said and Dov Lieber … “Why a potential Israel-Hamas cease-fire has so many names,” by Matt Berg, Joe Gould and Anthony Adragna
More top reads:
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TRUMP CARDS
RELEASE THE TEXTS — A federal judge yesterday ruled that Rep. SCOTT PERRY (R-Pa.) must disclose to prosecutors more than 1,600 emails, text messages and other communications related to the investigation into Trump’s effort to subvert the 2020 election, Kyle Cheney reports. “Chief U.S. District Judge JAMES BOASBERG concluded that the vast majority of the messages Perry exchanged — some with other members of Congress, some with members of the Trump administration and some with allies outside of government — could not be shielded from prosecutors by Perry’s constitutional protections as a member of Congress.”
CONGRESS
Then-acting OMB Director Russ Vought speaks during a press briefing at the White House, March 11, 2019, in Washington. | Evan Vucci/AP
CUT TO THE CHASE — When then-Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY negotiated the summer debt deal, House conservatives hated it — and punished him for it. But now they’re weaponizing the agreement heading into next month’s budget showdown, Jennifer Scholtes and Caitlin Emma report.
“Strategically, it’s a 180-degree turn by GOP hardliners. But six months after McCarthy and Democrats struck the debt accord, its terms have become more favorable to them — and they see it as a handy way to cut domestic spending. That’s because the deal mandates across-the-board cuts or caps if lawmakers can’t reach an agreement on funding the government for the fiscal year that ends in October.”
Behind the scenes, RUSS VOUGHT, Trump’s former budget chief, is talking strategy for the shutdown fight. Conservatives want Johnson to use the threat of the sweeping cuts to force Democrats into more specific spending reductions, as well as policy riders that limit federal support for abortion, among other changes.
More top reads:
ALL POLITICS
TRUMPED UP — Trump waded into the crowded Ohio GOP Senate primary yesterday, throwing his support behind businessman BERNIE MORENO and injecting the race with an influential voice as national Republicans have so far avoided the primary, Burgess Everett writes. Trump argued that “a successful political outsider” like Moreno is needed, while Sen. J.D. VANCE (R-Ohio) also endorsed Moreno earlier this year.
Tucker Carlson had some harsh words for those backing Ron DeSantis’ campaign.
Kevin McCarthy made it official.
Minnesota has a new state flag.
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: OFFER DECLINED — Rumors have been swirling that Peter Spiegel, U.S. managing editor of the Financial Times, was decamping to the WSJ to take over as the paper’s new Washington bureau chief. Playbook has learned that while Spiegel was indeed offered the gig, he’s staying put. Spiegel would not comment on the offer, but he told Playbook, “I’m very happy at the FT and I’m not going anywhere.”
OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a Christmas party thrown by N.Y. Mag’s Shawn McCreesh and Air Mail’s Harrison Vail at the Edition Hotel in Manhattan on Monday night: Maureen Dowd, Graydon Carter, Alessandra Stanley, Kaitlan Collins, Lis Smith, Alexandra Pelosi, Risa Heller, Carl Swanson, Stella Bugbee, Alex Levy, Ann Coulter, Vanessa Friedman, Pamela Paul, Lydia Polgreen, Angelo Roefaro, Adrian Lesser, Michael Grynbaum, Ben Mullin, Clare Malone, Charlotte Klein, Lachlan Cartwright, Nathan King and Michael Hainey.
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Jonah Wendt is joining Advancing American Freedom, the nonprofit advocacy organization founded by former VP Mike Pence, as a policy adviser. He previously was a legislative staffer for Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas). The move notably comes as Trump has been sharply critical of Roy and even called for a primary against the longtime lawmaker.
WHITE HOUSE ARRIVAL LOUNGE — Jackie McGuinness is now comms director for the Office of Science and Technology Policy. She most recently was press secretary at NASA and is a Biden campaign alum.
TRANSITIONS — Brittany McCants is now a partner in Barnes & Thornburg’s labor and employment department. She previously was counsel at Bass, Berry & Sims. … Joe Gilson is now director of government affairs at the American Farm Bureau Federation, where he will lead Farm Bill efforts. He most recently handled agriculture and energy policy for Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and is a USDA alum.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY: AP’s Mary Clare Jalonick … PBS’ Paula Kerger … Sonny Perdue … HuffPost’s Jen Bendery … Murray Waas … Susan Neely of the American Council of Life Insurers … POLITICO’s John Yearwood, Francis Chung,Ariel Braunstein and Tyler Brady … Mandi Rogers Thorpe … Lauren Milnes of Rep. Hakeem Jeffries’ (D-N.Y.) office … Hannah Thoburn of Senate Foreign Relations …… Hilary Nachem Loewenstein of Bully Pulpit Interactive … Brooke Goldstein of the Lawfare Project … former Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-Colo.) … former Sen. Jean Carnahan (D-Mo.) (9-0) … Ryan Davis of Carlton Fields … Catherine Pino of D&P Creative Strategies … Louise Linton … Irene Bueno of NVG LLC
Send Playbookers tips to [email protected] or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton, producer Andrew Howard and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
A message from Instagram:
More than 75% of parents want to approve the apps teens under 16 download.
According to a new poll from Morning Consult, more than 75% of parents agree: Teens under 16 shouldn’t be able to download apps from app stores without parental permission.1
Instagram wants to work with Congress to pass federal legislation that gets it done.
Learn more.
1“US Parents Study on Teen App Downloads” by Morning Consult (Meta-commissioned survey of 2,019 parents), Nov. 2023.