Pistons could land rights to Wembanyama in lottery, but best odds are fifth

The NBA changed its draft lottery rules in 2019 to give the bottom three teams an equal opportunity at landing the No. 1 pick.

It benefitted the Detroit Pistons in 2021, when they had the second-worst record and won the lottery for Cade Cunningham. Last year, the Pistons had the third-worst record and dropped two spots to fifth, taking Jaden Ivey.

The Pistons finished with the worst record in the league this season (17-65) but have the same 14 percent odds at winning tonight’s lottery (8 p.m., ESPN) as do the teams that tied for the second-worst record, Houston and San Antonio (both 22-60).

This is a particularly good year to win the lottery because the prize is Victor Wembanyama, a 7-5 center from France whose talents could quickly transform a franchise. He is widely regarded as the best draft prospect since LeBron James 20 years ago.

In seven of the past eight years, the team with the best odds (or tied for the best odds) of winning the lottery landed the No. 1 pick. The only exception was 2019, when New Orleans, with a 6 percent chance of winning, moved up six spots and selected Zion Williamson with the top pick.

The Pistons’ odds for each position:

No. 1: 14.0 percent

No. 2: 13.4 percent

No. 3: 12.7 percent

No. 4: 12.0 percent

No. 5: 47.9 percent

Here are the results from five lottery simulations on Tankathan.com:

1. Chicago won the lottery despite having only a 1.8 percent chance. The Pistons were second.

2. Washington, with a 6.7 percent chance, won it. The Pistons finished second again.

3. Portland, with a 10.5 percent chance, won it. The Pistons dropped to fourth.

4. Washington won it again. The Pistons dropped to fifth.

5 San Antonio, with a 14 percent chance, won it. The Pistons finished fourth.

Most analysts and mock drafts see a significant gap between the first and second picks.

Wembanyama averaged 21.6 points, 10.5 rebounds and 3.1 blocked shots in 33 games with Metropolitans 92 in France’s top professional league. He can stretch the floor, though his 3-point shooting needs work (28.3 percent, averaging five attempts per game).

The intrigue in the June 22 draft will start with the second pick, which could be a choice between 6-2 point guard Scoot Henderson of the G League Ignite and 6-9 wing Brandon Miller of Alabama.

Henderson has elite speed and has been likened to Russell Westbrook. He averaged 16.5 points, 5.4 rebounds and 6.5 assists in 19 G League games. He struggled from distance, however (27.5 percent on 3-pointers).

Miller can handle the ball and shoot the 3 (38.4 percent). He averaged 18.8 points and 8.2 rebounds for the Crimson Tide, who were ranked No. 1 in the nation heading into the NCAA Tournament but lost to San Diego State in the Sweet 16. Miller’s alleged involvement in a tragic shooting on campus might prompt some teams to pass on him, however.

Odds for No. 1 pick:

Detroit 14.0 percent

Houston 14.0 percent

San Antonio 14.0 percent

Charlotte 12.5 percent

Portland 10.5 percent

Orlando 9.0 percent

Indiana 6.8 percent

Washington 6.7 percent

Utah 4.5 percent

Dallas 3.0 percent

Chicago 1.8 percent

Oklahoma City 1.7 percent

Toronto 1.0 percent

New Orleans 0.5 percent

More: Pistons reportedly interested in Monty Williams for coaching vacancy

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