Pistons blueprint isn’t banking on lottery win, but they’ll gladly take it

Troy Weaver takes a thoughtful pause, brow furrowed, before answering most questions of substance. But there was no pause or furrow last month when he was asked how this year’s NBA draft lottery factored into his Pistons blueprint.

“I’m not planning around the lottery,” he said with the same tone someone would use to say they weren’t about to jump in the ocean after a shark sighting. “I know people look at me crazy. Never depending on the lottery. I’m not. It’s exactly what it is – a lottery.”

But … doesn’t mean he won’t be thrilled if the Pistons have to wait until the very end of ESPN’s 8 p.m. telecast to learn their fate as they did two years ago. Ben Wallace is back to represent the Pistons – this time on the dais, vs. a remote stint in 2021 – and bring them the same good luck that resulted in Detroit landing the No. 1 pick for the first time in 51 years.

The prize then was Cade Cunningham, now at the heart of Weaver’s restoration, and the prize this time is even bigger – literally, at least. French phenom Victor Wembanyama, the 7-foot-5 teenager, is widely regarded as the most transformational prospect to enter the NBA draft since LeBron James in 2003.

The Pistons have been involved in 15 of the 39 lotteries since its inception in 1985. The only one in which they’ve moved up was the 2021 lottery. (The Pistons picked second in the 2003 lottery, taking Darko Milicic, with a pick that belonged to Memphis and was only protected if it had been No. 1)

Weaver was hired as Pistons general manager in June 2020, amid the pandemic, so this will be his fourth lottery. In 2020, the Pistons were bumped from fifth to seventh and selected Killian Hayes. In 2022, they also dropped two spots, from third to fifth, and took Jaden Ivey.

The Pistons go into the 2023 lottery at No. 1, which means they can pick no lower than fifth in the June 22 draft. They have a 14 percent chance to land the No. 1 pick, a 13.4 percent chance to pick second, a 12.7 percent chance to pick third and a 12.0 percent chance to pick fourth – odds shared by both Houston and San Antonio. The lottery will determine the top four picks. The likeliest single outcome for the Pistons is to pick fifth at 47.9 percent.

NBA draft analysts agree that there is very little consensus among front offices over the order of top prospects once Wembanyama goes first. G League Ignite point guard Scoot Henderson and Alabama forward Brandon Miller are generally considered in the next tier of prospects. Twins Amen and Ausar Thompson over Overtime Elite are also potential top-five picks.

The Pistons have depth in a young core, all acquired on Weaver’s watch, that includes six players 22 or younger – Cunningham, Ivey, Hayes, Jalen Duren, James Wiseman and Isaiah Stewart – plus Isaiah Livers and Marvin Bagley III, both 24. Only Livers among that group is a wing player. Cunningham has the size and skill set to play there but his true value is in his playmaking skills on the ball.

Whether that roster makeup will hold any sway in Weaver’s decision-making likely will be determined by where the Pistons land in the lottery. The fact they have four young big men in Stewart, Duren, Bagley and Wiseman almost surely wouldn’t dissuade Weaver from adding Wembanyama to the mix. If he sees Henderson as the second coming of Derrick Rose – the veteran the 19-year-old has been most often compared to for his size and explosiveness – then the presence of Ivey and Hayes isn’t likely to push him in another direction.

If the worst-case scenario plays out and the Pistons pick fourth or fifth, the fact the lottery’s depth is in wing players will at least soften the blow. Players like the Thompson twins, Miller, Villanova freshman Cam Whitmore and Houston freshman Jarace Walker all would fill a roster need in addition to holding the appeal of high-ceiling talent desired in high lottery picks.

Whatever happens, the Pistons will go into the 2023-24 season with a deep young core and around $30 million in cap space to augment it – plus the likely return of veterans Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks to serve as scoring anchors for the starting and bench units. Those are the tangible assets breathing life into Weaver’s blueprint. Winning the lottery would be a terrific bonus; not winning it isn’t going to cause any hand-wringing or teeth-gnashing.

“I think we have enough in this building to continue to move forward and compete,” Weaver said. “Wherever we land, we land. I’m not planning around what pick we get. That’s not who I am. I was raised to make a dollar out of 15 cents and I’m going to continue to do that. Now, will I celebrate with everybody (if the Pistons win it)? Absolutely. But I don’t walk around like that. My grandparents would turn over, talk about luck. I’ve got too much faith for that.”