Phillies vs Blue Jays Predictions, Picks, Odds: Gausman Racks Up the Strikeouts

Kevin Gausman has been lights out as Toronto’s ace this season, and we expect similar results tonight when the dynamic right-hander faces a Phillies team that strikes out a lot. Read more in our Phillies vs. Blue Jays betting picks.

Who says you need hits with runners in scoring position to win games? The Toronto Blue Jays scored the winning run in last night’s series opener against the Philadelphia Phillies on a hit by pitch, in what was another low-scoring game for the Blue Jays.

Toronto has been an Under machine lately and don’t be surprised if it’s more of the same in tonight’s Game 2, as Aaron Nola toes the rubber against Kevin Gausman. 

I break down the MLB odds and bring you the best bet in my MLB picks and predictions for Phillies vs. Blue Jays.

Phillies vs Blue Jays odds Phillies vs Blue Jays predictions

The Toronto Blue Jays have been cashing Under tickets like it’s going out of style, cashing it in 15 of their last 18 games. Unfortunately, the early money has driven tonight’s total down to a point where I’m looking elsewhere for our best bet.

Clearly, the lineup has not lived up to expectations, but we can’t overlook how great the Jays’ pitching staff has been. Kevin Gausman is a big part of that.

Gausman has been one of the best pitchers in the American League all season long. He is pitching to a 3.73 expected ERA and leads the AL in strikeouts and FIP. The right-hander’s K-rate ranks in the 95th percentile and now he’s going against a Philadelphia Phillies team that has the 11th-highest K-rate in the majors when facing right-handed pitchers. Overall, Philly’s K-rate is at 24.4% since coming out of the All-Star break.

Gausman will have a great chance to work deep into this game and rack up those Ks. The Phillies also have an offense that has been a bit of a disappointment, ranking just 13th in OPS and 17th in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers this season.

On top of that, Gausman has one of the longest leashes in baseball, averaging 99.5 pitches and 6.04 innings per start. Gausman has gone Over 6.5 strikeouts 14 times in his 23 starts, and I like the Blue Jays ace to deliver another strong performance tonight.

My best bet: Kevin Gausman Over 6.5 strikeouts (-160 at SIA)

Phillies vs Blue Jays same-game parlay

Kevin Gausman o6.5 Ks

u8.5 alt total

Realmuto u0.5 hits 

Per usual, our same-game parlay starts off with our best bet which is Gausman to go Over 6.5 strikeouts. And let’s make Gausman the theme of this SGP by taking the Under on an alternate total of 8.5.

The Blue Jays have gone 15-3 to the Under over their last 18 games. Having a guy on the mound like Gausman helps that, but it’s the combination of an underperforming offense that has made the Under such a reliable bet over this stretch. 

While John Schneider’s club have solid numbers against right-handed pitchers, they still struggle to come up with that “clutch” hit. The Blue Jays rank 28th in OPS with runners in scoring position, and only the Oakland A’s and the Kansas City Royals are worse.

Meanwhile, J.T. Realmuto is hitting just .247 for the season and is striking out a bunch, ranking in the 29th percentile in K-rate. He is also just 2-16 with six strikeouts in his career against Gausman. 

I’m adding the Under 0.5 hits for Realmuto, giving us a +450 payday if all three legs hit.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Phillies vs Blue Jays moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Blue Jays opened this interleague matchup as -145 home favorites and that’s where they remain as of Wednesday afternoon. I’d have a slight lean toward the home team in this matchup at this price because Gausman has been the much more reliable of the two starters.

However, the main play here is the total. It hit the board following last night’s game at an even 8, but it was bet down to 7.5 as of Wednesday morning. 

I broke down above how Gausman can be successful in this matchup, but I won’t be shocked if Aaron Nola has one of his better starts as well. The Phillies right-hander has been better than his ERA claims, with his xERA sitting at a respectable 3.81. Nola also has solid numbers when it comes to K-rate and opponent xBA.

This game also features two strong bullpens, with Philly ranking ninth in xFIP and seventh in strikeouts per nine innings while Toronto ranks sixth in both of the categories. 

I played the Under 8 last night, and I feel comfortable leaning Under 7.5 for this one as well.

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Trend to know

The Under is 15-3 in the Blue Jays’ last 18 games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Blue Jays

Phillies vs Blue Jays game info Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON Date: Wednesday, August 16, 2023 First pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET TV: NBCSP, Sportsnet Starting pitchers

Aaron Nola (9-8, 4.49 ERA): It’s been a season full of peaks and valleys for Nola. The right-hander has been in poor form lately, surrendering 13 runs (11 earned) on 22 hits over his last three starts against Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and Washington.

Kevin Gausman (9-6, 3.04 ERA): Gausman is currently second in AL Cy Young odds at +400 behind only Gerrit Cole. The right-hander has pitched at least six innings and limited opponents to two earned runs or fewer in seven of his last 12 starts.

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