Phillies vs Astros World Series Game 2 Player Prop Bets: Valdez Leads the Charge

After a shock win last night, Philadelphia will look to go up 2-0 on Houston. With plenty of MLB betting picks on the board, our three favorites will zone in on Astros’ hurler Valdez to pick up the win, and two hitters to make some noise — find out who!

It’s Game 2 of the World Series after an incredible contest in Game 1 that saw the Philadelphia Phillies take a 1-0 advantage over the Houston Astros. That win saw Philadelphia become the favorite in the World Series odds.

The Phillies became just the sixth team to overcome a 5-0 deficit in the World Series. More improbable? Astros Manager Dusty Manager tasted one of those defeats for the second time, the first coming in 2002. 

Last night we went two for three in our MLB player prop picks, including a clutch 10th-inning cash from Alex Bregman. We’ll look to keep that momentum rolling. What players will step up for the Astros trailing for the first time this postseason? Find out my favorite MLB player props for Game 2 of this World Series matchup, and check out our Phillies vs. Astros picks and predictions for more.

Phillies vs Astros prop picks

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Phillies vs Astros Game 2 props Framber’s night

Framber has been one of my favorite pitchers to have a handicap on it because it’s been relatively straightforward. I don’t have the exact numbers, but if you’ve faded teams ranking at or above league average in ground ball rate against him, you’ve done well.

Valdez leads the league among qualified pitchers in ground ball rate, with an insane 67% of his pitches going for ground balls. On the other hand, the Phillies rank right at the league average ground ball rate. So we will stay tested and true to our season-long method of fading their hitters.

You can look at several different markets. Outs recorded, hits allowed, and earned runs are all appealing but far too juicy. I’m gonna swing big to grab him to record a win at +280 on DraftKings. That’s the best value on the board. My projections expect the Astros to win this game around 65% of the time. I expect Valdez to be a big part of that.

I assume that, eventually, the Astros hitters can get the job done on the hitting front before Valdez exits. Tonight feels like a “mentality” game for the Astros, and I’d back their hitters vs. nearly anyone in this spot. We expect Valdez to go long enough to grab the win as well. He last navigated this Phillies’ lineup a month ago in the last game of the season. He went the necessarily five innings and was barely pushed, surrendering just two hits.

This isn’t complicated. We’re sticking with the narratives: Valdez gives a big performance on the mound in a series the Astros are trailing in, and the hitters respond. 

Framber Valdez Prop: To record a win (+280 at Draftkings)

Bryce blast

One of the things that would surprise me the most about this series is if Bryce Harper doesn’t eventually go yard in it. This postseason has been defining for him and his career. He’s led the Phillies to this point with a postseason-leading five home runs. He had a good night last night, going 2 of 4 from the plate, but we never got a Bryce “moment.” We should get it tonight. 

In a vacuum, I love Valdez’s matchup tonight against the Phillies, but if there’s one player that can make him pay, It’s Harper. Valdez’s insane ground ball numbers mask some of his issues. His hard-hit rate is near the Bottom 20% of qualified pitchers in baseball, and this is something that Harper can obviously attack.

While the sinker has been the pitch that Valdez has made a career on, it’s also a pitch that has caused him a few issues. When batters can actually barrel it up, they hit it hard. He’s posted a 47% hard-hit rate on that pitch. Guess what? Harper gets great power on lowball pitches.

He’s the only player in the Phillies lineup that ranks in the Top 3 of hard-hit rate against the sinker and slider. Here’s to Valdez leaving one of those hanging, and the way Harper is hitting right now, he won’t miss it. My projections are making this number +625, so while I don’t see “value” on the number, the situation is right. 

Bryce Harper Prop: Over 0.5 home runs (+600)

Yordan on the board

It isn’t pretty, but based on my projections of this game, this prop has the best value. Yordan Alvarez is -175 on DraftKings to get a hit; my projections have this number at -265. That’s a remarkable differential and one I refuse to pass up.

Alvarez has been relatively quiet since his walk-off home run against the Seattle Mariners in the ALDS. Last night he went 0-for-4 at the plate and will look to avoid his second back-to-back hitless postseason games. We like him to do just that.

This follows the earlier narrative established that we’re backing the Astros’ best players to step up when needed. Alvarez is the best player on this Houston Astros roster. Regarding the particular matchup, it’s a good one for him.

If there is a flaw in Zack Wheeler’s game, it comes in the form of his offspeed pitches. Both the curve and changeup have posted a negative run value for him on the season. Against Alvarez, Wheeler will be careful to stay away from the fastball. Virtually all pitchers do, as he’s one of the best fastball pitchers in the game.

Alvarez doesn’t have remarkable numbers against offspeed stuff, but they are good enough. The combination of Wheeler having to give in to Alvarez with some of his weaker pitches, plus Alvarez raising his game when his team needs it will be enough for him to record a hit. Consider parlaying this with a winner of your choice or another prop that you like.

Yordan Alvarez Prop: To record a hit (-175)

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