Perry’s Mailbag: Trying to find the next Tom Brady? Don’t waste your time

Based on the questions this week, sure seems like our audience is interested in the quarterback position. Color me shocked. 

Of course we all know just how important the position is to the overall success of any franchise. But the importance of the position is highlighted this weekend with four of the best passers in the NFL this season — including the two most likely to receive MVP votes in Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes — set to light up the AFC and NFC championship games. 

What’s next for the Patriots at that spot? Who will they like in the draft? Who might they like to scoop up as a veteran option? 

Let’s get into it…

Based on what we know about Bill Belichick and what he’s publicly touted as being important at the quarterback position, I’d guess he really likes Mac Jones. Anticipation. Accuracy. Production in the nation’s toughest conference. Four years in college. An underdog at one point in his college career who understands what it’s like to have to earn a role. 

Here’s the argument for Lance, though, from scouting notes passed along by Belichick when he was with the Browns: “[No. 1] is to make good decisions.” (Lance threw 28 touchdowns against zero interceptions in his one full season as a starter.) “Then arm (Lance’s is better than Jones’), size (Lance is bigger), physically tough (Lance and Justin Fields are the two toughest runners in the class, and Lance at times seeks out contact to punish defenders).”

Curran: Make no mistake, there aren’t any solutions in the current QB room

There’s plenty more in there that’s worth perusing. And many of the in-demand characteristics listed by Belichick describe Jones. But would Belichick change his definition of what makes a good quarterback for 2021? Would it be different from what it was 30 years ago? If so, it might make sense to take a chance on a player with more impressive physical gifts as opposed to rolling with a lesser talent because he has other key traits.

Here’s a visual representation of why it might be hard for the Patriots (or any team for that matter) to pull the trigger on Jones early. It’s simply harder to win in today’s NFL as a pure pocket passer. If you’re looking for the next Tom Brady, that’s great. But you’ll be wasting your time unless that player has a supercomputer processor between his ears constructed over 20 years in the league. Dealing with pressure is part of today’s game, and the best quarterbacks in the game (save for those who’ve successfully defeated Father Time) are the ones who can avoid initial pressure to keep plays alive and stay ahead of the chains.

To me? As a believer in the importance of physical traits at the quarterback position? As a believer in the value of having a young quarterback on the roster around whom to build? The best-case scenario would be for Lance to fall to No. 15. Is that realistic? Maybe not. Quarterbacks will be in high demand in April, particularly the top-four guys. At that point, trading down might make sense. Especially for a team looking to address multiple spots with young talent.

Even if a talented pass-catcher fell to them at No. 15 — say Florida’s tight end Kyle Pitts — there appears to be enough depth in this class that it might be worth trading down, picking up additional picks and filling as many holes on the roster as possible. It’s a deep tackle class. It’s a deep receiver class. Those are spots that could potentially be addressed more than adequately in the late first, second or later. Corner might be worth pouncing on if one of the top-two guys are there. But…brace for it. Trading down is always a possibility for Bill Belichick. 

Depends on who’s there, Mark. Not sure the two guys you mention should mean they take their foot off the gas in their pursuit of a quarterback. (A trade for Matthew Stafford? Maybe Marcus Mariota? I see those guys as firmer bridges with the potential to impact draft strategy.)

When it comes to the two defensive spots you list, they’re both a little thin in terms of high-end talent this year is my understanding. Can’t force it at No. 15. But if Micah Parsons from Penn State or Kwity Paye from Michigan or maybe Greg Rousseau from Miami fall to them? Might be worth their consideration.

That might be my fault.

I’m with you here, Kieren. I actually would prefer Jaylen Waddle over consensus top receiver Ja’Marr Chase right now. Ever so slightly prefer him. We’ve seen Waddle win with speed. We’ve seen him separate. I think he can win inside and outside. We’ve seen him succeed with a couple of different quarterbacks in a couple of different offensive schemes. Chase had a monster year with Joe Burrow in a scheme run by Joe Brady, and then he sat out 2020.

While I think Chase is really talented and I’d have him as my No. 2 guy in the class, I have some questions about his ability to win at the NFL level given he’s not expected to be a 4.3-second 40-yard dash guy and he’s not expected to check in with, say, AJ Brown-level size (6-foot-1, 226 pounds). He’s a guy who wins with route-running and physicality but he’s listed at 6-foot-1, 208 pounds. He’s not built like Julio Jones or Calvin Johnson yet he may be drafted in the top five or six picks like they were.

Using one of their fourths to move up from No. 96 would make a lot of sense to me, Pat. Not just to fill in that gap that you mention. But also because that No. 96 pick will be the compensatory pick the Patriots got back for losing Tom Brady to free agency. Not sure Bill Belichick wants any rookie to be known as The Guy The Patriots Got In Return For Letting Tom Brady Walk. They’ll also get comp picks in return for Kyle Van Noy and Jamie Collins so maybe one of those gets tossed in a trade to improve their position.

Mike, there are so many places to go with this. Not because it’s a draft that’s absolutely loaded with defensive talent at the top. But because the offensive talent is so deep, any of the top defenders could slide into the teens. Hard to ignore Michigan edge defender Kwity Paye. He actually looks more like a 4-3 defensive end at 270-plus pounds. But he’s so athletic, I think Belichick could stand him up and play him in the John Simon role as the heavier right outside ‘backer opposite a lighter player (like Paye’s Michigan teammates Josh Uche or Chase Winovich).

The other options here would be Miami edge Greg Rousseau — another defensive end who is freaky enough to stand up but may need time to develop — Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons, corner Patrick Surtain from Alabama or corner Caleb Farley from Virginia Tech. At the end of the day, if I had to choose one from this group, with Stephon Gilmore potentially moving on, I’d invest in corner again and go with Surtain. It’s too important a position to leave alone this offseason. There are questions as to whether or not JC Jackson will hold up as a No. 1, and even if he does, he’s scheduled to be a free agent after the 2021 season. They need reinforcements.

Surtain would make a lot of sense at corner, Tucker. South Carolina’s Jaycee Horn and Florida State’s Asante Samuel Jr. (yep, the son of former Patriots corner Asante Samuel) could be Day 2 options. Linebackers Nick Bolton from MIssouri and Zaven Collins from Tulsa are names to keep in mind, too. Defensive tackles who’d make sense in Belichick’s scheme as run-pluggers? How about some monsters to play on the nose like Tedarrell Slaton from Florida (6-foot-5, 340 pounds) or Tyler Shelvin from LSU (6-foot-3, 345 pounds). 

Rutgers. Always Rutgers. Just kidding. Not always. But now that Greg Schiano is back as the coach there, then we have to be on top of those guys. The usual suspects from the SEC, too. Nick Saban’s guys at Alabama. Kirby Smart’s guys at Georgia. Belichick is close with former Vanderbilt head coach Derrick Mason (now the defensive coordinator at Auburn) so players Mason knows well are worth paying attention to.

The Patriots watched Jedd Fisch take the Arizona job late in the season but, if it’s going to happen, it’ll probably be another year or two before we start to see that pipeline take shape. Michigan — where newly-appointed Arizona defensive coordinator Don Brown spent years and where Josh McDaniels’ brother Ben works as an assistant — is another to keep an eye on. 

Think it’s possible to see him in a fullback-style role, Clare. That was one of the intriguing parts of Keene’s game coming out of Virginia Tech. He was comfortable blocking on the move and used out of the backfield quite a bit. He saw plenty of H-back reps for the Hokies. But through training camp as a rookie he was really used as a pretty traditional tight end. That might’ve been because the Patriots needed a tight end more than they needed a fullback. I think you could still argue that’s the case. If someone else seizes the tight end role, and if something happens where they need more depth at fullback, it wouldn’t shock me if they gave him a try there. 

If they want a more athletic option at tight end — if they’re looking for their Niners-style backfield blocker — then that could be Vitale. His roster spot for next season is no sure thing, but the idea of getting a better athlete on the field at that position is interesting.

Might be a little too early for Merrimac, Mass.’ own Pat Freiermuth, Wally. He’s the talented tight end out of Penn State who seems to suit the Patriots in terms of possessing the variable skill set they want from their tight ends. Florida’s Kyle Pitts could be available at No. 15. He’d be more of a playmaking receiver at the tight end spot and someone who can block on the move.

The receivers you may be looking at there would be (maybe) Alabama’s Jaylen Waddle or Devonta Smith. Minnesota’s Rashod Bateman and Purdue’s Rondale Moore are very different types — a big-bodied “X” and an explosive slot, respectively — but also would be fun additions in the middle of the first round. Could be a little early for those guys in the middle of the first, but maybe they’d make sense if the Patriots were to trade down. 

I still think the Patriots could get a significant piece back for Stephon Gilmore, even though he only has a year remaining on his deal, and even though he’ll likely want a new contract altogether wherever he ends up. He’s older than Jalen Ramsey, and Ramsey was in a different spot contractually when he was dealt, but for the Rams to give up two firsts and a fourth for him tells you how the elites at that position are valued.

Gilmore is on the other side of 30, but he’s only a year removed from being the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year. Could the Patriots nab a second-round pick from a team looking for immediate help at that spot? It’s not a good free-agent class at the position, and there are question marks in the draft after the top-two players. I’d look at the Cowboys, for instance, and wonder if they’d be willing to part with a second for Gilmore. They want to compete now. The owner is no stranger to splashy moves. That type of match makes sense to me. 

Maybe a sarcastic question, Dave, but we’ll tackle it anyway! Here’s a name to remember: Auburn’s Jamien Sherwood. Safety. Special teams experience. Good tackler. Good size at 6-foot-2, 220 pounds. The second round might be early for him, but he feels like a Patriots type — even though they’re pretty loaded up on box safeties with Kyle Dugger, Adrian Phillips and Patrick Chung on the roster.

Alabama’s Christian Barmore could end up going in the first round based on what he did in the College Football Playoff. His size makes him look like a nice fit as an end in a 3-4 type of scheme, but he has the quickness to get upfield and disrupt. The issue with him is that there were games last season where he disappeared so it wasn’t like he dominated throughout. Would the Patriots be comfortable taking a physical talent like that at No. 15? They might have to if they really want him. He could end up the top interior defensive lineman on a lot of boards based on his potential as an interior pass-rusher.

I like Christian Darrisaw of Virginia Tech for them, Mike. Rashawn Slater of Northwestern is an interesting guy, too, because he could play a number of positions along the offensive line. Probably a little early for Alabama’s Landon Dickerson — you may know him as the center who took the field with a torn up knee to snap the ball for the final few kneel-downs of the national championship game — but he’s another player who looks like a Patriots lineman. By draft time, we’ll know where Joe Thuney and David Andrews stand. Their whereabouts could impact how the Patriots approach the first few picks. 

The issue is, Dave, this is not a good year for defensive linemen. Paye, Rousseau, Georgia’s Azeez Ojulari, Penn State’s Jayson Oweh…they’re all edge defenders who could go in the first. But none of them are surefire stars at the next level. The defensive tackle class is even thinner. Barmore is a first-round talent who could slip into the second. NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah had Washington’s Levi Onwuzurike in the first round, but he’s sub-300 pounds and doesn’t look like a Patriots fit. If you’re desperate for big bodies to grind it out in the trenches in Foxboro, you may have to wait for Day 2 or 3. 

Linebacker. You need more snaps out of that group. They’re more impactful in the modern game. (I’m including inside and outside linebackers.) You can’t continue to get run over as the Patriots did at times last season, but if I had the choice between an impact linebacker (inside or out) and a defensive tackle, I’d go with the linebacker. Hightower coming back would change the conversation. That’s the biggest “add” the Patriots could make this offseason. But they need more than one playmaker there. 

Parsons (6-foot-3, 245 pounds) looks like a Patriots fit because he has the requisite size. Belichick likes his linebackers to be inching near that 250-pound range, and there just aren’t that many of those these days. Look at Notre Dame’s Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah. He’s 215 pounds and may go in the first round, according to some experts. That’s not the Patriots type. I don’t know if Parsons is a true Mike linebacker who’ll be captaining the defense for years to come, but he’s athletic enough to play Sam or Will, in my opinion, and he has the versatility to line up on the end of the line of scrimmage at times.  Really intriguing player. Speaking of Jeremiah’s mock draft, he had Parsons going to the Patriots at No. 15. 

Nick, I like where your head is at.

Steve, I like where your head is at. We’re going to try to do a deep dive on Collins and his potential fit in the Patriots defense in a future Next Pats episode. His size, versatility to play off the line and on, his instincts in coverage…did we mention his size? Yeah, all that stuff makes him look like he may be near the top of the list of our Prototypical Patriots linebackers this spring.

Let’s pick up the pace with these next few.

If Lance is there, go with Lance. If not and one of the top-two corners are there, go with one of them. Otherwise, if trading down wasn’t an option, I might roll with Mac Jones over any linebacker or defensive tackle available. 

Spicy! Like it, Doug. How about the Cowboys at No. 10? Would they move down five spots to take on Gilmore? I might make that call if Lance doesn’t hear his name called in the first nine selections. Under-the-radar defender? I’ve liked Carl Lawson since he was at Auburn and he’s quietly been pretty productive for the Bengals. Would be some edge help. Was in on six sacks last year, which isn’t a huge number, but he also generated 64 pressures, per Pro Football Focus. That was good enough for fourth among edge defenders.

I think he’s exactly what they like at running back. Good size. Runs through contact. Can catch. Wouldn’t surprise me if he was the top back on their board. Would I take him in the second round? No. Would it shock me if the Patriots took him in the second round? With Rex Burkhead and James White hitting free agency and with Damien Harris and Sony Michel coming off seasons when they battled injury? No.

Hit this briefly on Next Pats with Albert Breer, Birch. I think players with some off-the-field “red flags” could slide because teams will have a hard time getting comfortable with players they can’t meet in person. That may mean talented players slip in the draft, but you’d have to be comfortable taking that risk with limited exposure to the player. This is where Belichick’s relationships with certain coaches around the country could come into play. Their references will matter.

If the top-three quarterbacks are out of the picture for the Patriots — and I’m assuming they will be — I like the idea of a Marcus Mariota and Trey Lance combination at the position. Mariota would require a trade but he’s scheduled to make just $10 million in 2021. Lance could sit behind a pro and develop, watching an offense catered to a mobile quarterback designed by Josh McDaniels. Trading a third for Mariota and spending a first on Lance is a lot of capital at one position, but it’d be worth it. 

Yay.

Best: Robert Saleh. Worst: Dan Campbell.

Don’t see them getting away from giving smart players options in the offense. They may change some of the concepts they emphasize, but they’re always going to want smart players and they’re going to want to give those players all the tools they need to succeed regardless of situation. These are my words not yours, but “dumbing things down” doesn’t feel like something they’d want to do. All that said, it’s not rocket science. I think too much gets made of the system and how difficult it is to learn.

Agree to disagree! I think when you see he didn’t throw a pick in 2019, it’s fair to say he made pretty good decisions. But you don’t want to box-score scout so when you actually watch him you see him check down when necessary, he goes through progressions, he takes shots when they’re there. I think he’s more than accurate enough. I’m no mechanics expert, but he seems pretty clean, leading me to believe he’ll have a repeatable delivery as a pro.

But that’s part of fun watching these guys leading up to the draft. No two people will see the things the same way. I’ll continue to ask around about him and see what I come up with. He’ll be a fascinating projection all the way up to draft weekend because there just aren’t as many snaps to take in as there are for the other top guys at his position. 

One of the reasons Lance feels like a good fit is because he’s coming from a “pro” system. He’s been under center. He’s turned his back to a defense on play-action throws. Jones is a fit if you’re looking for accuracy from the pocket, which — thanks to Tom Brady — is always associated with the Patriots offense. I think Zach Wilson would fit in just about any system that’s not based on the quarterback run game. He looks a little slight for his legs to be the focal point of an attack.

One of each, Karen. (Not a quarterback in each of the first three rounds. But one veteran and one rookie. Go ahead and take multiple shots at the most important position on the roster.)

No. 

I don’t think Belichick would ever ignore the opportunity to add a talented evaluator to his front office, but to me it seems as though Dave Ziegler is set to step up and take on a lot of the responsibilities once held by Caserio.

The last time they had about $60 million in cap space, they went out and spent immediately on Gilmore. That was 2017. They brought aboard Brandin Cooks via trade. They signed Lawrence Guy, Rex Burkhead and Dwayne Allen. They ended up going into that season, per Miguel Benzan, with about $5 million in cap space in September. 

Robinson. But that’s unlikely. He should command in the range of $20 million per season. That’s what Keenan Allen got from the Chargers last offseason. They’re about the same age and pretty good comps for one another in terms of their level of play. 

Gilmore. 

Based on their history, it’s more likely they do a player-for-pick(s) deal than a player-for-player deal. I think the Patriots could add the kind of space-eater they like up front with a mid-round pick this year. 

LT Wynn, LG Onwenu, C Andrews, RG Mason, RT TBD. Could be Justin Herron at right tackle. Could be a rookie. Could be Marcus Cannon, if he comes back. Could be Onwenu. Let’s go with Darrisaw there just to get the people fired up. Why not, right? That’s not a bad-looking line in my opinion. 

Quarterback, receiver, offensive tackle, corner, outside linebacker, defensive tackle, tight end, inside linebacker.

Stafford isn’t as crazy as you may think. We’ll have more detail on that early next week…

Thanks to everyone who chipped in with questions this week. Looking forward to tackling another monster bag next week.