Pentagon sparks fresh AUKUS doubts on anniversary of Australia’s nuclear-powered submarine plans

Defence Minister Richard Marles insists AUKUS partners are working “at pace” to help Australia acquire nuclear-powered submarines after the United States revealed it would halve next year’s planned procurement of Virginia-class boats.

Under the Biden administration’s defence budget request released on Tuesday (Canberra time) the US Navy confirmed it would order just one of the fast-attack submarines in 2025, rather than two, pushing a projected saving of $US4 billion into future years.

Critics of the move, including vocal Democratic congressman Joe Courtney, who heads Washington’s so-called “AUKUS Caucus”, warned the decision would have a “profound impact” on both countries’ navies.

“If such a cut is actually enacted, it will remove one more attack submarine from a fleet that is already 17 submarines below the Navy’s long-stated requirement of 66,” the ranking member of the House Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee said.

Minister for Defence Richard Marles met with Representative Joe Courtney in Washington last November. (Kym Smith)

Already the US is struggling to ramp up its submarine production rate to an annual target of 2.33 so it can replace retiring boats in its own fleet and begin transfers of second-hand stock to Australia in the early 2030s.

At present, the US is only achieving around 1.2 to 1.3 boats each year due to labour shortages and supply chain delays following the COVID-19 pandemic, with the Navy not expected to consistently hit a two-per-year target until 2029.

Former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull told the ABC Australia’s future defence had become completely dependent on the United States.

“This is really a case of us being mugged by reality. I mean, there’s a lot of AUKUS cheerleaders, and anyone that has any criticism of AUKUS is almost described as being unpatriotic. We’ve got to be realistic here,” Mr Turnbull said.

“They’re not only producing about half as many submarines as they believe they need, but they also are not able to maintain the submarines they have.

“The reality is the Americans are not going to make their submarine deficit worse than it is already by giving or selling submarines to Australia and the AUKUS legislation actually sets that out quite specifically.”

One year on from AUKUS deal

In March last year the AUKUS leaders detailed a plan to begin transferring the first of at least three US Virginia-class boats in 2032 to avoid a capability gap as Australia’s Collins-class fleet is retired and British-designed submarines are built in Adelaide.

This week marks one year since Prime Minister Anthony Albanese joined British counterpart Rishi Sunak and US president Joe Biden at a San Diego Naval Base to outline the AUKUS “optimal pathway” for Australia to acquire nuclear-powered submarines.

Greens senator David Shoebridge described the latest US defence budget request as a failure for the AUKUS partnership that was “almost too big to wrap your head around” and predicted Australia would end up with “nothing”.

“When the US passed the law to set up AUKUS they put in kill switches, one of which allowed the US to not transfer the submarines if doing so would ‘degrade the US undersea capabilities’. Budgeting for one submarine all but guarantees this,” he warned.

Anthony Albanese, US President Joe Biden and UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak during the announcement in San Diego for Australia to acquire submarines through AUKUS. (Supplied)

Despite the Pentagon’s announcement, a spokesperson for Defence Minister Richard Marles said the government was confident of acquiring Virginia-class submarines from the United States before Australia begins to produce a newly designed boat with the United Kingdom.

“As we approach the one-year anniversary of AUKUS, Australia, the United States and United Kingdom remain steadfast in our commitment to the pathway announced last March, which will see Australia acquire conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarines”.

“All three AUKUS partners are working at pace to integrate our industrial bases and to realise this historic initiative between our countries,” a spokesperson for Mr Marles said in a statement.

Budget changes under new proposal

As part of the AUKUS deal, Australia will provide more than $4.5 billion to bolster America’s submarine industrial base, while the US aims to contribute a similar amount contingent on congressional negotiations over defence spending that are complicated by the Ukrainian war.

However, this week’s Pentagon budget proposal requests Congress to appropriate a further $US4 billion for the US submarine industrial base in 2025, and $US11.1 billion over five years, for a “historic” investment to expand production.

Retired Australian Army Major-General Mick Ryan told the ABC he was “concerned but not surprised” with the latest US defence budget request, pointing out there had been issues in the growth of the Pentagon’s budget for some time.

“The Americans spend a lot of money, they have the highest defence budget in the world but at the moment it’s probably not commensurate with the threat they have to face with China and Russia”.